lamford, on 2024-January-07, 04:22, said:
Not everyone plays Smith. In the Camrose yesterday, the Welsh players defending this hand did not and a nasty guess was the result. You lead the seven of hearts, fourth, to the queen and king. Declarer leads the two of clubs to the king and four and the queen of clubs to partner's ten and declarer's seven. Your go. Partner's carding in clubs will be suit preference, but you don't know who has the nine. Just as you don't know who has the ten of hearts.
Michael Smith, who failed to defend his World Darts Crown this year was mistakenly called "Smithy" by a commentator. I protested: "His nickname is Bully Boy. Why did they call him Smithy?" My wife responded. "Maybe he makes his own darts ..."
This is a very tricky hand.
Assume partner has one side king. We can’t beat it by switching to that suit….declarer pops the ace and has 9 tricks…the AK of the ‘other suit’ plus the ace he popped, one heart and five clubs.
Obviously declarer makes at least two overtricks if I switch and he has both side kings.
What if he has neither? Say Jxx K10xx QJxx xx? If I give him a second heart, he makes but on either switch he’s down. But I could lead the heart jack, and any good player sitting east will unblock the 10 from 10x…if he doesn’t, I switch, hoping he has both kings.
What about Jx K10xxx QJxx xx or similar? Now cashing the heart Jack ends the defence. Either I cash the ace, setting up the 10, or I abandon the suit and declarer can establish an extra trick in one or both pointed suits!
I think the slight percentages are for declarer to hold a side king….he could have both and still bid 1N….Kx Kxxx Kxxx xxx as an example.
So my guess is the heart Jack.
I’ve only scratched the surface of the issues I see here…but those issues (more accurately, my analysis of them) don’t help much with this decision.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari