Posted 2019-January-11, 15:43
Amen, Badger!
Defense is much harder to do well than declaring or bidding. All are important, but if contracts tend to fall evenly among all hands, you're going to be defending twice as much as you'll be declaring (as partner should be declaring about half your contracts). Because of the increased way you can personally affect the play, good defending players are usually winning players.
Counting is vital. But analyzing both how partner and declarer are playing is also critical. Part of that is both looking at what they are doing/did and what they haven't done.
Start with the opening lead. ♠ 8 is almost assuredly a doubleton. Why, because if it isn't, the Rule of 11 tells you that from a 4th best lead 3 higher cards are out. From the spot, dummy's holding and your holding, the one remaining higher card in declarer's hand must be an honor which meant partner would have led low from a holding with 3 honors. If the lead is a doubleton, it's likely that partner also holds a high trump card because doubleton leads usually are only good when declarer can't draw one's trump to prevent a ruff. Looking at dummy, that high trump is the A.
So at the opening lead, you are pretty certain opener holds ♠ AKQJ along with 5 ♥. That tells you that declarer also has at least 8 tricks when the ♥ A is driven out. That's one of the important counts to keep. It's also important to count the tricks your side has and focus on how to get enough tricks to beat the contract.
When partner wins the ♥ A, he switches to a passive defense and returns a trump. What didn't partner do? Partner didn't lead from a touching honor combination in a minor such as ♦ AK, ♣ AK, ♣ KQ, or ♣ QJ. The trump return also tends to make you think partner has honors in both minors, is reluctant to lead away from them, and give something to declarer.
As declarer runs his major suit tricks, partner discards the ♣ 6 first. Could it be a signal of holding an honor? From your holding and dummy, you see that the ♣ 3 hasn't been played yet. So it remains a possibility that the ♣ 6 shows an honor. On the next lead, partner discards the ♦ 9 definitely showing a ♦ honor. But without a ♣ honor, wouldn't it be likely that partner would flash a high ♦ first rather than play ♣ 6. Declarer is also discarding ♣ from dummy.
So, as you get to the critical discard, it looks like you have to protect against declarer setting up the ♦ J in dummy.
A good book to help develop these card reading skills is Mike Lawrence's How to Read Your Opponent's Cards. It do so from declarer's perspective and is a little dated in that it still uses 16-18 NT. But the thinking process it start to develop is invaluable on defense as well.
Also, the two books on defense by Eddie Kantar should be part of every bridge player education. They are Modern Bridge Defense and Advanced Bridge Defense. Modern covers all the basic defending plays in detail so that you fully understand how and when to make them. Advanced covers a lot of the thinking processes that accompany good defense such as starting to develop the distribution of the hand from the bidding, counting tricks, etc. It's well worthwhile for every player below a bona fide (not BBO) expert to read and work through them.