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Hillary and the ordinary people

#141 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 08:25

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-25, 07:09, said:

This is interesting from several perspectives. The economics, certainly. But also the trouble that arises when we start calling people names. :Charlatans and Cranks" was in the first edition of his text but was removed for the second edition by demand ot the publisher, and Mankiw now agrees. And Bernstein writes "Economists sometimes serve vested interests, and will change their views accordingly. The best example is also one of the best economists, Greg Mankiw.".. If you go to the link and read the follow-up conversation between the two, Bernstein expresses surprise that Manikw took offense by this"Having read your website reacting to my TPM post, you and your readers got me all wrong. I certainly didn't accuse you of hypocrisy and meant no offense at all. In fact, I called you one of the best economists, and have always enjoyed your work, " Uh huh.Well, I can see why Manikw did not take Bernstein's words as a compliment. Being called a really talented prostitute is, at best, a mixed compliment.

The Art of Controversy by Arthur Shopenhauer has an entertaining and useful discussion of ad hominem and ad personam arguments:

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Another trick is to use arguments ad hominem, or ex concessis* When your opponent makes a proposition, you must try to see whether it is not in some way — if needs be, only apparently — inconsistent with some other proposition which he has made or admitted, or with the principles of a school or sect which he has commended and approved, or with the actions of those who support the sect, or else of those who give it only an apparent and spurious support, or with his own actions or want of action. For example, should he defend suicide, you may at once exclaim, “Why don’t you hang yourself?” Should he maintain that Berlin is an unpleasant place to live in, you may say, “Why don’t you leave by the first train?” Some such claptrap is always possible.

* The truth from which I draw my proof may he either (1) of an objective and universally valid character; in that case my proof is veracious, secundum veritatem; and it is such proof alone that has any genuine validity. Or (2) it may be valid only for the person to whom I wish to prove my proposition, and with whom I am disputing. He has, that is to say, either taken up some position once for all as a prejudice, or hastily admitted it in the course of the dispute; and on this I ground my proof. In that case, it is a proof valid only for this particular man, ad hominem. I compel my opponent to grant my proposition, but I fail to establish it as a truth of universal validity. My proof avails for my opponent alone, but for no one else. For example, if my opponent is a devotee of Kant’s, and I ground my proof on some utterance of that philosopher, it is a proof which in itself is only ad hominem. If he is a Mohammedan, I may prove my point by reference to a passage in the Koran, and that is sufficient for him; but here it is only a proof ad hominem.


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A last trick is to become personal, insulting, rude, as soon as you perceive that your opponent has the upper hand, and that you are going to come off worst. It consists in passing from the subject of dispute, as from a lost game, to the disputant himself, and in some way attacking his person. It may be called the argumentum ad personam, to distinguish it from the argumentum ad hominem, which passes from the objective discussion of the subject pure and simple to the statements or admissions which your opponent has made in regard to it. But in becoming personal you leave the subject altogether, and turn your attack to his person, by remarks of an offensive and spiteful character. It is an appeal from the virtues of the intellect to the virtues of the body, or to mere animalism. This is a very popular trick, because every one is able to carry it into effect; and so it is of frequent application. Now the question is, What counter-trick avails for the other party? for if he has recourse to the same rule, there will be blows, or a duel, or an action for slander.

It would be a great mistake to suppose that it is sufficient not to become personal yourself. For by showing a man quite quietly that he is wrong, and that what he says and thinks is incorrect — a process which occurs in every dialectical victory — you embitter him more than if you used some rude or insulting expression. Why is this? Because, as Hobbes observes,* all mental pleasure consists in being able to compare oneself with others to one’s own advantage. Nothing is of greater moment to a man than the gratification of his vanity, and no wound is more painful than that which is inflicted on it. Hence such phrases as “Death before dishonour,” and so on. The gratification of vanity arises mainly by comparison of oneself with others, in every respect, but chiefly in respect of one’s intellectual powers; and so the most effective and the strongest gratification of it is to be found in controversy. Hence the embitterment of defeat, apart from any question of injustice; and hence recourse to that last weapon, that last trick, which you cannot evade by mere politeness. A cool demeanour may, however, help you here, if, as soon as your opponent becomes personal, you quietly reply, “That has no bearing on the point in dispute,” and immediately bring the conversation back to it, and continue to show him that he is wrong, without taking any notice of his insults. Say, as Themistocles said to Eurybiades — Strike, but hear me. But such demeanour is not given to every one.

* Elementa philosophica de Cive.

