[paulg]

This was one of the most discussed hands of the weekend. We did better than most in the auction but were still left with an interesting decision. You hold

IMPs, Love All

---

You have a long and complex auction where you learn that partner holds precisely

---

Partner may hold one jack.

All the opponents know about that your hand is that you have 4+ spades. They know partner's distribution and the number of (top 3) honours he has in each suit - vagaries of the auction means that partner will play any spade contract.

What contract would you like to be in?

[gnasher]

7NT if partner is playing it, otherwise 7♠. I want to be dummy so that RHO has a safe spade lead.

[PhilKing]

Are you trying to fool us with xxxs in the South hand?

[Cyberyeti]

PhilKing, on 2013-January-20, 17:55, said:

Are you trying to fool us with xxxs in the South hand?

No, but the 8♠ is a hugely important card in partner's hand which makes 7N laydown on a club lead, and you don't know if he has it.

I'm with gnasher.

[PhilKing]

I would pot 7NT.

Hearts could be 6-2 and spades 3-1, partner holding the 8 or 7x with 8 dropping.

[JLOGIC]

There is a 33 % chance that partner has the S8 even if they find the club lead right? This doesn't even really seem close.

Edit: Just realized the question might be 7S vs 7N. 7S seems better since partner might have 7x of spades and it's stiff 8. A more important issue is probably what gnasher said, if we can be dummy we should do that. If we are dummy or declarer in both spades and NT I pick spades.

[JLOGIC]

If they're going to lead a club, partner has the S7 and not the 8 on 26.66% of his spade holdings, and the S8 will be singleton on ~12.5 % of those times, so on a club lead we gain ~3.33% of the time by playing spades instead of NT if hearts arenot 6-2.

On the other hand, NT is better than spades when hearts are 6-2 and spades are 3-1 and partner has the S8. It is also better if 7S is going down on a club ruff, however if that is true we are likely getting lightner Xed anyways.

Probably the other factors are more important since this is pretty negligible. Overall I would say 7S by partner is the best.

[aguahombre]

Since Partner was first to name Spades, and we have made the auction confusing to the opponents, we get to decide between 7N and 7S based on who we think is more likely to lead out of turn so a Club cannot be led.

[bigbenvic]

I would bid 7nt. They'll know I have both red aces and if they have lots of the pips they may choose a passive lead so as not to give away anything hoping that the side suits are breaking badly and that my 13th trick disappears.

Yes they could lead a ♣ but I think in 7♠ a club lead is slightly higher than 7NT.

Also it picks up an imp when right ,and avoids the tiny chance of a club ruff at trick 1.

Edit I do like gnashers reason for 7♠ though and wish I'd have thought of that.

[paulg]

My partner wimped out and settled for the small slam which was trivial with the weaker hand playing it. There is also no interest in the play for the grand slam since singleton ♠8 is the only option for a make on a club lead. But the real interest focused on the play in the small slam when the strong hand declared.

Hands rotated to make South declarer.

---

South is in 6♠. West leads the ♣2 (4th from good suits, 2nd from 3+ small). What is your line?

[JLOGIC]

Win the ace and try to soul read it if an honor doesn't drop lol. Since you were nice enough to give me the 2 of spades I would go for the hero play if LHO has 8xx of spades, otherwise I will hope clubs are blocked.

[Fluffy]

It might be a hand where you make 7 but don't make 6 because of agression factors against 6 including attasck form queen, king and singleton club, wich are less atractive agaisnt grand.

Bidding 7♠ has the dissadvantage of telling opps that you have a long suit when they lead, leading away from a king or queen wich is short against 7NT is really unatractive.

About the play in 6♠ playing jack of clubs looks obvious.

[JLOGIC]

Fluffy, on 2013-January-21, 02:49, said:

About the play in 6♠ playing jack of clubs looks obvious.

Meh, that lead is a stiff a lot, and when clubs are 1-4 LHO probably has 3 or 4 spades a lot. True I will go down when LHO has 3 spades and has led from Hxx but it doesn't seem that likely.

Also, half the time RHO has Hx of clubs we can probably read it since he won't falsecard at trick 1 (eg, if they play ud and RHO plays the 8 we can probably change plans and play RHO for H8 even if he has a stiff spade). Assuming RHO will play an honest card at trick 1 which is like 100 % playing the ace only goes down half the time RHO has Hx of clubs and a stiff or void in spades. On the other hand, it it makes on stiff 2 of clubs and 3-4 spades on your left. Feels like playing the ace is a lot better if you factor in a stiff is much more likely than Hxx on opening lead IMO.

[Fluffy]

I didn't see the gambit, never done one yet. But if ♣2 is a singleton we aren't down yet playing low gotta count better, we must have 12+ tricks if we have all the aces. But then the play is consistent with a red singleton and doubleton club.

[JLOGIC]

Sry to spam the thread but a lot of times you can tell the difference between an Hxx and a stiff lead at the table anyways so that will also help. On a slow club lead I would not play opening leader for a stiff obv haha.

Quote

But if ♣2 is a singleton we aren't down yet playing low

We should probably should be, we relayed then bid 6S we cannot really be off an ace. Maybe if we were gambling with 8 solid x Ax xx or something. But their lead agreements are such that the 2 lead shows an honor or a stiff, and RHO is looking at all the honors so...

[Fluffy]

damn, quoted me before I could edit

[paulg]

When clubs are 3-2, you only go down by playing the ace when the lead is from KQ2 or 82 or 72, all of which would be anti-systemic leads. Otherwise the clubs are blocked.

[Phil]

Fluffy, on 2013-January-21, 03:08, said:

I didn't see the gambit, never done one yet. But if ♣2 is a singleton we aren't down yet playing low gotta count better, we must have 12+ tricks if we have all the aces. But then the play is consistent with a red singleton and doubleton club.

Aren't our spades too good for the gambit?

[WellSpyder]

Phil, on 2013-January-21, 08:21, said:

Aren't our spades too good for the gambit?

I don't think jlogic is talking about leading a low spade from hand to try to get a spade entry to dummy. Rather, he is suggesting cashing two top trumps, then the red suit aces and finally exiting with S2 to RHO's third spade. Assuming the lead was indeed a singleton club, then RHO will have to lead a red suit to dummy....

[Fluffy]

yeah I though that was called a gambit, except that wellspyder has LHO and RHO wrong

Who has made that coup ever?