[Fluffy]

All the hands are Match Points.

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LHO leads ♦8, RHO plays the King.
EDITED: Thanks Ben.

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♠8 is lead

cash 3 spades or keep a spade entry to hand?

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LHO tanks a bit before bidding 4♥.

[inquiry]

Fluffy, on 2013-July-05, 18:38, said:

All the hands are Match Points.

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LHO leads ♦9, RHO plays the King.

You need to call the director as there are two Diamond NINES in the deck. So let's say LHO started with the ♦8. We have three diamonds, three spades, two clubs, and a heart for nine tricks in notrump, and if the club hook wins, 10 tricks. If we lose only two hearts, we might end up with 11 tricks without the club finesse. (two hearts, three spades, three diamonds, two clubs and a black card ruff in one hand or the other). What we don't want is some yahoo ruffing a diamond. So that favors heart Ace and a heart. The disadvantage of heart ace and a heart, is that they might be able to pull trumps (if hearts split 4-1 and the hand with four has the KQJx or East, behind dummy has four hearts to the HH9x (where H is k, q or J). If that happens, you are back to relying on the club finesse to make, when black suit ruff without them pulling trumps would ensure the contract.

So percentage wise you are worried about 4-1 split where KQJx are all in one hand, or East having KQ9x KJ9x or QJ9x behind dummy. Versus an diamond ruff in a short trump hand or someone overruffing in the short trump hand when you try to ruff a black suit card. The math seems complicated trying to figure out Short-short probabilities. so to be honest, at the table I would just duck a heart and not try to work out the various odds.

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♠8 is lead

cash 3 spades or keep a spade entry to hand?

Something has gone funky here. They have a ton of tricks and will crush us if the club finesse loses and they figure it out. But if I will win the first trick in dummy and run the club eight and it loses, I will not be able to come to 9 tricks even if they return a black card (6 clubs, and 2 spades). So I will indeed cash three spades, then run the club eight.

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LHO tanks a bit before bidding 4♥.

I like to double at matchpoints when there is a better than average chance we will defeat them. The problem here is I have two heart tricks, but where the other tricks are coming from is a little bit of a question. I would pass and lead -- I guess a diamond.

[Fluffy]

Ben your analysis is great as always but I would add that when RHO has a stiff heart honor ducking would lose a trick (if they don't crash)

[gszes]

hand 1----that opening lead and the dia k appearing is VERY god for us at MP
we do not have many entries to dummy and we would have exhausted them
repeating the dia finesse. Lay down the heart A immediately. Maybe a stiff

heart honor will fall from rho and we can lead toward the T twice. If nothing interesting
happens on the play of the ace follow with a low heart. This LOP will help keep dia
ruffs to a minimum and help any time rho has stiff K or Q or J of hearts.

Even if this LOP loses 3 hearts we may still play for the club finesse or either opp
having 5 spades and 5 clubs.



hand 2 need to assume club finesse is on and since it is MP might as well let it all
hang out and cash 3 spades since our "imaginative" bidding has landed us in
a zero or top situation anyway.



hand 3 just quietly lead a small dia. x with hands like this cause declarer to alter
their normal LOP in a way that frequently gains them a extra trick and takes away
most of the benefit of the X. Even worse sometimes that extra trick allows them
to make a game they would have lost otherwise.

[PhilKing]

Hand two:

If I cash three spades, I give the defence more chance to signal. Win the ace and run the ♣8. If it loses and they continue spades, we get out for one down and a reasonable board (3♣ may be one off and it's not impossible they make 3♥), if it wins, we still get a complete top.

Defence is hard, and they do not know we have seven clubs and a fourteen count. West will often be too scared to switch, even when his gut says it is right.

[Zelandakh]

Defence may be hard but once we drop the queen or king under the ace, the play and auction is simply screaming for a heart switch. The only players this is going to fool are complete beginners and unlucky experts.

