[barmar]

 Chas_P, on 2019-March-11, 20:01, said:

The "country as a whole" is made up of INDIVIDUALS. All of us...one by one...as INDIVIDUALS are a part of the "country as a whole". Taxes are not paid by the "country as a whole". They are paid by INDIVIDUALS.

So what?

You don't get a refund on the portion of your city taxes that funds the Fire Department just because your house never caught fire. We're part of a society, and if society has a responsibility for something, we pay for it together. That's the "social contract".

[Winstonm]

Let's see, Individual-1 populism = $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy and an $845 billion cut to health care for the average person. Oh, I get it - we're all supposed to become Christian Scientists: problem solved!

[Winstonm]

 y66, on 2019-March-12, 08:40, said:

From David Leonhardt at NYT:


Principles before implementation? Good idea.

Edit: Sperling's essay includes these lines


and concludes thusly:

With this line included, Sperling just lost the Tea Party and 71% of Republicans.

Quote

help all of us be open to new evidence

[cherdano]

 kenberg, on 2019-March-12, 06:14, said:

Dismissing views as cognitive bias seems to be all the rage these days. Someone sees things differently? Well, obviously they are suffering from cognitive bias. People who agree with me are rational, those who disagree have cognitive bias.

No, that's not my point. The point is that everyone has cognitive biases. But especially, there seems to be nothing humans seem better at than motivated reasoning. Accusing someone of motivated reasoning is about as strong of an accusation as accusing them of breathing air. Here is a good example of a relevant study:

https://papers.ssrn....ract_id=2182588

Personally, I have found the world easier to explain once I *started* with the assumption that most reasoning is motivated reasoning - yes, even, gasp, when coming in the most highly respected documents of reasoning the world has seen, i.e. US supreme court opinions.

[y66]

 Winstonm, on 2019-March-12, 10:27, said:

With this line included, Sperling just lost the Tea Party and 71% of Republicans.

Quote

help all of us be open to new evidence

Ha! With the rest of that line he also lost 95% of water coolers:

Quote

It becomes too easy for too many of us to dig in on specific policies and strategies as if they were ends in themselves. Having a clear view of what our end goal for human well-being is—and keeping it front and center—can help all of us be open to new evidence and committed to continually evaluating what works best to achieve economic dignity for all.

I can count on one hand the number of meetings and conversations I've seen where people agree on problems and goals before they start digging in to solutions. Software engineers are as bad as politicians, maybe worse. When the era of AIism arrives, we will probably pine for the era of Trumpism.

[Chas_P]

 barmar, on 2019-March-12, 09:50, said:

So what?

You don't get a refund on the portion of your city taxes that funds the Fire Department just because your house never caught fire. We're part of a society, and if society has a responsibility for something, we pay for it together. That's the "social contract".

I understand all that, and I have no problem paying taxes. Over the years there have been times when I was flat broke and paid very little and other times when I made a bunch of money and paid a whole lot. Of the two positions, #2 is my fave. But here's the point: Government has no money of its own. Government cannot give you something that it did not take, by force, from someone else. I think about that every month when I get my Social Security check. And I thank you and Richard for your support.

[Winstonm]

The storm flags are flying!

Quote

Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

[kenberg]

 cherdano, on 2019-March-12, 11:08, said:

No, that's not my point. The point is that everyone has cognitive biases. But especially, there seems to be nothing humans seem better at than motivated reasoning. Accusing someone of motivated reasoning is about as strong of an accusation as accusing them of breathing air. Here is a good example of a relevant study:

https://papers.ssrn....ract_id=2182588

Personally, I have found the world easier to explain once I *started* with the assumption that most reasoning is motivated reasoning - yes, even, gasp, when coming in the most highly respected documents of reasoning the world has seen, i.e. US supreme court opinions.

