[wank]

You're 54 up so opps might be swinging...

64
J543
J85
Aqj8

All vul

Pass on left, 1s from p, 3nt on right, you smack it. Your lead.

---

opp led a low heart which as you can see was monumentally unsuccessful. most people thought this was a terrible choice. i thought there was a bit of resulting going on and it was a very difficult decision.

don't bother commenting on the 3nt bid - we were trying to generate swings to get our imps back.

[PhantomSac]

It's tough, if you lead the CA you might set up their 9th that way, but if you lead a spade (or a heart) they might run 9 on you when you had lots of cashing tricks. In a book it might be that the DJ is the only winning lead lol. On a spade lead partner might not find the right shift also if spade over club through is necessary (they will be pretty blind).

I would probably just lead the ace of clubs.

[1eyedjack]

I reckon declarer has a source of tricks plus Spade guard (or 2)

The source of tricks is Diamonds.

If I were going to lead Clubs I think I would choose Queen. I don't expect Ace to crash singleton King, and I have no entries. If King is in dummy they may hold up a round

But I kind of fancy a heart.

[eagles123]

I would just lead a spade but this basically seems like a guess between a spade and a club?

[eagles123]

1eyedjack, on 2015-April-26, 14:29, said:

I reckon declarer has a source of tricks plus Spade guard (or 2)

The source of tricks is Diamonds.

If I were going to lead Clubs I think I would choose Queen. I don't expect Ace to crash singleton King, and I have no entries. If King is in dummy they may hold up a round

But I kind of fancy a heart.

could just as easily be hearts

[nige1]

wank, on 2015-April-26, 12:47, said:

All vul ♠ 6 4 ♥ J 5 4 3 ♦ J 8 5 ♣ A Q J 8
You're 54 up so opps might be swinging...
Pass on left, 1s from p, 3nt on right, you smack it. Your lead.

IMO, ♦5 (Hoping to endplay RHO) = 10, ♥5 = 9, ♣ A = 8, ♠ 6 = 7.
RHO has, at best, something like

• ♠ K x ♥ A ♦ A K Q x x x x ♣ K T x or
• ♠ A ♥ Q x x ♦ A K Q x x x x ♣ K x or
• ♠ x x x ♥ A x ♦ A K Q x x x x ♣ K x (a cunning bluff) or
• ♠ AQ ♥ A K Q T x x x ♦ x x ♣ K x less likely
• ♠A ♥ J x ♦ A K Q x x x x x x ♣ x x in which case, you apologize for your ♦ lead.

[1eyedjack]

eagles123, on 2015-April-26, 15:58, said:

could just as easily be hearts

Could be hearts, but I double "just as easily". I have one more hearts than Diamonds, and if hearts is his source of tricks he may contemplate 4H as an alternative to 3N when he might not contemplate 5D.

[KurtGodel]

1eyedjack, on 2015-April-26, 14:29, said:

I reckon declarer has a source of tricks plus Spade guard (or 2)

The source of tricks is Diamonds.

If I were going to lead Clubs I think I would choose Queen. I don't expect Ace to crash singleton King, and I have no entries. If King is in dummy they may hold up a round

But I kind of fancy a heart.

The problem with leading the queen is that declarer could have something like A xx AKQTxxx Kxx, and now when you lead the queen the contract is cold, this has all the disadvantages of lead the A♣ but none of the advantages. Whereas if you had led the ace you could now switch to hearts. I don't think a spade can be right, it could easily be that declarer has a positional holding but no good way of getting to dummy. It would suck to lead a spade if declarer had something like AQx x AKQTxxx Kx. I think I will just try a diamond and hope that declarer cannot cash. Could easily be wrong though.