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IMPs - 3rd seat, favourable. You hold
♠AQ103
♥Q102
♦A862
♣53
Auction, with partner as dealer:
Pass-(1♣)-Double-(1♥) (Edit: So sorry, it was 1♥, not 1♠ response)
Pass-(3NT)-All Pass.
3NT=explained as good hand with (almost) running 6+club suit.
Your lead.
Pick a card any card
#1
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Posted 2011-November-13, 06:51
- Andy -
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#2
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Posted 2011-November-13, 07:02
♠A
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#3
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Posted 2011-November-13, 07:07
I hate underleading Axxx against 3NT, but I think in this case with the club suit threatening for 6 or 7 tricks, the spades favorably positioned for them, I'm down to leading a heart or a diamond (I could go REALLY passive and just lead a club, but I don't think that's correct as they are likely to set up spade tricks with that tempo).
A heart lead is tempting if partner holds KJxxx (not too likely, but not horrible either). For a diamond lead to be right, I need partner to have QJxxx or something close to it in addition to the A or K of hearts (or a club stopper...). I'll lead the heart Q or T (probably the T) since I don't need him to have anything but hearts for this to work out, and I need a parley for the diamonds to be right.
Edit: Ken's idea to see the dummy with the spade A is interesting. Either see that they don't have spades stopped or see an obvious switch, but I'm too worried about it losing big when dummy hits with KJxx of spades and we don't have 5 tricks off the top (and now they have 9).
A heart lead is tempting if partner holds KJxxx (not too likely, but not horrible either). For a diamond lead to be right, I need partner to have QJxxx or something close to it in addition to the A or K of hearts (or a club stopper...). I'll lead the heart Q or T (probably the T) since I don't need him to have anything but hearts for this to work out, and I need a parley for the diamonds to be right.
Edit: Ken's idea to see the dummy with the spade A is interesting. Either see that they don't have spades stopped or see an obvious switch, but I'm too worried about it losing big when dummy hits with KJxx of spades and we don't have 5 tricks off the top (and now they have 9).
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#4
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Posted 2011-November-13, 10:42
♠A seems best. Combines the chance of running spades with a later diamond switch. You're gonna look silly if spades break across
AQTx // xxxx (dummy) // Kx // Jxx
but then again, leading a small spade is just too deep.
AQTx // xxxx (dummy) // Kx // Jxx
but then again, leading a small spade is just too deep.
#5
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Posted 2011-November-13, 15:59
♠A, declarer seems to have solid ♣ suit and he is probably bidding it after hearing ♠ bid by his pd. It is a textbook agressive lead situation imo, we need to collect our tricks quick.
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#6
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Posted 2011-November-13, 17:20
Sorry guys, a slight edit - responder had bid 1♥, not 1♠.
- Andy -
We are all connected to each other biologically, to the Earth chemically, and to the rest of the universe atomically.
We're in the universe, and the universe is in us.
We are all connected to each other biologically, to the Earth chemically, and to the rest of the universe atomically.
We're in the universe, and the universe is in us.
#7
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Posted 2011-November-13, 17:53
Well, diamond now. If pard can cooperate with the king, a spade switch might kill this. And if he happens to have ♦KQ even better.
I'm sure Ken would now lead the HEART QUEEN
I'm sure Ken would now lead the HEART QUEEN
#8
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Posted 2011-November-13, 19:11
Great - we doubled because we didn't know what to lead and partner helped us by ... passing.
I lead the ♥T. Because (1) it might hit partner's suit, (2) it's unlikely to give up th 9th trick (though it could give up a tempo) (3) partner won't play us for the ♥J like they would if we lead the Queen (4) partner won't play back a heart (from dummy and their hand they'll know the Ten was a short suit lead and will hopefully find the spade switch).
I lead the ♥T. Because (1) it might hit partner's suit, (2) it's unlikely to give up th 9th trick (though it could give up a tempo) (3) partner won't play us for the ♥J like they would if we lead the Queen (4) partner won't play back a heart (from dummy and their hand they'll know the Ten was a short suit lead and will hopefully find the spade switch).
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Posted 2011-November-13, 19:23
dave_w, on 2011-November-13, 19:11, said:
Great - we doubled because we didn't know what to lead and partner helped us by ... passing.
I lead the ♥T. Because (1) it might hit partner's suit.
I lead the ♥T. Because (1) it might hit partner's suit.
We doubled because it looked like a takeout double of 1C. Partner did help us by passing. Partner doesn't have hearts, because he helped us by passing. whatever I lead will not be a heart. If I had not doubled, then the heart ten would look pretty good.
This post has been edited by aguahombre: 2011-November-13, 19:26
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Posted 2011-November-13, 20:55
A bit off-topic: "Pick a card, any card" is my line.
♦2 (4th best) or ♦6 (3rd & 5th).
♦2 (4th best) or ♦6 (3rd & 5th).