Probably this discussion has about run its course but here is the problem with cognitive bias as an explanation. It's generally used against the other guy. For example, perhaps your use of cognitive bias is a demonstration of cognitive bias. You say that you find it easier to explain the world in those terms. So this gives you a motivation to explain the world in those terms. Desiring an explanation to be correct is where, I think, cognitive bias is said to come from. So why not apply it? I presume you would say that this is not an example of cognitive bias, I might, or might not, agree, but my point is it can be used by anyone anytime for anything. It's a diversion.

I do try to see how my view of the world comes about. Back in high school a friend said "I sometimes believe things because I can prove them, but I also sometimes can prove things because I believe them". A good formulation of cognitive bias, c.1955. I believe most people see me as pretty straightforward, they rarely have to wonder just what it is that I meant by what I said. But we all have blind spots. When I misplay a bridge hand, I usually like to sit down and see for myself where I should have, on the evidence, taken a different line. I have little interest in proving myself right, I am interested ni seeing what I missed. I like to work it through.

Anyway, I am running out of anything useful to say here. I don't favor reparations, I have said a bit about why, that's pretty much it.
I have to add in another true story from my youth. Four of us would get together and play hearts. After one session this guy said "I have the worst luck. You guys know I am smarter than you but I never win". Cognitive bias has been around for a while.

[cherdano]

 kenberg, on 2019-March-12, 21:16, said:

Probably this discussion has about run its course but here is the problem with cognitive bias as an explanation. It's generally used against the other guy. For example, perhaps your use of cognitive bias is a demonstration of cognitive bias. You say that you find it easier to explain the world in those terms. So this gives you a motivation to explain the world in those terms. Desiring an explanation to be correct is where, I think, cognitive bias is said to come from. So why not apply it?

But! Where ever I look, I see confirmation bias!

[johnu]

In a case of 0 degrees of separation, Dennison's shutdown of the government endangered anybody who flew on those Boeing 737 Max planes. Rachel Maddow reported that Boeing and the FAA were negotiating what changes to the software controlling those planes were necessary, and that talks were suspended for 35 days while the Federal government was shut down.

Rachel Maddow Draws Devastating Line From Trump’s Shutdown To The Ethiopian Airlines Crash

[barmar]

Am I the only one surprised that Trump is not associated with the college admissions bribery scheme? Or is it just a matter of time before it comes to light (like with Robert Kraft)?

[y66]

 johnu, on 2019-March-13, 01:57, said:

In a case of 0 degrees of separation, Dennison's shutdown of the government endangered anybody who flew on those Boeing 737 Max planes. Rachel Maddow reported that Boeing and the FAA were negotiating what changes to the software controlling those planes were necessary, and that talks were suspended for 35 days while the Federal government was shut down.

Rachel Maddow Draws Devastating Line From Trump’s Shutdown To The Ethiopian Airlines Crash

I don't think you can pin that one on Trump. As this Feb 3 NYT story explains, Boeing and the FAA's decision to keep pilots in the dark about a change to the flight control system to prevent stalling under certain conditions pre-dates the shutdown and Trump (the FAA certified the 737 MAX on March 8, 2017):

Quote

The causes of the [October Lion Air crash], which killed 189 people, are still under investigation. Indonesian authorities are studying the cockpit voice recorder for insights into how the pilots handled the emergency, and are examining Lion Air’s long history of maintenance problems.

But the tragedy has become a focus of intense interest and debate in aviation circles because of another factor: the determination by Boeing and the F.A.A. that pilots did not need to be informed about a change introduced to the 737’s flight control system for the Max, some software coding intended to automatically offset the risk that the size and location of the new engines could lead the aircraft to stall under certain conditions.

That judgment by Boeing and its regulator was at least in part a result of the company’s drive to minimize the costs of pilot retraining. And it appears to have left the Lion Air crew without a full understanding of how to address a malfunction that seems to have contributed to the crash: faulty data erroneously indicating that the plane was flying at a dangerous angle, leading the flight control system to repeatedly push the plane’s nose down.

Understanding how the pilots could have been left largely uninformed leads back to choices made by Boeing as it developed the 737 Max more than seven years ago, according to statements from Boeing and interviews with engineers, former Boeing employees, pilots, regulators and congressional aides.

