[mgoetze]

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There were a few opportunities to defeat this contract, but declarer made in the end. Any blame to be assigned?

[AlexJonson]

Maybe West didn't rise with the queen of hearts. If not ... I'll think a biit further.

[mgoetze]

AlexJonson, on 2012-April-20, 13:54, said:

Maybe West didn't rise with the queen of hearts. If not ... I'll think a biit further.

Maybe you need to use the "Next" button.

[mike777]

Very hard hand, I know I would not do better at the table under time constraints.

No blame.

I hope the point is not to defend double dummy but with some clear points in mind.

[billw55]

mike777, on 2012-April-20, 14:01, said:

Very hard hand, I know I would not do better at the table under time restraints.

No blame.

I hope the point is not to defend double dummy but with some clear points in mind.

Yeah too tough for me at the table.

In theory though, west might be able to work out the full distribution and realize that (a) declarer still doesn't have nine tricks and (b) cashing the last diamond squeezes partner. Is this realistic to solve at the table?

[nigel_k]

There are opportunities for both players but I thibk the clearest one is for East to overtake the ♠10 to play a club. It's easier for East because he is looking at the jack and ten of clubs and needs to assume partner has the queen.

[quiddity]

I haven't thought it through but my instinct as East would be to play a club when in with the ♥9. He can foresee coming under some pressure and life will be easier once dummy is dead.

[paulg]

mike777, on 2012-April-20, 14:01, said:

Very hard hand, I know I would not do better at the table under time constraints.

No blame.

I hope the point is not to defend double dummy but with some clear points in mind.

Interestingly I put this hand into the match as a play problem, but both declarers failed the test. I didn't appreciate how precise the defence had to be when the declarers went wrong.

[AlexJonson]

mgoetze, on 2012-April-20, 13:57, said:

Maybe you need to use the "Next" button.

Excellent point! I'm impressed if this is too easy for the expert forum.

[Zelandakh]

Perhaps you could explain the signalling a little. East played 9 then 10 in diamonds with a doubleton - is this normal or a signal for clubs? Then East played ♥789 in a suit where partner cannot be interested in count (or attitude) - for me this would be a strong signal for clubs. And in spades East played the 7 (presumably upside-down count) followed by the 8 - this also looks like suit preference for clubs (albeit not yet readable). At the critical point (trick 9) West has a complete count on the hand and, if the signals are as they appear, it seems clear to play a low club. That said, I am doubtful I would find this against weaker opponents. Against an expert the ♦A looks very fishy and I think avoiding the suicide squeeze should now clearly be in one's thoughts.

[mgoetze]

Zelandakh, on 2012-April-23, 02:23, said:

East played 9 then 10 in diamonds with a doubleton - is this normal or a signal for clubs?

I didn't read anything into this because I would have thought playing the T on the first trick denies having the 9.

Quote

Then East played ♥789 in a suit where partner cannot be interested in count (or attitude) - for me this would be a strong signal for clubs.

I don't quite understand why ♥7 shouldn't be UD count at first.

[Zelandakh]

mgoetze, on 2012-April-23, 06:09, said:

I didn't read anything into this because I would have thought playing the T on the first trick denies having the 9.

Some play that you reverse the order with a doubleton so that when you lead to the second round it is clear you did not start with T9x.

mgoetze, on 2012-April-23, 06:09, said:

I don't quite understand why ♥7 shouldn't be UD count at first.

Partner played the Q, Dummy has AJT65 and we are looking at K987 - how important is count in this suit likely to be in comparison with some form of suit preference signal? Even if you feel the need to give count here I would think that 897 would be good enough for even without preference, with 789 even with clubs and 798 even with spade preference. I understand if carding agreements are not so detailed (this is I/A after all) but this is not a trivial problem and I think we need all the help we can get to solve it successfully.

I thought nigel made a good point too, that East can take the decision away from their partner by overtaking the ♠10. That is even more the case if the ♣2 was a positive attitude signal.