As a sharpening of wits, controversy is often, indeed, of mutual advantage, in order to correct one’s thoughts and awaken new views. But in learning and in mental power both disputants must be tolerably equal. If one of them lacks learning, he will fail to understand the other, as he is not on the same level with his antagonist. If he lacks mental power, he will be embittered, and led into dishonest tricks, and end by being rude.

The only safe rule, therefore, is that which Aristotle mentions in the last chapter of his Topica: not to dispute with the first person you meet, but only with those of your acquaintance of whom you know that they possess sufficient intelligence and self-respect not to advance absurdities; to appeal to reason and not to authority, and to listen to reason and yield to it; and, finally, to cherish truth, to be willing to accept reason even from an opponent, and to be just enough to bear being proved to be in the wrong, should truth lie with him. From this it follows that scarcely one man in a hundred is worth your disputing with him. You may let the remainder say what they please, for every one is at liberty to be a fool — desipere est jus gentium. Remember what Voltaire says: La paix vaut encore mieux que la vérité**. Remember also an Arabian proverb which tells us that on the tree of silence there hangs its fruit, which is peace.


** Peace is better than the truth; I hardly knew neither one nor the other in this world.
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#142 User is online   PassedOut 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 08:34

I've actually talked with people who think that tax cuts more than pay for themselves in increased tax revenue. Wouldn't call them charlatans or cranks though, but folks who've been fooled by charlatans and cranks and lack the ability to discern that.
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#143 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 09:13

View PostPassedOut, on 2015-April-25, 08:34, said:

I've actually talked with people who think that tax cuts more than pay for themselves in increased tax revenue. Wouldn't call them charlatans or cranks though, but folks who've been fooled by charlatans and cranks and lack the ability to discern that.


This is what happens when (IMO) political choices are governed by belief systems, as the political leaders (as proxy for preachers) make proclamations that are accepted as truth (by the laymen) without sufficient objective validation as to the veracity of the claim. Just as the story of Moses leading the Jews out of Egypt became accepted as fact, with no supportive objective evidence, so, too, does the idea of tax cuts paying for themselves become "fact" for the political laymen when it is "preached" to them over and over.

There is a reason Fox News is the most watched news network, and (IMO) it is because the Mr. Murdoch learned how to manipulate viewers by showing acceptance of non-verifiable stories as facts (i.e., Moses and the 10 commandments) and providing the same assumed-fact slant to Fox news stories. But reality can find no objective evidence of "The Exodus" while "Some people say..." does not constitute either a "fact" or "news".
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#144 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 09:51

From A Better Way to Rein In Lobbying by Lee Drutman, the author of “The Business of America Is Lobbying: How Corporations Became Politicized and Politics Became More Corporate.”

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It’s easy to get depressed about the state of American democracy. But we don’t need to be. The solutions are not overly complicated: Give government the resources it needs to think for itself and to develop policy without having to depend almost entirely on outside lobbyists. Make sure all sides have the resources to make their best case. The politics of checks and balances can do the rest.

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#145 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 09:59

View Postcherdano, on 2015-April-25, 06:07, said:

Come on, Adam, you are too smart for cheap arguments like this. Your argument boils down to "the housing crash happened during the Bush administration". The causes for the housing crash are complicated, and supply side economics are pretty far down the list, if they should be listed at all.


It's more of an anecdote than an argument. But the trend of the economy doing better under demand-side economics is actually quite well documented. The same comparison would hold for Clinton vs. Reagan, for example. Or you can get better information at the state level, where governors like Scott Walker and Sam Brownback have implemented supply-side schemes to great fanfare and grandiose claims about the economic benefits, only to see their states perform worse than neighboring states with different policies.

My personal experience doesn't have much to add here though, because I was still in college during the Clinton administration and have never lived in a state where the Republicans had full control of government.

Lower taxes are well and good, but people with money to invest do a lot better when the stock market does better and this is usually enough to outweigh an extra tax on gains.
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#146 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 11:04

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-24, 16:22, said:

I can't go outside and walk down the street naked. I don't actually want to, but anyway I can't.

Sure you can. There will be consequences, of course. There would be consequences (what will the neighbors think of you?) even if it weren't illegal.
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#147 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 11:12

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-24, 16:22, said:

That's what a society does, it imposes requirements on its members.

The folks who founded this country attempted to go another way. They suggested that "…to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…"

In practice, government is force. It imposes not by the consent of the governed, but by the threat of force.