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#11
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Posted 2011-November-13, 21:09
aguahombre, on 2011-November-13, 19:23, said:
We doubled because it looked like a takeout double of 1C. Partner did help us by passing. Partner doesn't have hearts, because he helped us by passing. whatever I lead will not be a heart. If I had not doubled, then the heart ten would look pretty good.
My thoughts exactly. ♦2 for me.
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#12
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Posted 2011-November-13, 21:42
Heart for sure, I would lead the Queen because it seems more straightforward somehow, but I can see the Ten working too.
Opener will often have a singleton heart on this auction.
I would have led the ♠A against the original auction (1♠ response).
Opener will often have a singleton heart on this auction.
I would have led the ♠A against the original auction (1♠ response).
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
#13
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Posted 2011-November-13, 23:34
The problem with small ♦ lead is, it is not really helping pd to switch to ♠ suit when it is right thing to do. He is likely to play it back.
I would lead ♥ T but if i was convinced to lead a ♦, i would give a thought about Ace lead.
I would lead ♥ T but if i was convinced to lead a ♦, i would give a thought about Ace lead.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#14
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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:06
I see two possible leads. Either we lead the diamond ace (and continue with a high one if partner encourages, else try to find partner with the spade king or heart ace) or lead a heart. I think a small diamond is far too commital.
I think it is close between the heart queen and the diamond ace.
I think it is close between the heart queen and the diamond ace.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
#15
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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:14
What heart layout are the heart-leaders hoping for?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#16
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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:34
♦A for me, I guess someone has said so already, but ♦A is less likelly to give away the contract than ♠A because we can run spades even if declarer has ♠K, but running diamodns requires a lot more.
#17
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Posted 2011-November-14, 06:49
gnasher, on 2011-November-14, 06:14, said:
What heart layout are the heart-leaders hoping for?
I am a heart leader. I am hoping for a layout where declarer does not have 9 unless i lead an ace, and I can set up some tricks in hearts.
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#18
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Posted 2011-November-14, 07:14
Partner with an entry in hearts and the spade jack would also be good!
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.
- hrothgar
- hrothgar
#19
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Posted 2011-November-14, 09:51
JLOGIC, on 2011-November-14, 06:49, said:
I am a heart leader. I am hoping for a layout where declarer does not have 9 unless i lead an ace, and I can set up some tricks in hearts.
Yes, I gathered that, but I was hoping for a slightly more specific reply.
Given the way the auction started, do you think it possible that partner has ♥A9xx or ♥K9xx, or ♥Jxxx plus an entry? Or are you hoping to get one heart trick and then switch?
Regardless, if we're going to lead hearts I think it's clear to lead the queen. That gives us more chance of getting partner in, may mislead declarer about the layout, and may smother declarer's jack.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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Posted 2011-November-14, 11:47
I made my choice of the ♥Q before reading the comments.
It really comes down to the elimination of other options, plus the possibility of a home run.
Leading either a spade or a diamond rates to give him an immediate trick, and my club holding suggests that he will score 6 or 7 clubs, plus the trick we give him on the opening lead (and a low diamond may give him two tricks early). That puts him too far ahead, in my view.
The heart almost can't give him a trick he hasn't got coming...and, if it does, we probably couldn't beat the contract anyway.
In the meantime, as little as A9xx in partner gives us an immediate beat (on a spade switch), if declarer has the stiff J. K9xx gives us a delayed beat. And the stiff J is the holding we are hoping for, and why the Queen seems the right choice, compared to the x or the 10.
And on many other hands, the heart succeeds by not being an immediate (or slow) loser. On such hands, the choice of the Q or the 10 probably matters not, but, generally speaking, the 10 loses more often than does the Q.
Partner's silence really doesn't tell us to stay away from hearts....we don't need anything like what he'd have to justify his bidding 2♥ over 1♥ or doubling then or later.
It really comes down to the elimination of other options, plus the possibility of a home run.
Leading either a spade or a diamond rates to give him an immediate trick, and my club holding suggests that he will score 6 or 7 clubs, plus the trick we give him on the opening lead (and a low diamond may give him two tricks early). That puts him too far ahead, in my view.
The heart almost can't give him a trick he hasn't got coming...and, if it does, we probably couldn't beat the contract anyway.
In the meantime, as little as A9xx in partner gives us an immediate beat (on a spade switch), if declarer has the stiff J. K9xx gives us a delayed beat. And the stiff J is the holding we are hoping for, and why the Queen seems the right choice, compared to the x or the 10.
And on many other hands, the heart succeeds by not being an immediate (or slow) loser. On such hands, the choice of the Q or the 10 probably matters not, but, generally speaking, the 10 loses more often than does the Q.
Partner's silence really doesn't tell us to stay away from hearts....we don't need anything like what he'd have to justify his bidding 2♥ over 1♥ or doubling then or later.
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