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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#941 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 10:17

View PostPhil, on 2012-November-07, 09:29, said:

What would be the point of that? Romney isn't a Republican leader. He won the primary of misfit toys.

Romney will be remembered (or not) as a footnote in the most divisive and expensive presidential election in history.

Romney and the President can defuse some of the anger of those who believed the misstatements made during the campaign by following through on the conciliatory statements that each made last night.

I was in the waiting room of our local hospital early this morning when a couple came in and, evidently, saw on TV for the first time that the president had been re-elected. The husband turned purple and shouted "How the hell did he pull that off?" As his wife tried to calm him (shush him up, really), he went on about how he couldn't live in a communist country, etc., etc. The guy was genuinely shocked (and very angry) that Obama had won.
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#942 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 10:22

View PostArtK78, on 2012-November-07, 09:15, said:

Unless I am missing something, Silver got all of the Senate races correct.


It looks like Silver got Montana wrong, and likely North Dakota?
(North Dakota?? I didn't even know Democrats had a chance there.)
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#943 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 10:47

View Postcherdano, on 2012-November-07, 10:22, said:

It looks like Silver got Montana wrong, and likely North Dakota?
(North Dakota?? I didn't even know Democrats had a chance there.)

Yes, Tester (D) won in Montana and Nate had him at 34%. Heitkamp (D) won in North Dakota and Nate had her at 8%. Sometimes the long shots come in. Neither is a pickup for the democrats, though, as they had held both seats going into the election. Looks like 55-45, assuming both independents caucus with the democrats.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#944 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 10:58

View PostPassedOut, on 2012-November-07, 10:47, said:

Yes, Tester (D) won in Montana and Nate had him at 34%. Heitkamp (D) won in North Dakota and Nate had her at 8%. Sometimes the long shots come in. Neither is a pickup for the democrats, though, as they had held both seats going into the election. Looks like 55-45, assuming both independents caucus with the democrats.

I tried to find out the results and compare them to Silver's picks, but it is amazing how little info is out there. The Montana and North Dakota races were not even mentioned in the articles I looked up.

Sorry for the errors.
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#945 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 11:04

View PostArtK78, on 2012-November-07, 10:58, said:

I tried to find out the results and compare them to Silver's picks, but it is amazing how little info is out there. The Montana and North Dakota races were not even mentioned in the articles I looked up.

Sorry for the errors.

Very understandable. Those races weren't called until this morning, quite recently.
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The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#946 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 11:09

Donald Trump Freaks Out on Twitter After Obama Wins Election

Quote

He lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country!

He'll hire someone to do his fighting...
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#947 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 12:05

View PostPassedOut, on 2012-November-07, 10:17, said:

Romney and the President can defuse some of the anger of those who believed the misstatements made during the campaign by following through on the conciliatory statements that each made last night.

I was in the waiting room of our local hospital early this morning when a couple came in and, evidently, saw on TV for the first time that the president had been re-elected. The husband turned purple and shouted "How the hell did he pull that off?" As his wife tried to calm him (shush him up, really), he went on about how he couldn't live in a communist country, etc., etc. The guy was genuinely shocked (and very angry) that Obama had won.


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#948 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 12:16

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-06, 16:35, said:

For me, the issue is not whether a belief arises from a religious conviction. If someone opposes capital punishment I don't all that much care if this is because he thinks it goes against the teachings of Jesus, or against the teachings of Moses, or is simply morally wrong without any reference to theology.

What worries me is when the opinion is not their own, they're just parroting the religious party line.

We didn't elect the Pope. I don't want our legislators changing laws if he publishes a new religious doctrine.

Quote

Rather the question is whether a great many opinions are simply non-negotiable. Over the last four years, Republicans made in clear in both word and action that their first priority was to make Obama a one term president. As far as I know, this position did not derive from Biblical teachings, but it made them really difficult to work with.

It's a somewhat tricky business. We respect people of principle. But we also have to negotiate to get things done. Religious belief could interfere with that, but really you do not have to be religious to be intransigent.

So bottom line: If a person comes with a large set of very detailed principles that are beyond negotiation, we might well want to look elsewhere.

Of course, there are other reasons to object to these people beside being religious fundamentalists.

#949 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 13:17

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-06, 16:35, said:

For me, the issue is not whether a belief arises from a religious conviction. If someone opposes capital punishment I don't all that much care if this is because he thinks it goes against the teachings of Jesus, or against the teachings of Moses, or is simply morally wrong without any reference to theology. Rather the question is whether a great many opinions are simply non-negotiable.

Religion adds some extra beliefs, things like creationism. When those of religious conviction try to force those beliefs on us (or our children), for me it becomes a problem of religious conviction. Sure, I would object to teaching creationism even if those behind the advocacy were doing so for scientific reasons, but no one has yet found scientific support for creationism; some opinions cannot be separated from religion.
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#950 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 14:07

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-07, 06:33, said:

I went to bed around midnight and watched the victory speech this morning. I have not always been a fan of Obama's speeches but this was a fine, generous, optimistic speech. I believe it will go down in history for its strength and, quite possibly, its influence. I highly recommend watching it in its entirety.


This is scary stuff for the rest of us:

"And together with your help and God’s grace we will continue our journey forward and remind the world just why it is that we live in the greatest nation on Earth."

To me this is unbelievably arrogant.
Wayne Burrows

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#951 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 14:46

I guess I am a little surprised this sounds offensive. Do other leaders, after they have won election as president or prime minister, say something like "Gee, thanks. Of course you can't expect much from me, and my country is really second rate, but I do thank you"?