Those decisions ultimately prompted the company, regulators and airlines to conclude that training or briefing pilots on the change to the flight control system was unnecessary for carrying out well-established emergency procedures.

The story of the change to that system, and how it came to play a central role in the Lion Air crash, shows how safety on modern jetliners is shaped by a complex combination of factors, including fierce industry competition, technological advances and pilot training. It illustrates how, in the rare instances when things go awry, the interplay of those factors can create unintended and potentially fatal consequences.

The crash has raised questions about whether Boeing played down or overlooked, largely for cost and competitive reasons, the potential dangers of keeping pilots uninformed about changes to a critical element of the plane’s software.

And it has put a new focus on whether the F.A.A. has been aggressive enough in monitoring Boeing in an era when technology has made airliners both remarkably reliable and increasingly complicated. European regulators initially disagreed with the F.A.A.’s judgment about the need for additional training but ultimately went along, a pilot familiar with the certification process said, while regulators in Brazil broke with the F.A.A. and required that pilots be made familiar with the change.

To me, it looks like Boeing and the FAA, whose prime directive is safety, put marketing considerations before safety. But yeah, the image of going nose first into the ground to prevent stalling is classic Trump.

[kenberg]

 barmar, on 2019-March-13, 08:34, said:

Am I the only one surprised that Trump is not associated with the college admissions bribery scheme? Or is it just a matter of time before it comes to light (like with Robert Kraft)?

I didn't give any real thought to a DT connection. But it's one of those things that just leaves me stunned. It's hard to know where to begin, but this is what the parents want to teach their kids?

From WaPo story

Quote

Huffman is accused of paying $15,000 — disguised as a charitable donation — to the Key Worldwide Foundation so her oldest daughter could participate in the scam. A confidential informant told investigators that he advised Huffman that he could arrange for a third party to correct her daughter's answers on the SAT after she took it. She ended up scoring a 1420 — 400 points higher than she had gotten on a PSAT taken a year earlier, according to court documents.

Huffman also contemplated running a similar scam to help her younger daughter but ultimately did not pursue it, the complaint alleges.

It is my great hope that this younger daughter told her mother "Hey mom, let's not". Naive maybe, but I can hope.

Not only bribery charges, but trouble with the IRS. Their kids are in a bad spotlight. And all for what? The idiocy of this just overwhelms me.


I hope that while the elite colleges are checking out how the kids got admitted they would also look at how the kids passed courses once they got admitted. I did not get the idea that these young people had either the high school training or the willingness to work that would get them through an honest course at a school that had standards. So there is quite a bit to explain, but we can guess at how they got through their courses, and learning the material probably wasn't the route of choice. Well, part of the scam involved athletics. That could explain a bit.

[y66]

From How Much Immigration Is Too Much? by David Frum at The Atlantic:

Quote

If liberals won’t enforce borders, fascists will. We need to make hard decisions now about what will truly benefit current and future Americans.

Quote

Americans are entitled to consider carefully whom they will number among themselves. They would be irresponsible not to consider this carefully—because all of these expensive commitments must be built on a deep agreement that all who live inside the borders of the United States count as “ourselves.” The years of slow immigration, 1915 to 1975, were also years in which the United States became a more cohesive nation: the years of the civil-rights revolution, the building of a mass middle class, the construction of a national social-insurance system, the projection of U.S. power in two world wars. As immigration has accelerated, the country seems to have splintered apart.

Many Americans feel that the country is falling short of its promises of equal opportunity and equal respect. Levels of immigration that are too high only enhance the difficulty of living up to those promises. Reducing immigration, and selecting immigrants more carefully, will enable the country to more quickly and successfully absorb the people who come here, and to ensure equality of opportunity to both the newly arrived and the long-settled—to restore to Americans the feeling of belonging to one united nation, responsible for the care and flourishing of all its people.

