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Pick a card any card

#1 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 06:51

IMPs - 3rd seat, favourable. You hold

AQ103
Q102
A862
53

Auction, with partner as dealer:
Pass-(1)-Double-(1) (Edit: So sorry, it was 1, not 1 response)
Pass-(3NT)-All Pass.

3NT=explained as good hand with (almost) running 6+club suit.
Your lead.
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#2 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 07:02

A
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#3 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 07:07

I hate underleading Axxx against 3NT, but I think in this case with the club suit threatening for 6 or 7 tricks, the spades favorably positioned for them, I'm down to leading a heart or a diamond (I could go REALLY passive and just lead a club, but I don't think that's correct as they are likely to set up spade tricks with that tempo).



A heart lead is tempting if partner holds KJxxx (not too likely, but not horrible either). For a diamond lead to be right, I need partner to have QJxxx or something close to it in addition to the A or K of hearts (or a club stopper...). I'll lead the heart Q or T (probably the T) since I don't need him to have anything but hearts for this to work out, and I need a parley for the diamonds to be right.


Edit: Ken's idea to see the dummy with the spade A is interesting. Either see that they don't have spades stopped or see an obvious switch, but I'm too worried about it losing big when dummy hits with KJxx of spades and we don't have 5 tricks off the top (and now they have 9).
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#4 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 10:42

A seems best. Combines the chance of running spades with a later diamond switch. You're gonna look silly if spades break across

AQTx // xxxx (dummy) // Kx // Jxx

but then again, leading a small spade is just too deep.
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#5 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 15:59

A, declarer seems to have solid suit and he is probably bidding it after hearing bid by his pd. It is a textbook agressive lead situation imo, we need to collect our tricks quick.
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#6 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 17:20

Sorry guys, a slight edit - responder had bid 1, not 1.
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#7 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 17:53

Well, diamond now. If pard can cooperate with the king, a spade switch might kill this. And if he happens to have KQ even better.

I'm sure Ken would now lead the HEART QUEEN :)
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#8 User is offline   dave_w 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 19:11

Great - we doubled because we didn't know what to lead and partner helped us by ... passing.

I lead the T. Because (1) it might hit partner's suit, (2) it's unlikely to give up th 9th trick (though it could give up a tempo) (3) partner won't play us for the J like they would if we lead the Queen (4) partner won't play back a heart (from dummy and their hand they'll know the Ten was a short suit lead and will hopefully find the spade switch).
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#9 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 19:23

View Postdave_w, on 2011-November-13, 19:11, said:

Great - we doubled because we didn't know what to lead and partner helped us by ... passing.

I lead the T. Because (1) it might hit partner's suit.


We doubled because it looked like a takeout double of 1C. Partner did help us by passing. Partner doesn't have hearts, because he helped us by passing. whatever I lead will not be a heart. If I had not doubled, then the heart ten would look pretty good.

This post has been edited by aguahombre: 2011-November-13, 19:26

"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#10 User is offline   S2000magic 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 20:55

A bit off-topic: "Pick a card, any card" is my line.

;)

2 (4th best) or 6 (3rd & 5th).
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#11 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 21:09

View Postaguahombre, on 2011-November-13, 19:23, said:

We doubled because it looked like a takeout double of 1C. Partner did help us by passing. Partner doesn't have hearts, because he helped us by passing. whatever I lead will not be a heart. If I had not doubled, then the heart ten would look pretty good.


My thoughts exactly. 2 for me.
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#12 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 21:42

Heart for sure, I would lead the Queen because it seems more straightforward somehow, but I can see the Ten working too.
Opener will often have a singleton heart on this auction.

I would have led the A against the original auction (1 response).
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#13 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2011-November-13, 23:34

The problem with small lead is, it is not really helping pd to switch to suit when it is right thing to do. He is likely to play it back.

I would lead T but if i was convinced to lead a , i would give a thought about Ace lead.
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#14 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:06

I see two possible leads. Either we lead the diamond ace (and continue with a high one if partner encourages, else try to find partner with the spade king or heart ace) or lead a heart. I think a small diamond is far too commital.

I think it is close between the heart queen and the diamond ace.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#15 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:14

What heart layout are the heart-leaders hoping for?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#16 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:34

A for me, I guess someone has said so already, but A is less likelly to give away the contract than A because we can run spades even if declarer has K, but running diamodns requires a lot more.
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#17 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:49

View Postgnasher, on 2011-November-14, 06:14, said:

What heart layout are the heart-leaders hoping for?


I am a heart leader. I am hoping for a layout where declarer does not have 9 unless i lead an ace, and I can set up some tricks in hearts.
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#18 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 07:14

Partner with an entry in hearts and the spade jack would also be good!
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#19 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 09:51

View PostJLOGIC, on 2011-November-14, 06:49, said:

I am a heart leader. I am hoping for a layout where declarer does not have 9 unless i lead an ace, and I can set up some tricks in hearts.

Yes, I gathered that, but I was hoping for a slightly more specific reply.

Given the way the auction started, do you think it possible that partner has A9xx or K9xx, or Jxxx plus an entry? Or are you hoping to get one heart trick and then switch?

Regardless, if we're going to lead hearts I think it's clear to lead the queen. That gives us more chance of getting partner in, may mislead declarer about the layout, and may smother declarer's jack.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#20 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2011-November-14, 11:47

I made my choice of the Q before reading the comments.

It really comes down to the elimination of other options, plus the possibility of a home run.

Leading either a spade or a diamond rates to give him an immediate trick, and my club holding suggests that he will score 6 or 7 clubs, plus the trick we give him on the opening lead (and a low diamond may give him two tricks early). That puts him too far ahead, in my view.

The heart almost can't give him a trick he hasn't got coming...and, if it does, we probably couldn't beat the contract anyway.

In the meantime, as little as A9xx in partner gives us an immediate beat (on a spade switch), if declarer has the stiff J. K9xx gives us a delayed beat. And the stiff J is the holding we are hoping for, and why the Queen seems the right choice, compared to the x or the 10.

And on many other hands, the heart succeeds by not being an immediate (or slow) loser. On such hands, the choice of the Q or the 10 probably matters not, but, generally speaking, the 10 loses more often than does the Q.

Partner's silence really doesn't tell us to stay away from hearts....we don't need anything like what he'd have to justify his bidding 2 over 1 or doubling then or later.
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