It seemed to me an enthusiastic speech, but I really do not think I would be offended if I were from another country. I can't say for sure, of course, but I doubt it.
Ken
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#952 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 15:08

View PostCascade, on 2012-November-07, 14:07, said:

This is scary stuff for the rest of us:

"And together with your help and God’s grace we will continue our journey forward and remind the world just why it is that we live in the greatest nation on Earth."

To me this is unbelievably arrogant.

I always assumed every countries leaders called their own country the greatest. Perhaps your perception is biased by the uncomfortable belief that this may be a little more true here than for most other leaders.
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#953 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 15:11

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-07, 14:46, said:

I guess I am a little surprised this sounds offensive. Do other leaders, after they have won election as president or prime minister, say something like "Gee, thanks. Of course you can't expect much from me, and my country is really second rate, but I do thank you"?

It seemed to me an enthusiastic speech, but I really do not think I would be offended if I were from another country. I can't say for sure, of course, but I doubt it.



Don't get me wrong but I think there are a lot of good things about Obama.

However he didn't just say that he believed that his country was the best in the world. He said "we will ... remind the world ...". Yes I think this is offensive. I think there are many people in the world, including some in the US, who do not think that the US has such a good foreign policy. I imagine there are millions of people who live in fear of those policies. I doubt that these people would be impressed to know that the US President wants to remind them that the US is the greatest country in the world.

He could say a whole lot of positive things, and he did, without rubbing into the rest of the world how great he thinks the US is. I don't think I have ever heard a leader from another country make such a claim.

I think it is particularly insensitive when many people live in real fear of US led or supported miltary offensives.
Wayne Burrows

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#954 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 15:14

View Postdwar0123, on 2012-November-07, 15:08, said:

I always assumed every countries leaders called their own country the greatest. Perhaps your perception is biased by the uncomfortable belief that this may be a little more true here than for most other leaders.


lol
Wayne Burrows

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#955 User is offline   Scarabin 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 15:35

Cascade has an interesting point. I was not offended by Obama's acceptance speech but then I like America and find Obama, if anything, overly sensitive to outsiders feelings.

That said I must admit to feeling saturated by the election coverage and found myself thinking wryly "this is what you want to export to the Middle East".

By the way, if you say I should just watch other countries' news, I did, it does not help.
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#956 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 15:43

View PostCascade, on 2012-November-07, 15:11, said:

Don't get me wrong but I think there are a lot of good things about Obama.

However he didn't just say that he believed that his country was the best in the world. He said "we will ... remind the world ...". Yes I think this is offensive. I think there are many people in the world, including some in the US, who do not think that the US has such a good foreign policy. I imagine there are millions of people who live in fear of those policies. I doubt that these people would be impressed to know that the US President wants to remind them that the US is the greatest country in the world.

He could say a whole lot of positive things, and he did, without rubbing into the rest of the world how great he thinks the US is. I don't think I have ever heard a leader from another country make such a claim.

I think it is particularly insensitive when many people live in real fear of US led or supported miltary offensives.


Here's the thing...

Part of being President means following silly little rituals like insisting that America is the greatest country the world has ever known.
Yes, its ridiculous. How this is what the hoi poi demand, and if you don't follow their silly little rituals you don't win Ohio.

So, feel free to vent, but please recognize that it doesn't amount to a hill of beans...
Alderaan delenda est
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#957 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 15:46

Wayne it seems to me you are reading into it something that isn't there. But to each his own. If anything I would think it's more offensive that he said "By God's grace" than the part you are offended by (to which what Richard just said in the last post also applies anyway).
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#958 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 16:04

View Posthrothgar, on 2012-November-07, 15:43, said:

Here's the thing...

Part of being President means following silly little rituals like insisting that America is the greatest country the world has ever known.
Yes, its ridiculous. How this is what the hoi poi demand, and if you don't follow their silly little rituals you don't win Ohio.

So, feel free to vent, but please recognize that it doesn't amount to a hill of beans...


Seems a pity if this is really the game you have to play to get the job of President.
Wayne Burrows

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#959 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 16:07

If I wanted to pick a bit, perhaps it would have been wherte he was speaking of the kid who might want to be a scientist or, even, a president\. Hoe about wanting to be a president or, even, a scientist?

More seriously, he did work in something about American Exceptionalism. I would have expected that to be more grating than "greatest country in the world' which I think, agreeing with Richard here, is just the blah blah politicians must say. Exceptionalism always, for me, carries some message that we are exampt frm consequences of our foolishness. The Lord watches over us. That sort of thing. If all that is meant is that we are the greatest country in the world, just like all the other greatest countries in the world, then ok, But it comes across differently to me and I much prefer we drop it.


But for me, this is a quibble. I though he laid out some visions, laid out some problems, and spoke to some real beliefs that I do hold. My fathr did come here with nothing, really nothing. If you have nothing, this seems to be a place people like to come. And it often seems to work out pretty well for them. That doesn't mean we have to go on about exceptionalism, but there is something to be said for recognizing a good thing when we see it.


The guy had a tough campaign. Let him enthuse a bit.
Ken
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#960 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 16:07

View PostCascade, on 2012-November-07, 16:04, said:

Seems a pity if this is really the game you have to play to get the job of President.


Seems a pity that we all don't get free ponies...

More seriously, look at Luke Warm's posts regarding American exceptionalism.
There are plenty of people in the US who agree with him.

If they can be bought off with some meaningless platitudes, politicians are going to do so (even if it means cheesing off some random Kiwi)
Alderaan delenda est
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