Frum is the author of Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic. In 2001 and 2002, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

[Winstonm]

 y66, on 2019-March-13, 09:21, said:

I don't think you can pin that one on Trump. As this Feb 3 NYT story explains, Boeing and the FAA's decision to keep pilots in the dark about a change to the flight control system to prevent stalling under certain conditions pre-dates the shutdown and Trump (the FAA certified the 737 MAX on March 8, 2017):


To me, it looks like Boeing and the FAA, whose prime directive is safety, put marketing considerations before safety. But yeah, the image of going nose first into the ground to prevent stalling is classic Trump.

In true isolationist tradition, the U.S. is now. after Canada banned it, the only country allowing this plane to fly. Perhaps Wilbur Ross is shorting the flight insurance industry?

[hrothgar]

 y66, on 2019-March-13, 10:16, said:

Frum is the author of Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic. In 2001 and 2002, he was a speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

And a recent immigrant to America from Canada

[kenberg]

Regarding Boeing, FAA etc. This is completely crazy, and something has to be done. That much is obvious. On the pBS Newshour last night they had a guy explaining that the FAA lacks the resources and the expertise to go up against Boeing, they just can't handle the job. Maybe so. Of course everyone else can look at the obvious and say that Boeing changed the design, after which two planes went down, pretty much in the same way, and in a manner that fits in with potential problems in the design and/or software. So nobody is putting their own kid on the plane, and so the FAA needs to shut it down until there is a better understanding.
As to Trump, if he is serious about using presidential powers to intervene in a national emergency, this would seem to qualify. My idea of an emergency is an unexpected and severe problem that has to be dealt with quickly and for which the usual administrative approach is too slow.. Redesigned planes falling out of the sky would be an example.

This has nothing to do with liking Trump or disliking Trump. The FAA is looking awful. Maybe the PBS guy was right and they simply are not up for the job. This needs to be fixed in the long term. The immediate problem has to be dealt with more quickly.

[Winstonm]

Quote

House Resolution 1. The so-called "For the People Act." It includes proposals such as public financing of campaigns, ending Citizens United, requiring presidential candidates to disclose tax returns, automatic voter registration, making Election Day a federal holiday and ending partisan gerrymandering.

When asked why this legislation was not coming for a vote to the floor of the senate, Mitch McConnell said, "Because I'm the guy who decides what we vote on."

To that I say: not for much longer. Kick them out! Kick them out! Kick them out!

[Winstonm]

This just in. Paul Manafort, campaign manager for Individual-1, has been sentenced to 7 1/2 years in prison. At the same time, the state of New York has also indicted him on numerous state charges - which is indeed interesting, as it gives the appearance that the office of the special counsel and the New York state AG are working in unison to quash any pardon attempts (the president cannot pardon state crimes).

Edit: NYT

Quote

Paul J. Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign chairman, has been charged in New York with mortgage fraud and more than a dozen other state felonies, the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance, Jr., said Wednesday, an effort to ensure he will still face prison time if Mr. Trump pardons him for his federal crimes.

[johnu]

 y66, on 2019-March-13, 09:21, said:

I don't think you can pin that one on Trump. As this Feb 3 NYT story explains, Boeing and the FAA's decision to keep pilots in the dark about a change to the flight control system to prevent stalling under certain conditions pre-dates the shutdown and Trump (the FAA certified the 737 MAX on March 8, 2017):


To me, it looks like Boeing and the FAA, whose prime directive is safety, put marketing considerations before safety. But yeah, the image of going nose first into the ground to prevent stalling is classic Trump.

Dennison took over government on January 20, 2017 and among the first things he did was to start deregulating government agencies so there wouldn't be so much oversight on private industry.

For what is is worth, Patrick Shanahan is the acting Secretary of Defense and before that was the Deputy Secretary of Defense after a long career at Boeing, and current Boeing CEO Muilenburg personally called Dennison and vouched for the safety of the 737 Max planes.

This is something that a Congressional oversight committee needs to investigate since it is obvious to all that the White House will do nothing.

BOEING CEO DENNIS MUILENBURG CALLED DONALD TRUMP TO KEEP THE 737 MAX 8 PLANES FLYING: REPORT