[y66]

kenberg, on 2012-October-29, 09:20, said:

As to the war on objectivity, if someone somewhere has ideas about how to get people to stop the name calling, it would be good to hear from them.

I don't have any good ideas to get other people to stop the name calling. As for myself, I'm going to just cut it out.

[luke warm]

gallup is showing romney ahead 52-46 in the early voting, something nobody else is showing... and rasmussen has him projected to win 279 electoral votes

[dwar0123]

luke warm, on 2012-October-30, 11:05, said:

gallup is showing romney ahead 52-46 in the early voting, something nobody else is showing... and rasmussen has him projected to win 279 electoral votes

So I guess that means the odds favor him, lets place a wager. Heck, despite your quoted projections and polls, I will even give you even odds.

[kenberg]

luke warm, on 2012-October-30, 11:05, said:

gallup is showing romney ahead 52-46 in the early voting, something nobody else is showing... and rasmussen has him projected to win 279 electoral votes

It appears that I have to pay some money to read Rasmussen, am I right? Is it possible to list the states which Rasmussen projects for Romney and Silver projects for Obama? Of course some, Colorado and Virgina, are listed as fairly close calls by Silver, and perhaps they are listed as close calls by Rasmussen. Still, it would be interesting to see which states they differ on.

[Flem72]

TimG, on 2012-October-28, 09:24, said:

Silver doesn't claim that Obama is going to win by a 70:30 margin, he claims that there is a 70% chance that Obama is going to win.

I understand his approach. That 70% chance translates to a big advantage in Pollingese.

Here's another thing about the polling business. I suppose if a guy like Morris is just a tool, he will say anything he thinks he needs to. OTOH, don't any of these people -- and I have the same kinds of questions re: biased media folks -- value their reputations going forward? Or do they just figure no one will really remember and it'll all come out in the wash? From this point of view, by just making odds Silver really has it knocked.

[luke warm]

kenberg, on 2012-October-30, 12:34, said:

It appears that I have to pay some money to read Rasmussen, am I right? Is it possible to list the states which Rasmussen projects for Romney and Silver projects for Obama? Of course some, Colorado and Virgina, are listed as fairly close calls by Silver, and perhaps they are listed as close calls by Rasmussen. Still, it would be interesting to see which states they differ on.

found here for gallup looks like i was wrong, it's 52 - 45 rather than 52 - 46

Quote

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

still looking for a link i can send you on the other

here's another from gallup from 2008, showing (taking into account the 52-45 figure) that obama has lost 22% early voters from 2008 to 2012

Quote

These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer -- only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage.

one more for your amusement, from the weekly standard... the poll itself is supposed to be bipartisan

[Phil]

luke warm, on 2012-October-28, 11:55, said:

there are a lot of people on here i trust... Phil would work for mem if he's willing... i can paypal my funds to him, you do the same, he can then xfer it to the winner (taking out 10% for his fee, of course)... will that work? whatcha say Phil, you up for it?

Me? Thanks for the trust, but I'm sure others can handle it.

Jimmy is trustworthy - I think he recently let Hrothgar off of another bet if I am not mistaken.

If I bet him I would not have any concerns he'd welch.

[hrothgar]

Phil, on 2012-October-30, 13:58, said:

Me? Thanks for the trust, but I'm sure others can handle it.

Jimmy is trustworthy - I think he recently let Hrothgar off of another bet if I am not mistaken.

That he did, and for a not insignificant sum...

[luke warm]

Phil, on 2012-October-30, 13:58, said:

If I bet him I would not have any concerns he'd welch.

never have, never will

[mike777]

One week to go the President has a solid lead.

Obama: 237 - Romney: 206 - Toss-up: 95


http://www.rasmussen...t/election_2012


294---243


http://fivethirtyeig...gs.nytimes.com/



290-248

http://www.realclear...o_toss_ups.html
--

Fifteen percent of registered voters nationwide have already cast their ballots in this year's election, according to Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending Oct. 28. That is up sharply from 5% a week earlier. The overall percentage either having already voted or planning to vote before Election Day has also increased -- to 33%, from roughly 25% in each of the prior three weeks


http://www.gallup.co...st-ballots.aspx

[luke warm]

BunnyGo, on 2012-October-28, 07:25, said:

40-1 on Michigan 30-1 on Penn.

okay, we're down per our discussions... we'll figure out how to disburse the money later... i've already got mine spent, buying some more gold and silver

[kenberg]

I clicked on the Rasmussen poll from Mike's post. I was recently polled by phone by someone, and I love the questions. Here is one recult from Rasmussen:


64% Think Too Many Americans Dependent on Government Financial Aid
Only 64%???? Certainly I think that it is really too bad that a laid off worker with a family to support has to depend on food stamps for survival. I certainly favor giving food stamps to people who need them, but I also would strongly prefer that fewer people needed them. So I guess I think that too many Americans depend on government financial aid.


I am not, or at least not entirely, just trying to be cute here. On the phone poll that I took I was supposed to answer yes, no, or no opinion on a variety of questions which I thought were badly phrased. I think pollsters should offer the option "I think your question is idiotic".

[billw55]

Years ago a pollster called my home. I answered the first question with in a conservative/republican manner, and the pollster promptly hung up on me.

[Zelandakh]

kenberg, watching this clip might give you a little insight into why questions are sometimes (deliberately) badly drawn, esepcially during an election campaign.

[PassedOut]

luke warm, on 2012-October-31, 06:25, said:

okay, we're down per our discussions... we'll figure out how to disburse the money later... i've already got mine spent, buying some more gold and silver

And...

Quote

President Obama’s senior campaign adviser David Axelrod said Wednesday he’d shave his signature mustache if Obama loses Minnesota, Michigan or Pennsylvania to Mitt Romney.

[luke warm]

PassedOut, on 2012-October-31, 07:37, said:

And...

i don't want his moustach, but if he gives me 40:1 and 30:1 i'd like a shot at some of his money... or yours, for that matter

[lalldonn]

Nate has Obama up to 77.4% to win, his highest since October 7. 299-239 in electoral votes.

[luke warm]

i realize this is from the gop site but it's still pretty amazing, if true

Quote

In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%.

[kenberg]

Zelandakh, on 2012-October-31, 07:23, said:

kenberg, watching this clip might give you a little insight into why questions are sometimes (deliberately) badly drawn, esepcially during an election campaign.

I think it was in the old British comedy I'm All Right Jack where an M.P. was interviewed about Parliament's plans for dealing with a paralyzing strike. His reply was something like "We will take immediate and forceful action, and you can rest assured that we will not interfere'. The Brits have a knack for this sort of humor.


Yes, I like the clip.

[billw55]

Found an interesting voter quiz here.

Seems more in depth than most such quizzes.