[ArtK78]

Hand 1 - Normally I would duck a heart with this heart holding, but the diamond lead and play of the K are very suspicious. So I play A and another heart. If the hearts are 4-1 and they can cash 3 heart tricks, I have chances - club finesse, JT of spades coming down third or a black suit squeeze. And, of course, if the hearts are 4-1 on my left and there is a singleton honor on my right, my ♥10 in dummy will score.

Hand 2 - Defense may be hard, but there are limits. I can't believe that any defenders would not find their tricks after a first trick of SA in dummy, SQ from hand, and club finesse. I would cash 3 spade tricks and then finesse the club.

I suspect that 4♥ is not a common contract, so it will not be necessary to double it to get a good score. And I am not leading from either of my black suit kings, either. Diamond lead.

[Fluffy]

On hand 1 it didn't matter, LHO had ♥KQJx, but RHO had ♠Jxxx and ♣Qxxxx so all routes lead to 10 tricks.

On hand 2 ♣K was onside, there was at least 1 other player in 3NT.

On hand 3 4♥ undoubled went 3 down for +300 and 40% score, LHO had ♠Ax ♥xxx ♦KQJxxx ♣Jx, there are easy 9 tricks in NT (all aces with the diamonds) and no chance of a 10th, but I'll never know if he would correct or not.

[mikeh]

1. I duck a heart. I am aware there are holdings where this fails, but the example of a stiff H isn't one of them. Say I drop a honour. if it is on my left, RHO has HH9 left, and I have the same 3 trump losers I had when I ducked a trump early.

Say it is on my right: now I can lead towards the 10xx, but aren't I planning on ruffing a club? Unless I am lucky in how the hand lies, I won't be able to avoid LHO winning 3 trump tricks anyway. I am not playing A and another, when RHO plays an honour, since he might have falsecarded from KQJ9.


2. I take the 3 spades and advance the club 8. This is an all or nothing hand, since no competent pair would continue spades should the club lose, even if not playing some form of smith, or even if holding cards that make smith unreadable. For one thing, rho will have signalled a dislike of spades at trick one should I pop (and our play of the K/Q will clue almost all breathing LHO's into the situation.

3. I double most opps, but not ones known to me to be skilled. Few declarers start the play in a mp game by catering to a terrible trump break. But skilled declarers, alerted by the double, can usually save a trick.

If 4♥ is normal, then the decision to double should be made based solely on the likelihood of beating the contract mediated by the cost of giving away the bad break. Most mp opps won't be able to save a trick and there are even those whose play gets worse when doubled! I'm not factoring that into the equation.

If the field is in a heart partial, then my double rates to be immaterial.

If the field is in an alternate game, then the analysis is more complex since turning 620 into 790 is expensive if the field was 630.

If 3N makes 600, our decision is relevant only if the double allows opener to make.

if 3N fails, then we may need to double to protect our score, since 3N might be a disaster for them if partner stops diamonds and we can eventually cash a black suit.

My sense is that on balance double gains more often than it loses, with the caveat that against the Justins, Frances and Andy's (to name a handful, and there are others in BBF who I would also not double) I'd not alert them to my holding.

Edit: altho this was posted after Fluffy described the hands, it was being typed before then

[HeartA]

Hand 1: I vote for cashing ♥A.
Hand 2: I vote for cashing 3♠.
Hand 3: I vote for double and ♦ lead.

[rmnka447]

Hand #1 I'm ducking the first round of trump. It might be important to retain the A if trumps break 4-1.

Hand #2 I'm cashing 3 ♠ tricks, then taking the ♣ finesse. The opponents can score 5+ ♥ tricks when they get in, so I've got to take my 9 tricks quickly.

Hand #3 I'm passing. The opponents aren't in a good spot, so I don't want to give them the chance to find a better one if I DBL.

[mfa1010]

1.
A decent alternative is to cross to dummy on the ♣A and play a trump toward the hand. The plan is to duck if east plays 6 or 9, and to win, cash ♠AQ and play ♥, if east plays an honour. It backfires badly if east has specifically ♥KQJ9 and remembers to play an honour, but we give us the chance for 11 tricks on favourable layouts with trumps 4-1 and ♣Q onside.