Someone upthread said that filing tax returns in the US is voluntary. Really? What do you think would happen if you didn't. Okay, the IRS doesn't currently have to manpower to go after the little guy. What about Bill Gates? Suppose he just doesn't file, and when they go after him (and they will) he says "but filing is voluntary, I don't have to do it"? What do you think would happen?
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#148 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 11:28

View Postblackshoe, on 2015-April-25, 11:12, said:

The folks who founded this country attempted to go another way. They suggested that "…to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…"

In practice, government is force. It imposes not by the consent of the governed, but by the threat of force.

Someone upthread said that filing tax returns in the US is voluntary. Really? What do you think would happen if you didn't. Okay, the IRS doesn't currently have to manpower to go after the little guy. What about Bill Gates? Suppose he just doesn't file, and when they go after him (and they will) he says "but filing is voluntary, I don't have to do it"? What do you think would happen?


Oddly, I also was thinking of choosing this very same line from the Declaration. The practical fact is that "the consent of the governed" does not and cannot mean the "unanimous consent of the governed". We would never do anything. I realize you would like the gov to do a lot less, but I doubt that this extends to not wanting the government to do a thing unless it first gets absolutely unanimous consent. So "consent of the governed" means "via some sort of democratic process where everyone gets a vote", with the power of the majority having at least some constraint. We could think a bit about the philosophy behind these constraints. The "tyranny of the majority" is often mentioned, but now the problem may really be more "the tyranny of the super rich". Rich people can be good people just as a voting majority can be made up of mostly good people, but I think it is in keeping with our traditions to rein in power when it becomes excessive. Busting up trusts was once important, regulating super pacs can be important. If we approach this with the philosophy of "In order to form a more perfect union" we have a shot at getting it right.

As to tax being voluntary. You hear that sometimes (I don't recall it up thread but could be). It's not voluntary, just like it's not theft. Anyway, whether voluntary or theft, it isn't going away.
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#149 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2015-April-25, 13:41

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-25, 11:28, said:

Oddly, I also was thinking of choosing this very same line from the Declaration. The practical fact is that "the consent of the governed" does not and cannot mean the "unanimous consent of the governed". We would never do anything. I realize you would like the gov to do a lot less, but I doubt that this extends to not wanting the government to do a thing unless it first gets absolutely unanimous consent. So "consent of the governed" means "via some sort of democratic process where everyone gets a vote", with the power of the majority having at least some constraint. We could think a bit about the philosophy behind these constraints. The "tyranny of the majority" is often mentioned, but now the problem may really be more "the tyranny of the super rich". Rich people can be good people just as a voting majority can be made up of mostly good people, but I think it is in keeping with our traditions to rein in power when it becomes excessive. Busting up trusts was once important, regulating super pacs can be important. If we approach this with the philosophy of "In order to form a more perfect union" we have a shot at getting it right.

Interestingly, L. Neil Smith based an entire alternate world series on the premise that the word "unanimous" did appear in the final version of the declaration. That resulted in a world in which the Whiskey Rebellion succeeded, Washington was executed for treason, and the Articles of Confederation (suitably amended over time) still govern two hundred years later (the first book, The Probability Broach, was set in 1987). Yes, it's fiction. Still a fun read, imo.

One scene I especially liked: the main character, from something like, and yet unlike, our version of reality, is getting a tour of the capital, a small town in Kansas that is deserted unless the Continental Congress is in session — and that only occurs when a major crisis is imminent. He's shown a corridor with framed pictures of all the Presidents of the Continental Congress. At one point the guide stops, points at one of the frames and says "and this was our proudest moment". There is no picture in the frame, only a small brass plaque on which is engraved "None of the above is acceptable." :P

Another quote from that first book: "Telephone operator" (not a human, apparently an AI) says "Sir, I have nine billion listings on three planets, nine moons, and twenty seven asteroids, and there is no 'Denver, City and County of'!"

Oh, and the current President of the NA Confederacy is Hugh Featherstone-Haugh (pronounced "Fanshaw") an African mountain gorilla.

I did mention this is fiction, right? :lol: :lol:

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-25, 11:28, said:

As to tax being voluntary. You hear that sometimes (I don't recall it up thread but could be). It's not voluntary, just like it's not theft. Anyway, whether voluntary or theft, it isn't going away.

What that last at least I agree. B-)
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#150 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 06:22

If we go to fiction for political thoughts, certainly one of my favorites comes from my absolutely favorite noir film of the 1940s. The Third Man. Harry Lime (Orson Welles) is explaining life to the naive and idealistic Holly Martins (Joseph Cotton). I take the quote from here

Quote

Don't be so gloomy. After all it's not that awful. Like the fella says, in Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock. So long Holly.


No, I don't see the world this way. Harry Lime was created by Graham Greene as total evil. But I do think that a little skepticism now and then can be extremely useful.

