1D precision (with 14-16 NT) How often its a balanced hand ?
#1
Posted 2013-November-11, 21:19
If you play neg free bid
1D-(1S)-???
Do you bid 2H on
Axx
QTxxx
Kx
xxx
on the assumption that hes very often balanced ?
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#2
Posted 2013-November-12, 05:56
#3
Posted 2013-November-12, 08:59
#4
Posted 2013-November-12, 14:28
Adjusting (roughly) for 14-16 NT, add 1/3 more for 13 hcp hands excluded = 40% for balanced hands that must open 1D.
Hmmm .... this seems low.
Going back to basic math / probabilities, I recalculate and get 71.5 %.
I just talked (calculated) myself out of playing 14-16 NT and letting the opponents overcall 1D with 1 of either Major. :<(
C3: Copious Canape Club is still my favorite system. (Ultra upgraded, PM for notes)
Santa Fe Precision ♣ published 8/19. TOP3 published 11/20. Magic experiment (Science Modernized) with Lenzo. 2020: Jan Eric Larsson's Cottontail ♣. 2020. BFUN (Bridge For the UNbalanced) 2021: Weiss Simplified ♣ (Canape & Relay). 2022: Canary ♣ Modernized, 2023-4: KOK Canape.
#5
Posted 2013-November-13, 07:31
As for tv, screw it. You aren't missing anything. -- Ken Berg
I have come to realise it is futile to expect or hope a regular club game will be run in accordance with the laws. -- Jillybean
#6
Posted 2013-November-13, 10:09
blackshoe, on 2013-November-13, 07:31, said:
Not really, because including a strong NT in your 1♦ opening has severe consequences...
#7
Posted 2013-November-13, 21:22
Free, on 2013-November-13, 10:09, said:
Maybe, maybe not. IMO 16 hcp hands can be upgraded to 1♣ opening or down graded to 15 and opened 1♦ K-S Style. Opening 1NT with a 11-14 hcp range (per K-S) is workable and great for matchpoint pairs.
C3: Copious Canape Club is still my favorite system. (Ultra upgraded, PM for notes)
Santa Fe Precision ♣ published 8/19. TOP3 published 11/20. Magic experiment (Science Modernized) with Lenzo. 2020: Jan Eric Larsson's Cottontail ♣. 2020. BFUN (Bridge For the UNbalanced) 2021: Weiss Simplified ♣ (Canape & Relay). 2022: Canary ♣ Modernized, 2023-4: KOK Canape.
#8
Posted 2013-November-14, 06:33
#9
Posted 2013-November-14, 11:45
Maybe I'm weird.
#10
Posted 2013-November-14, 23:22
Weak NT: 440752
Three suiter with diams: 57250
(*)Three suiter short diams: 16812
Five-five minors: 22574
(*)Six-plus clubs: 110733
Six-plus diamonds: 102422
(*)5C-4M-short diams: 22553
5C-4M-3D: 23498
5C-4M-22 weak NT: 28472
5C-4D unbal: 24195
5C-4D-22 weak NT: 15030
5D-4x unbal: 67276
5D-4x-22 weak NT: 41934
(*)5D-4x-22 14/15 high: 12947
Assuming that the * hands do not open 1D, we have:
Weak NT: 440,752 (53.5%)
Semi-balanced weak NT: 85,436 (10.4%)
Six-plus diamonds: 102,422 (12.4%)
Other unbalanced: 194,793 (23.7%)
Obviously this depends a bit on which hands open 1D and what you call "balanced" but it seems like the number will be around 64% balanced hand for a fairly standard precision system with these notrump ranges.
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#11
Posted 2013-November-15, 01:53
awm, on 2013-November-14, 23:22, said:
Weak NT: 440752
Three suiter with diams: 57250
(*)Three suiter short diams: 16812
Five-five minors: 22574
(*)Six-plus clubs: 110733
Six-plus diamonds: 102422
(*)5C-4M-short diams: 22553
5C-4M-3D: 23498
5C-4M-22 weak NT: 28472
5C-4D unbal: 24195
5C-4D-22 weak NT: 15030
5D-4x unbal: 67276
5D-4x-22 weak NT: 41934
(*)5D-4x-22 14/15 high: 12947
Why are the 6+club and 6+diamond figures so different? These numbers don't look right to me. My estimate was wrong too, I forgot to remove 5M332 from the 1D opening, which gives me 57-58% - but that was without removing 5D422 14-15, so I'd expect your method to produce a higher figure.
#12
Posted 2013-November-15, 06:37
the_clown, on 2013-November-14, 06:33, said:
I think it is better to double and forget the hearts if partner can not bid them.
With ♠Axx it is quite likely you belong in 1NT from opener's side if he can not bid 2♥
I also think opener should bid 2♥ when he would have raised with a 3 card suit over 1♦ - 1♥
If you make a negative free bid of 2♥ with a five card suit, the suit should be better.
Rainer Herrmann
#14
Posted 2013-November-15, 16:25
Im not really convinced because 4135,4144,4153,3154,3145,2155,2164 seems like a lot of hands here 2H would be awful.
http://bridgewinners...-highest-level/
Its was BAM format.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#15
Posted 2013-November-16, 03:16
MickyB, on 2013-November-15, 06:46, said:
xx
KJx
Axxx
Jxxx
If this is the hand of the 1♦ opener I bid 2♥ in response to a negative double.
If this is responders hand I pass. I know this is a minority view.
I agree with Jdonn's comment on a different hand
" I passed as I usually do on these, but the only thing I really can't stand is double. When partner has 4 hearts you can just never recover."
Rainer Herrmann
#16
Posted 2013-November-18, 15:15
rhm, on 2013-November-16, 03:16, said:
If this is responders hand I pass. I know this is a minority view.
I agree with Jdonn's comment on a different hand
" I passed as I usually do on these, but the only thing I really can't stand is double. When partner has 4 hearts you can just never recover."
Rainer Herrmann
It's different in precision, you get buried less often when partner has hearts (nothing horrible is going to happen), and you have far more hands that have no bid since you cannot really raise the minor. In standard this hand is no problem obviously since you can just raise partners minor. Passing with all 2353 2335 2344 hand types with 8-10 points is just going to lead to all pass too often when they have a 7 or 8 card fit and almost half the deck (where in standard, all of those hands could at least attempt to raise the minor). That seems like a disaster to me even though your LHO will often save you with a raise, your partner is rarely going to save you if LHO passes since he will rate to have length.
#17
Posted 2013-November-20, 00:36
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."