barmar, on 2013-February-08, 11:36, said:
Trinidad, on 2013-February-08, 02:31, said:
So a consequence of the fact that we're only human is an "implicit agreement"?
No, it is a consequence of the lack of understanding of probability distributions by the AC who reasoned:
Trinidad, on 2013-February-08, 02:31, said:
They concluded from that reasoning that the probability that it was the first time must be extremely small (maybe even infinitesimally small).
And to be 100% clear: It is their reasoning, not mine. I don't support their reasoning at all. But it is a line of reasoning that was actually made (on many occasions) by some people with more bridge skills than me.
As an aside, I do agree with them that an implicit agreement exists if the same misbid has been made several times. And to be fair to the AC, the one misbid that they had to deal with more than any other was the Ghestem 3♣ misbid. In many of those cases partner passed the correction to 4♣ (which is evidence for an implicit agreement to me).
Rik