Posted 2016-November-18, 18:50
I'm not looking at this as carefully as I would (friday evenings being what they are), but:
With the right explanation I assume the director thought the auction would go 2NT-p-3♣-X;p-3♥-AP. I can't really see a 3♥ call from South directly over a preemptive 2NT opener.
East's comment is pure resulting, unless the real agreement was 5-5 in the minors or better, 2-6. They *always* would bid one more, when it turns out it's not going to get chopped off for 800-into-partscore, especially when they know partner doesn't know what they have. However!
West, who is not entitled to the correct explanation, will never let N-S play undoubled unless the auction can wake him up (and remember, the auction won't go 2NT-p-3♣-p; p). With 30 high, he is doing *something*. I would be awarding 3♥X= if it made, so I can't give any percentage of 3♥ undoubled unless we can envision an auction where N-S get to 3♥ and East's legitimate auction is impossible with the balanced 20 count.
3♥X off however many is possible, but there are other alternatives. We can take East at his word that he would bid one more, even if partner hit it (I would pretty much guarantee that at the table East would, using the UI to do so) leading to 5♣ unless the pollees all believe that the pull would wake them up. Or West might bid 3NT instead of doubling, thinking that 500 is too chancy; that will lead to 4♣ by East and probably a wakeup.
I also don't think we have to assume that East will get the diamonds right on the correct auction just because West did in the one at the table. I might get overruled on that.
So I think I'm awarding some collection of 5♣E-2. 4♣E-1 (or 5♣E-1, why not?) and 3♥XS-1 (I can't really see not making 8 tricks in hearts. 7 in spades, but I don't think I can get them to spades).
I think they'll actually prefer the ruling your director gave :-).
When I go to sea, don't fear for me, Fear For The Storm -- Birdie and the Swansong (tSCoSI)