I remain interested in just how people do come to decisions. The title of this thread refers to Hillary Clinton and "ordinary people". Ordinary people seldom have deep discussions about quantum field theory. Nor are they prepared to hold their own with a professional economist. In this sense, I regard myself as ordinary. The difference between these two fields is that most people realize that they do not understand quantum field theory but an absurdly large number of people think that they fully understand economics.

Still, we vote, so we must choose. Ordinary people will elect the president. Someone once observed that all important decisions are made on the basis of insufficient information.
Ken
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#151 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 06:25

View Postblackshoe, on 2015-April-25, 13:41, said:

Interestingly, L. Neil Smith based an entire alternate world series on the premise that the word "unanimous" did appear in the final version of the declaration. That resulted in a world in which the Whiskey Rebellion succeeded, Washington was executed for treason, and the Articles of Confederation (suitably amended over time) still govern two hundred years later (the first book, The Probability Broach, was set in 1987). Yes, it's fiction. Still a fun read, imo.

One scene I especially liked: the main character, from something like, and yet unlike, our version of reality, is getting a tour of the capital, a small town in Kansas that is deserted unless the Continental Congress is in session — and that only occurs when a major crisis is imminent. He's shown a corridor with framed pictures of all the Presidents of the Continental Congress. At one point the guide stops, points at one of the frames and says "and this was our proudest moment". There is no picture in the frame, only a small brass plaque on which is engraved "None of the above is acceptable." :P

Another quote from that first book: "Telephone operator" (not a human, apparently an AI) says "Sir, I have nine billion listings on three planets, nine moons, and twenty seven asteroids, and there is no 'Denver, City and County of'!"

Oh, and the current President of the NA Confederacy is Hugh Featherstone-Haugh (pronounced "Fanshaw") an African mountain gorilla.

I did mention this is fiction, right? :lol: :lol:



Does the fact that your preferred form of government only appears in works of fiction ever give you pause for thought?
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#152 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 11:38

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-26, 06:22, said:

No, I don't see the world this way. Harry Lime was created by Graham Greene as total evil. But I do think that a little skepticism now and then can be extremely useful.

That was such a good movie. When I read The Quiet American, I appreciated its similar handling of the idealism theme.

Of course, it may also be prudent to be skeptical of pithy quotes or, at least, to know when poetic license is being employed vs factual accounts from history. Wikipedia has this anecdote from Orson Welles: "When the picture came out, the Swiss very nicely pointed out to me that they've never made any cuckoo clocks", as the clocks are native to the German Black Forest.” In "La Place de la Concorde Suisse", John McPhee observes:

Quote

Greene was not the author of the line about the Borgias and Switzerland. They were interpolated by the ingenious Welles, who may have chosen to suppress in his memory that when Italy was enjoying the Borgias, Switzerland was enjoying a reputation as -- to quote Douglas Miller's "Swiss at War" -- "the most powerful and feared military force in Europe". Switzerland was about as neutral in those days as had been Mongolia under Genghis Kahn.

So much for creeps like Harry Lime crediting terror, bloodshed and rule by Italian one percenters with the origins of the Renaissance.
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#153 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 13:14

It has often been said that we should never let truth get in the way of a good story. In this case I did indeed take it to be poetic license, even without knowing much Italian history or, especially, Swiss history.
Ken
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#154 User is online   blackshoe 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 17:49

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-26, 06:22, said:

If we go to fiction for political thoughts, certainly one of my favorites comes from my absolutely favorite noir film of the 1940s. The Third Man. Harry Lime (Orson Welles) is explaining life to the naive and idealistic Holly Martins (Joseph Cotton). I take the quote from here



No, I don't see the world this way. Harry Lime was created by Graham Greene as total evil. But I do think that a little skepticism now and then can be extremely useful.

I remain interested in just how people do come to decisions. The title of this thread refers to Hillary Clinton and "ordinary people". Ordinary people seldom have deep discussions about quantum field theory. Nor are they prepared to hold their own with a professional economist. In this sense, I regard myself as ordinary. The difference between these two fields is that most people realize that they do not understand quantum field theory but an absurdly large number of people think that they fully understand economics.

Still, we vote, so we must choose. Ordinary people will elect the president. Someone once observed that all important decisions are made on the basis of insufficient information.