[pretzalz]

Taking it trick by trick.
1) I would probably have led a club, the unbid suit, but that seems slightly random.
4) I'm not sure I see the rationale for ducking the HJ. It gets declarer to play a 3rd round giving East 2 heart tricks, but this is illusory as East isn't in a position to cash them.
6/7) If this is IMPs it is hard to see how overtaking the DT is right. Slightly more sympathy at MPs. East will start clubs if he is allowed to hold the DT. Hard to see how this could be wrong once declarer pitches a club seeing as how JT5 is still intact.
8) East should overtake and shift to clubs.
9) West's 'error' here in cashing the diamond is due to 8.

[Tomi2]

for me ♠7 can be the clue, if its a hones ud count signal, then west knows about declarers weak spades and can open them

[mgoetze]

pretzalz, on 2012-April-23, 12:27, said:

6/7) If this is IMPs it is hard to see how overtaking the DT is right. Slightly more sympathy at MPs. East will start clubs if he is allowed to hold the DT. Hard to see how this could be wrong once declarer pitches a club seeing as how JT5 is still intact.

OK, but in fact I didn't know partner has ♣JT5 else I could have switched to clubs myself. Do you have a more single-dummy explanation why I shouldn't overtake the diamond?

[Fluffy]

wrong forum michael, not even close IMO. I can count with a single hand the times I saw the need to break a squeeze at the table. A guard defence? don't expecct to do it this decade.

[pretzalz]

mgoetze, on 2012-April-23, 15:15, said:

OK, but in fact I didn't know partner has ♣JT5 else I could have switched to clubs myself. Do you have a more single-dummy explanation why I shouldn't overtake the diamond?

Overtaking and continuing doesn't get you to 5 tricks. You have 2 tricks in the bag, an established winner, and presumably your entry.

You aren't unhappy at a spade switch with QTx in front of xx.

From your perspective a club switch from partner is safe from any holding as I think from the bidding declarer is marked with 4=2=4=3 so is left with only 2 clubs.

[mgoetze]

Fluffy, on 2012-April-23, 16:31, said:

wrong forum michael, not even close IMO. I can count with a single hand the times I saw the need to break a squeeze at the table. A guard defence? don't expecct to do it this decade.

I'll take that as "no blame for merely advanced players like me and my partner".

[pretzalz]

paulg, on 2012-April-20, 15:46, said:

Interestingly I put this hand into the match as a play problem, but both declarers failed the test. I didn't appreciate how precise the defence had to be when the declarers went wrong.

The test was it is cold if declarer just ducks the ♥Q? Cute. Amazing how long it took me to notice that since I was focusing on the defense.

[inquiry]

I assume ♦2 was 4th best, not "attitude". I will get to blame as we go along.

WAYS WEST CAN GO RIGHT

There are a number of places where ew could go "right"... but lets examine the hand from West's perspective. Some of which has nothing to do with a guard squeeze. West gets 5% for not leading a club. Then....

1) When partner wins the ♥9 and south shows out, the hand is essentially double dummy for him. South's 2NT rebid would typically be 18-19 HCP, so partner's king of hearts is about it for his defensive values, (if 18, partner can only have 4 hcp, if 19 partner will not even have a jack... and since we have 4 ladies, we know partner can't hold a queen even if declarer only has 17 which he did). So west can count 8 tricks for NS (2C, 2D, 2H, 2S). if south has both black jack (19 hcp), west will be enplayed into giving up the 9th trick after being throw in with the 3rd (or 4th round) and cashing diamonds. So what west really wants is partner to switch to a spade after winning a heart. How he does that depends upon what signalling he has available. Perhaps discarding the ♣6.

When west leads the diamond and south ducks, there is no harm. Now is the time for partner to shift to a spade. So it is totally WRONG to overtake the ♦8. If East happened to have a third a diamond, he can lead it now and south will not be able to throw west in with a diamond (after he ducked the 2nd round) and if south had four diamonds (and no black jack), you need the spade shift after the ♦Ten holds (mistake by declarer in that case -- partner will need 5♠ or the ♠9 and declarer tries the ♠J). IF you had discarded the ♣6 (lavinthal or odd/even first discard), I think partner will get the play here right and return a spade. But even a club would break up the double guard squeeze.

