[kereru67]

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I have my own opinion but I'll see what you guys think first.

[DavidKok]

Could I get an explanation of the auction?

[kereru67]

DavidKok, on 2024-November-22, 04:18, said:

Could I get an explanation of the auction?

Fairly standard, 2♣ game force, 2♥ is a biddable suit, 4nt blackwood, 5♣ no aces, 6♦ 1 king.

[P_Marlowe]

kereru67, on 2024-November-22, 04:57, said:

Fairly standard, 2♣ game force, 2♥ is a biddable suit, 4nt blackwood, 5♣ no aces, 6♦ 1 king.

So in other Words Dummy should show up with KTxxx in hearts.

I would go with a spade.

[TMorris]

10 ♦ for me, trying not to give away a trick

[mikeh]

Lol at this ‘standard’ auction…to NA eyes it’s very non-standard. It’s common in NA for a suit response to promise 2/3 top honours, or AKQ, 5+ length, and most play keycard over that and most play specific kings.

Ok, now that we know what the auction means….we can place north with Kxxxx in hearts and probably nothing meaningful extra.

Either declarer has a truly huge hand or he thinks he has a long running minor…AKQJxx(x). If the latter, then if it’s clubs, he’s probably right and if it’s diamonds we’ll need a lucky layout. Say 9xxxx for partner. But on those layouts, I’m struggling to find a losing lead, other than hearts.

What about AKJ Ax AKQJ9 AKQ? No defence…I’m squeezed in the majors on any lead. AKJ Ax AKQJ2 AKQ? If dummy has xxxx Kxxxx x xxx, a spade lead concedes the 12th trick and sets up the squeeze for the 13th.

I’ve gone back and forth on this, but trying to stay within the bounds of what would be permissible in a long team match, where taking five minutes on this decision would be acceptable. I’ve concluded that we need to be as passive as possible. I thought that meant diamonds. But then I flashed on A Ax AKJxxxxx AK….with partner holding Qxx. To me, it’s fractionally less likely that a club can cost….cost a trick? Maybe. Cost the contract by setting up a club suit that needs a finesse? Less likely.

So a club, without much confidence. Second choice…diamond. I’d rank this as club 90 diamond 80 spade 10 heart 0

[smerriman]

mikeh, on 2024-November-22, 13:04, said:

I’d rank this as club 90 diamond 80 spade 10 heart 0

I would have picked a club too, just in case it was a bad diamond break that was the means to beating the contract.

But just to play devil's advocate.. as ridiculous as it sounds, assuming declarer doesn't have 3 hearts for not raising, what hand could declarer have where a low heart lead costs the contract? I'm struggling to think of one, since it only costs a trick if dummy has an outside entry which likely dooms us anyway (or has no effect if declarer needs diamonds), though probably missing something obvious.

[mikeh]

smerriman, on 2024-November-22, 13:29, said:

I would have picked a club too, just in case it was a bad diamond break that was the means to beating the contract.

But just to play devil's advocate.. as ridiculous as it sounds, assuming declarer doesn't have 3 hearts for not raising, what hand could declarer have where a low heart lead costs the contract? I'm struggling to think of one, since it only costs a trick if dummy has an outside entry which likely dooms us anyway (or has no effect if declarer needs diamonds), though probably missing something obvious.

Depends on what I think/know about the opps. As a rule I tend to assume that players I don’t know aren’t very good (ok, so I’m arrogant, lol). But in my experience I usually have a rough idea of their ability by the time we’ve played two boards.

Even with my rule, I’m not assuming that declarer would conceal heart support, if only because surely he could set hearts as trump and find out about the queen? He’d have to be an idiot or novice not to do so, and (additionally) few novices would bid a grand on such an auction unless they had 14 tricks, lol.

Plus, if he needs the heart suit, how can it gain to lead it? Maybe it only blows one trick right away but even then it could be (a) the 13 th trick……xx K109xx xx xxxx opposite AK Axx AKQJ9 AKQ

Or it could set up a squeeze…..Jxx K109xx xx xxx opposite AK Axx AKQJ2 AKQ. On a minor lead, the count is wrong for a major suit squeeze. I can afford to pitch 3 spades and a heart on the run of the minors, but if I lead a low heart, now he has 12 winners and I’m crushed.

[smerriman]

mikeh, on 2024-November-22, 14:20, said:

Plus, if he needs the heart suit, how can it gain to lead it? Maybe it only blows one trick right away but even then it could be (a) the 13 th trick……xx K109xx xx xxxx opposite AK Axx AKQJ9 AKQ

Or it could set up a squeeze…..Jxx K109xx xx xxx opposite AK Axx AKQJ2 AKQ. On a minor lead, the count is wrong for a major suit squeeze. I can afford to pitch 3 spades and a heart on the run of the minors, but if I lead a low heart, now he has 12 winners and I’m crushed.

Right, but in both of those examples opener has 3 hearts, which I agree he'd have to be bonkers to conceal. I just looking for an example of a hand where declarer wasn't crazy, but a low heart lead is bad (for you to give it a score of 0). In all of your original guesses as to his hand, a low heart lead works fine. Not that I would have chosen it.

[kereru67]

OK for a bit more context, N/S are above average club players. Their bidding is not necessarily 100% correct. However club players notoriously don't bid slams when they're there.

Based on this I have to place S with all 4 aces and 3 kings, N with the 4th king.

The number one priority is to give nothing away, so the lead to avoid at all costs is ♠. You're not trying to set up a long suit, you're just trying to eventually take a defensive trick after declarer has run their likely long minor. ♠ lead will cost unless partner happens to have the J♠, and odds are against.

The minors are a 50/50 proposition. Most likely declarer has a run in one of them, but partner might have a hold in the other. If you happen to lead the suit where declarer has a run that will be ok, but if you guess wrong you might wreck partner's honor holding.

I think ♥ is the best lead. Low ♥ will only work if partner has 10♥, a 1 in 3 chance. That leaves a high heart lead. It will work if (a) partner has the 10♥ (b) declarer has the K♥ © Declarer misguesses a finesse. You already know declarer has the Ace. Lead J♥ instead of the Q♥ to encourage a wrong finesse.