I saw that movie when I was very young. I was two when it came out, so it was some years after that. All I remember of it is that I liked it. I couldn't even tell you why. :ph34r:
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#155 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 18:53

View Postblackshoe, on 2015-April-26, 17:49, said:

I saw that movie when I was very young. I was two when it came out, so it was some years after that. All I remember of it is that I liked it. I couldn't even tell you why. :ph34r:


I'll only hijack for a little while here to talk about The Third Man. Some friends saw it recently for the first time and did not like it. As near as I can remember, they are the only people I know who have not liked it. There are some very touching scenes, maybe difficult to get across in print but let me try with one of them.


The setting is divided Vienna, after the war. Anna (Valli) holds a forged passport, being (I think) Czech the Russians would claim her (as she put it). As the plot develops, Inspector Calloway (Trevor Howard) is looking at Anna's passport and questioning her about her relationship with Harry Lime.
Anna He just did one thing for me, a small thing.
Calloway: And what is that?
Anna: You have it in your hand.

Much of the theme is how people cope with being in way over their heads, in big ways and small. Calloway narrates in the beginning, noting the absurdity of the city being divided into four pieces run by four nations, so with people not knowing the language of the city or the language of each other.

Anyway, I highly recommend it.

Back to politics!
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#156 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 19:27

Short commercial break ...

The American Film Institute in Silver Spring, Maryland is running a retrospective on the works of Orson Welles from April 17 thru July 1 which ends with a one-week run of The Third Man starting June 26.
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#157 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2015-April-26, 19:42

View Posty66, on 2015-April-26, 19:27, said:

Short commercial break ...

The American Film Institute in Silver Spring, Maryland is running a retrospective on the works of Orson Welles from April 17 thru July 1 which ends with a one-week run of The Third Man starting June 26.



Thank you greatly. I will gather up a group to go see it.
Ken
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#158 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

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Posted 2015-April-27, 01:16

View Postkenberg, on 2015-April-12, 19:00, said:

My first thought about states was that Maryland, where I live, always votes Democratic. but wait, we just elected a Republican governor. And I voted for him. I would advise Democratic strategists to not get over-confident. If they can arrange to run against someone who likes to compare himself to Galileo that will boost their chances.

Specifically about Hillary: I have been told many times that she is very smart. Possibly it is even true. I have an open mind on that.

Actually, I think the country is in deep stuff.


The candidates shouldn't matter one iota - never has the gap between the GOP and the Democrats been bigger. The reason America is in deep is because people somehow think this is a personality battle between Hillary and whoever the republican clown car spits out. But look at the party policies for even 5 seconds:

Democrats pro social safety nut, republicans gut the ACA, medicare and convert medicare to a voucher system
Democrats pro high income tax hikes, and probably extent - Republicans cut taxes on the wealth and cut programs like food stamps that lower the effective tax rate on lower income family
Democrats pro 2010 finacial reform, republicans cut it including consumer protections
Democrats pro climate policy (if required to be exec action), republicans would block efforts to regulate.

That's just the fist 4 things that spring to mind, igoring supreme court justices - it's not inconceivable that 1-2 more republican justices could see gay marriage overturned. Trying to make it about Hillary's personality is what is wrong with the system.
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#159 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2015-April-27, 02:07

View PostCthulhu D, on 2015-April-27, 01:16, said:

That's just the fist 4 things that spring to mind, igoring supreme court justices. Trying to make it about Hillary's personality is what is wrong with the system.


From afar, the American presidential election looks more like a beauty contest than a serious debate about anything. (Not that much of the rest of the world has a lot to crow about!)
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
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#160 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2015-April-27, 04:02

View PostCthulhu D, on 2015-April-27, 01:16, said:

The candidates shouldn't matter one iota - never has the gap between the GOP and the Democrats been bigger. The reason America is in deep is because people somehow think this is a personality battle between Hillary and whoever the republican clown car spits out. But look at the party policies for even 5 seconds:

Democrats pro social safety nut, republicans gut the ACA, medicare and convert medicare to a voucher system
Democrats pro high income tax hikes, and probably extent - Republicans cut taxes on the wealth and cut programs like food stamps that lower the effective tax rate on lower income family
Democrats pro 2010 finacial reform, republicans cut it including consumer protections
Democrats pro climate policy (if required to be exec action), republicans would block efforts to regulate.

That's just the fist 4 things that spring to mind, igoring supreme court justices - it's not inconceivable that 1-2 more republican justices could see gay marriage overturned. Trying to make it about Hillary's personality is what is wrong with the system.


you present a good view, we can debate/discuss the corners but ya
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I note you present zero I mean zero reasons why one is better than the other but yes.

If the debate is dems want to help most of us and rep want to hurt most of us....ok.
If the debate is dems help 99% of us and rep help 1% of us ok.
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