LoTT is a parabola not a straight line
				
						#101
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-11, 12:34
https://www.youtube....h?v=qjOZtWZ56lc
George Carlin
				
						#102
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-12, 08:47
 kuhchung, on 2014-November-11, 12:28, said:
kuhchung, on 2014-November-11, 12:28, said:
This is my favorite bridge topic for discussion. Where do tricks come from? How are
they generated? Which parameters are best for estimating tricks? Which parameters
are easy to use and relatively accurate for measuring tricks?
Power and Pattern
There are two independent random variables to measure tricks. They are power and pattern.
Power is the set of all parameters measuring tricks by using honors and high spot cards.
Pattern is the set of all parameters measuring tricks by using the length and shortness of suits.
L/W calls power Winning Points. HCP is a parameter of power which is proportional
to tricks. Both trumps and SST are subgroups of pattern. Trumps is the parameter of
pattern which is proportional to tricks.
Our tricks
E(tricks) = trumps + (HCP-20)/3 + SST
Only reliable when expected tricks is 10 or less. Other variables, not included into
this formula, come into play in high level auctions. There's nothing sacred about
this formula. This formula gives insight to the number of tricks available. It is a
tool. A guideline to assist the evaluation of tricks for the partnership. It certainly
isn't a law.
In general case the SST is a fractional displacement of the estimates by trumps and
HCP. That is the average displacement over a large number of boards. For any
specific board SST displacements are measured in integer increments.. Often
there is no displacement. Sometimes the displacement is two or more tricks.
Singletons and voids aren't worth any number of points. HCP is a subparameter
of power. Suit shortness is a subparameter of pattern. Stop adjusting the points.
HCP and suit shortness are subparameters of different independent random
variables. Valuation models should measure the tricks, not points.
				
						#103
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-12, 10:57
George Carlin
				
						#104
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-12, 14:24
 
						
						
				
						#105
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-12, 14:25
 gwnn, on 2014-November-11, 12:34, said:
gwnn, on 2014-November-11, 12:34, said:
https://www.youtube....h?v=qjOZtWZ56lc
Thank you for introducing me to this.
https://www.youtube....hungPlaysBridge
				
						#106
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-12, 16:26
				
						#107
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-12, 17:04
 kuhchung, on 2014-November-12, 14:25, said:
kuhchung, on 2014-November-12, 14:25, said:
np, it's my favourite game show ever.
George Carlin
				
						#108
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-17, 10:19
				
						#110
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-17, 21:15
 gwnn, on 2014-November-11, 12:34, said:
gwnn, on 2014-November-11, 12:34, said:
 campboy, on 2014-November-07, 04:41, said:
campboy, on 2014-November-07, 04:41, said:
 jdeegan, on 2014-November-17, 10:19, said:
jdeegan, on 2014-November-17, 10:19, said:
 When a PC pupil expressed his concern "Mightn't that hurt an Englishman's feelings?", the teacher reassured him "Don't worry, he won't understand it".
 When a PC pupil expressed his concern "Mightn't that hurt an Englishman's feelings?", the teacher reassured him "Don't worry, he won't understand it".
						
						
				
						#111
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-18, 04:23
 nige1, on 2014-November-17, 21:15, said:
nige1, on 2014-November-17, 21:15, said:
I can give you more if you want. As I said upthread, this isn't a simulation; it's an exact calculation.
[edit] The precise value, for anyone who may be interested, is 14574888024790152694633 / 24852706986690307830040. Unless there's a mistake in my program, of course.
				
						#112
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-November-18, 13:33
 campboy, on 2014-November-18, 04:23, said:
campboy, on 2014-November-18, 04:23, said:
[edit] The precise value, for anyone who may be interested, is 14574888024790152694633 / 24852706986690307830040. Unless there's a mistake in my program, of course.
*ding* That's NumberWang!
https://www.youtube....hungPlaysBridge
				
						#113
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2014-December-04, 15:43
https://www.youtube....hungPlaysBridge
				
						#114
						
								 
							  
								
						
					
				
				Posted 2015-April-10, 11:44
 kuhchung, on 2014-December-04, 15:43, said:
kuhchung, on 2014-December-04, 15:43, said:
I hate to bump it too but I missed this message last year. yes I have seen it
 it's awesome.
 it's awesome.
						
						George Carlin

 Help
 Help
 
			
		
 
						
						
