[WesleyC]

If you're going face, then I'd rather just go 100% face to get him 4. Then if he misses on his next draw (and doesn't roll a taunt totem) you win straight up. Killing only the totem feels worse, because it isn't very relevant and gives the opponent at least 2 more turns.

If the rest of your deck isn't as awful as Fluffy makes out then I also don't mind trading and holding the Seal of Light for next turn. Or even full face trading and going into next turn with 2/2 1/1 1/1 and 3 HP. Hearthstone Deck Tracker is a great app for situations like this, especially in arena where it's harder to remember every card in your deck.

[Cyberyeti]

 WesleyC, on 2015-August-09, 07:07, said:

If you're going face, then I'd rather just go 100% face to get him 4. Then if he misses on his next draw (and doesn't roll a taunt totem) you win straight up. Killing only the totem feels worse, because it isn't very relevant and gives the opponent at least 2 more turns.

If the rest of your deck isn't as awful as Fluffy makes out then I also don't mind trading and holding the Seal of Light for next turn. Or even full face trading and going into next turn with 2/2 1/1 1/1 and 3 HP. Hearthstone Deck Tracker is a great app for situations like this, especially in arena where it's harder to remember every card in your deck.

As I said you'd feel sick if he drew either flametongue totem (give both his creatures +2 attack and kill you) or the "deal 1 and freeze/silence" (which will take out your 4/2 with the spell power), give neighbouring minions +1/+1 and taunt would also be much worse if you left the totem alive. Unfortunately most of the totems he can summon are bad for you, it really depends if you have any useful spells left (deal 3 damage and draw a card would be cool), I normally draw divine favor in these circumstances.

[WesleyC]

 Cyberyeti, on 2015-August-09, 14:43, said:

As I said you'd feel sick if he drew either flametongue totem (give both his creatures +2 attack and kill you) or the "deal 1 and freeze/silence" (which will take out your 4/2 with the spell power), give neighbouring minions +1/+1 and taunt would also be much worse if you left the totem alive. Unfortunately most of the totems he can summon are bad for you, it really depends if you have any useful spells left (deal 3 damage and draw a card would be cool), I normally draw divine favor in these circumstances.

Obviously flametongue totem is a straight up loss for not clearing the totems when you would've been well placed if you had killed it.

Earth shock and Frost shock aren't worth playing around firstly because they're mediocre cards so the chance of finding them in a 12-0 shaman deck is pretty low, and secondly because you're still pretty well placed in this scenario. Defender of Argus is always a disaster if you don't trade the 6/7 because your opponent can make a totem and buff both, but again it's a pretty obscure card to play around in arena.

On the other hand I came up with 7 frequently drafted common cards that either directly (or indirectly) lead to a loss.

Fire Elemental
Rockbiter Weapon
Lightning Bolt
Senjin Shieldmasta
Crackle
Fen Creeper
Wolfrider

Playing around Flametongue Totem feels like the bridge equivalent of playing to survive the 4-1 trump break and then going down when trumps were 3-2 all along.

[Antrax]

If you go face with everything, you give him one turn to draw lightning storm or 3 damage (rockbiter, lightning bolt, crackle, lava shock w/ spell damage, flametongue totem, fire elemental), since taunt totem won't save him (he kills the 4/2 but you still have 5 damage). A normal taunt (sunfury, defender of argus, senjin or whatever) will be enough.
If you kill the ogre he drops to 10, you have 2 damage on the board. Too many permutations to consider.
I think I would go face, unless my deck had a ton of lategame that I can expect to topdeck better than him.

[edit]
Whoops didn't see the sixth page. Time to check if I missed something obvious.

[Fluffy]

I went face, but none of you guessed what came next: bloodlust. A totally dead card had I cleared his board instead :/

[Cyberyeti]

 Fluffy, on 2015-August-10, 02:58, said:

I went face, but none of you guessed what came next: bloodlust. A totally dead card had I cleared his board instead :/

I saw that coming but didn't think you were well placed if he drew that whatever you did given what you said about what was left in the relevant decks, he'd have enough time to draw 2 medium sized or bigger critters plus creating totems and use the bloodlust.

I disagree with Wesley that earth shock is a card you wouldn't take in a 12/0 shaman deck or defender of argus and remember thay may well not be 12/0, you will be matched against the best available opp, they could be 10/2 if that's the best available, if you're playing out of primetime their record might not even be that good. Also sometimes with 29 good cards a less than prime card is alongside an angry chicken and something else utterly useless.

[ahydra]

I think I agree with the others that going full-on face was correct there. It costs too much of your board to kill the 6/7 and he just got a lucky topdeck (given this is arena he probably had several ordinary minions left in his deck). Such is the nature of topdeck wars unfortunately.

