[shevek]

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[mr1303]

Clearcut 3NT. Pass might work, but that's a spin of the roulette wheel.

[mgoetze]

mr1303, on 2015-February-19, 20:11, said:

Clearcut 3NT.

Yeah, that's what I thought. Then I noticed that partner was dealer.

[Fluffy]

Pass: Our cards are bad for declaring, with presumed strength on our left. But we should get some second/third round tricks on defence.

[Cyberyeti]

Depends slightly on style of double in 4th seat. We double with any hand short in hearts regardless of count in 4th seat and make a lot more trap passes than most in 2nd. I have a terrible hand for declaring, we won't have 3N on opposite anything we would pass opposite so I guess I'm stuck with signing for -730 if partner has a bad hand, and hoping he has enough to get +200. It really wouldn't surprise me if declarer has some 7411 and we end up signing for -930 even with partner holding something fairly decent.

[gszes]

Do not see us making much but feel 4d is best chance at avoiding total disaster. True that we might get lucky and set 3h if we pass but the math does not look that great. Opps will probably score 6 heart tricks so that leaves us needing 5 tricks out of the last 7. The heart K is one of those so
we need 4 tricks out of the last 6. Let's assume p has around 10 hcp we have 10 so the opps have around 20 also but 8 of those are probably in the
heart suit so the actual count is 20 to around 12. our average is 5 to 3 but we need to outscore the opps by 2/1 to set. The defense actually has an
advantage here in that declarer's hand is practically an open book so slipping a trick is unlikely so the odds of a set are much better than normal.

BUT where are the aces?? shoot if lho has 3 of them we are completely toast and even with 2 of them and a QT opener with Jxx same suit and they have 9 tricks and we have bupkus. For those that do not mind playing roulette pass at MP (where it is only 1 board) seems like slightly better than a
50% shot. At IMPS I am pretty certain pass is a huge loser. Remember that 4d has can win by going down only 2 (in case most of the opps do not balance) and there is a fair chance it makes even while 3h makes which makes it a much better MP try also and does make p quake in fear anytime they try a balance under these conditions. IMHO 4d = 8 pass = 5.5 3n = 2 (and that 2 is generous)

[MrAce]

gszes, on 2015-February-20, 18:13, said:

Do not see us making much but feel 4d is best chance at avoiding total disaster.

Another way to avoid disaster is not to be a contender at all. But once you decide to play, you have to make decisions like this and trying to avoid disaster won't get you anywhere except than finishing somewhere in the middle. Yes pass may end up -730, it is possible but it is also possible that we play a 4-3 fit 4♦ doubled.

[Phil]

Auto pass like Timo ♥.

[Trinidad]

Fluffy, on 2015-February-20, 04:37, said:

Pass: Our cards are bad for declaring, with presumed strength on our left.

+1

and we have an obvious, WTP lead.

Rik