[lalldonn]

hrothgar, on 2012-November-01, 04:38, said:

300.4 is just the mean...
The mode (the most likely event) looks to be about 331 which would be a real drubbing...

(This number could be depressed a bit if/when Obama loses PA)

I noticed that too, 331 was at 17%. None of Romney's winning electoral totals had higher than a 3% chance of occurring.

[ArtK78]

lalldonn, on 2012-November-01, 08:49, said:

I noticed that too, 331 was at 17%. None of Romney's winning electoral totals had higher than a 3% chance of occurring.

I suspect that 331 would require that Obama wins Florida.

[luke warm]

i just wanna see VA go romney by 5+%, then i'll know if i should stay up or not... if less, or even if he loses, it's night night time for me

[ArtK78]

luke warm, on 2012-November-01, 11:55, said:

i just wanna see VA go romney by 5+%, then i'll know if i should stay up or not... if less, or even if he loses, it's night night time for me

Nate Silver has Obama's chances of winning Virginia at 61%. The three most recent Virginia polls (Tuesday and Wednesday) have Obama ahead in Virginia by 2% or 3%.

[PassedOut]

luke warm, on 2012-November-01, 11:55, said:

i just wanna see VA go romney by 5+%, then i'll know if i should stay up or not... if less, or even if he loses, it's night night time for me

I know that I'll stay up until it's called either way (unless it's Bush/Gore all over again).

[luke warm]

i figure if romney wins VA by 5+, it'll be a landslide... if he loses, he'll have to do something else the next 4 years... if he wins by 2 or 3, it's too tight for me to stay up and miss out on my much needed sleep

[y66]

Bloomberg Endorses Obama, Citing Climate Change ♥

[Vampyr]

luke warm, on 2012-November-01, 15:20, said:

i figure if romney wins VA by 5+, it'll be a landslide... if he loses, he'll have to do something else the next 4 years... if he wins by 2 or 3, it's too tight for me to stay up and miss out on my much needed sleep

Too tight to stay up? That is an odd idea.

[Bbradley62]

Vampyr, on 2012-November-01, 18:19, said:

Too tight to stay up? That is an odd idea.

Just like 2000 was too tight to stay up... We may not know the result on Tuesday...

[cherdano]

Matt Yglesias ‏@mattyglesias

Quote

As I understand it, Obama is either ahead or behind depending on whether the polls are accurate or not.

[luke warm]

Vampyr, on 2012-November-01, 18:19, said:

Too tight to stay up? That is an odd idea.

if he wins VA by 2%, ohio won't come in for 3 weeks... just how long do you want me to stay up?

[ArtK78]

Nate Silver updated his election odds late last night. Obama now has an 80.9% chance of winning. His chance of winning Ohio has increased to 80%, and his chance of winning Virginia is up to 66%. He even has a 45% chance of winning Florida.

[hrothgar]

Bbradley62, on 2012-November-01, 20:00, said:

Just like 2000 was too tight to stay up... We may not know the result on Tuesday...

I'm taking Wednesday off work...

[PassedOut]

ArtK78, on 2012-November-02, 05:21, said:

Nate Silver updated his election odds late last night. Obama now has an 80.9% chance of winning.

That's still one chance in five for Romney, so very possible even now.

[kenberg]

Somehow the question of who will be president for the next four years has taken a back seat to whether Nate Silver is a good forecaster. Probabilistic forecasting is difficult to evaluate, and surely neither Silver nor his model should be judged on the basis of one result. But of course Silver does now and has before predicted the results in a state by state way and that gives us far more data to look at.


There is the old joke that a weatherman who lives in an area that has rain on 30% of the days could simply predict a 30% chance of rain everyday and guess what, we would find that indeed it has rained on 30% of the days that he had said the chance of rain is 30%. Whatta guy.

It's easier to compare forecasters than to assign a specific rating to any one by himself. If A says that the chance of rain is 30% and B says that it is 50% you take the average, 40%. Then you give odds of 60 (no rain) to 40(rain) and have them each (happily I presume) place a bet at these odds, either money or rating points, You watch over a period of item and see who rakes in the cash.,

This could be applied if there was another person publishing odds on each of the states, and the results could be compared. It's more difficult to compare two prognosticators if one is posting odds on the outcome and another is publishing polling results. If not apples and oranges, it is at least winesaps and galas.

Anyway, I suppose Obama is going to win. If I were inclined to do some political work, it would be in support of democratic reps and sens. We really cannot afford four more years of paralysis.

[mike777]

"An automatic recount can’t happen until Nov. 27, Husted said. An automatic recount is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008)."


We might not know the results until December.

[kenberg]

mike777, on 2012-November-02, 09:29, said:

"An automatic recount can't happen until Nov. 27, Husted said. An automatic recount is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008)."


We might not know the results until December.

I plan on staying up.

[Vampyr]

kenberg, on 2012-November-02, 10:48, said:

I plan on staying up.

Me too, and this will be very late indeed.

[mike777]

getting close to 100million bucks in ads in NC

I am flooded with phone calls every day and I have a private unlisted number and with mailings...

[luke warm]

mike777, on 2012-November-02, 11:06, said:

getting close to 100million bucks in ads in NC

I am flooded with phone calls every day and I have a private unlisted number and with mailings...

whose ads, mainly? i'd heard obama had pulled out of nc