Also, earth shock is a mediocre card?! No way. (I don't play arena so maybe I'm wrong, but I thought silence was very powerful in both arena and constructed)

ahydra

[Antrax]

Fluffy, the alternative was clearing, his bloodlust is dead. If your draw was dead or just not high-pressure, he gets 3-4 turns to draw something to swing the game back in his favor. It feels yucky but the alternative was giving him more time to draw into better cards. So, I think you took the +EV action. In general, opponents will have more minions than spells, so it's more likely he'll draw another minion than the last 3 damage there.

[WesleyC]

 ahydra, on 2015-August-10, 05:26, said:

Also, earth shock is a mediocre card?! No way. (I don't play arena so maybe I'm wrong, but I thought silence was very powerful in both arena and constructed)

Earthshock is more popular in constructed than in arena because it offers a cheap answer to aggro decks and hard counters twilight drake.

In arena "mediocre" feels pretty accurate, ADWCTA's tierlist gives it a base rating of 52. Picking one up isn't a disaster, but there is usually a better card offered that you would rather draft. If you assume that Earthshock is exactly halfway between the best & worst commons and that players draft purely based on 'the best card' then you would only expect Earth Shock to be drafted once for every four times it is offered.

On the other hand, a cards like Fire Elemental or Consecration which is clearly the strongest common card for that class, will almost always be drafted so you'd expect to run into it roughly four times more often.

[Cyberyeti]

OK, time to give up for today, RNG is taking the piss.

Just played 12 games winning 4. My deck has 5 1 drops, 7 2 drops and 6 weapons.

One game I got all 1 and 2 drops as my starting hand, no issue there.

In all the others, AFTER mulligan I never had a 1 drop and had at most 1 2 drop (in several I had no 2 drop) and I never kept more than 1 higher cost card.

In one game I drew 16 cards with no weapon.

[StevenG]

I'm not convinced the deck is drawn randomly. I've noticed that my "doubletons" (is there a proper term for them?) seem to cluster far more than should happen by chance. In particular, playing mage, Flamestrikes nearly nearly always seem to be three or four cards apart at most. On average it should be 10.33 cards apart.

I seem to be especially unlucky against strong decks (last ten cards, two Flamestrikes, two Ice Barriers left, along with other health restorers and a Polymorph), and especially lucky against obvious complete noobs. It's probably paranoia, but I do wonder if the deal is sometimes fixed in favour of players who spend real money to make purchase of high value cards seem more essential for a player to do well.

[rogerclee]

I used to play a lot, now it comes and goes for me, but I somewhat regret not taking HS more seriously during the beginnings of the game. I think it's a great game.

I used to play pretty much only arena, but the constructed meta is at a great point right now so that's what I had been doing for a few months. I think TGT will be an overall improvement.

[Fluffy]

 rogerclee, on 2015-August-12, 07:36, said:

I used to play a lot, now it comes and goes for me, but I somewhat regret not taking HS more seriously during the beginnings of the game. I think it's a great game.

I used to play pretty much only arena, but the constructed meta is at a great point right now so that's what I had been doing for a few months. I think TGT will be an overall improvement.

Why am I not surprised?

[rogerclee]

 Fluffy, on 2015-August-13, 14:18, said:

Why am I not surprised?

Haha, not surprised you like to play it also. It's a nice fun game and even though it seems casual and luck-based, there is a lot of room for improvement for basically all players.

[Fluffy]

However I played duels of might and magic before hearthstone, I had a big collection there. but I got bored of some decks that totally locked you down and didn't let you enjoy. Blizzard does a great job not allowing cards that steal fun from opponent (force discards, destroy mana, etc, etc).

Only deck that was close to that was antonydas with claockfield and ice blocks, or perhaps if someone ever draws mal ganis and master of disguise from the portals. But at least if that happens it will be fast. Not turn after turn seeing opponent playing a 3-5 combo cards that leave you inable to play.

[Fluffy]

My mission strategy was to ditch anything that was 40 coins, and keep 60+, but now there are missions worth 50, not sure if I should ditche them or not.

[Cyberyeti]

 Fluffy, on 2015-August-21, 08:23, said:

My mission strategy was to ditch anything that was 40 coins, and keep 60+, but now there are missions worth 50, not sure if I should ditche them or not.

Are they classes you happily play, I ditched the "win 3 with druid" because I didn't have a decent druid deck.

[Fluffy]

I play arena...

[Cyberyeti]

 Fluffy, on 2015-August-21, 15:51, said:

I play arena...

Which classes do you not like playing in arena, ditch those, keep the rest.

[Antrax]

I'm willing to play anything but warrior in arena.

I've spent the past week pushing for legend. Currently at rank 1, yesterday I hovered there since the meta seems different, with legend players trying out offbeat decks.