Having made the mistake of overtaking the diamond and clearing diamond, you have to re-evaluate when declarer ducks a spade to your ten (technically partner with J98 might overtake and turn to clubs, but we are examining this from WEST point of view). Let's assume that either the first or 2nd spade partner played was count, so we know declarer started with 4-2-4-3 and is down to 2S-0H-1D-2C. If he has KJ tight in spades he choose an odd line, but is going to make because your queen falls. So we give the jack of spades to partner. If he has KJ of clubs, again an odd line (why not throw a diamond on the third heart).

So if declarer's 18 hcp are ♠Kx ♥- ♦x ♣KJ if we exit with a club, declarer will cash his three black suit winners and throw us in with the ♦ as a stepping stone for the ♣A. What is we cash the ♦Q to avoid the steppingstone play? No guard squeeze will work if south has ♣KJ or KT of clubs (because the club holding is blocked). So West really has a problem. Did south only have 17 hcp for his 2nt jump rebid? And even if he did, he also not hold the ♣T. So at the point when west wins the ♠T, I would cash the ♦ and exit a spade, allowing the guard squeeze to work because I would not think that partner could have both black jacks here. So I can't blame him for cashing the last diamond

So west's best chance to go right is to duck the ♦Ten and i give him 60% blame for not ducking it (or of course, lead a club at trick one). That comes to 60% for West. Now to east.

WAYS EAST CAN GO RIGHT

Unlike West, east is more in the dark about the hands -- that is until about trick 8. His partner's ♦2 lead on this bidding is highly unexpected (south did open 1♦). Since partner is missing the ♦T9, it is fairly certain he has very good intermediate honors. When he plays the ♦T -- and if west underplays the ♦8, a spade shift seems clear. However, partner overtook, so the next time east play makes a difference is when declarer ducks a spade to partner's ten.

Here EAST is finally in control of enough info to know how to play. Partner had ♦QJ82, ♥Q2, and clearly something in spades. East expects his partner to have 8 to 9 hcp. Five or which he sees in the red suits. If partner had the ♠K, then south would have ♣KQ, ♦AK, ♠AQ but that holding, the play in spades makes absolutely no sense (playing spade to get to hand to lead a heart, not a club, ducking a spade here, and not taking a spade hook).

So declarer must have ♠AK, and can't have the ♠Q because then ducking again makes no sense. So declarer is ♠AKx(x) ♥xx ♦AKxx ♣K?x(x). If declarer has the ♣Q he has nine tricks (2s, 2h, 2d, 3c).. he would need 44 in the minors for the nine tricks, but then again he would never throw a club from kqxx. So we can assume partner has both black queens, and declarer started off 4-2-4-3. While partner can't see the pending guard squeeze, EAST can surely see that he alone protect against the 4th spade, and against hearts, and that with our ♣JT what will happen on another round of diamonds. He can break this squeeze up all by himself, by simply overtaking the ♠Ten and exiting a spade. Exiting a club would work too after overtaking. Asking partner to work this out when you can see it clearly at trick eight is a bit much.

So east best chance to go right is to overtake the ♠Ten and continue a black suit. East was in possession of sufficient info to get the defense right here and to protect his partner, so I give him 75% of the "blame".

That comes to 5% no club lead, 60% for not ducking the diamond Ten, and 75% for not overtaking the spade ten. That comes to 140% (65% to 75%)... but with East having the most blame. This might seem unfair, as west had more chances to get it right, but east's mistake was the "easiest" to avoid.

WAYS SOUTH CAN GO RIGHT

South has an easy make, he can afford to lose 2♥ as long has he keeps sufficient entries to dummy. He only needs to protect his entries to dummy to get his needed heart tricks. Duck the first heart, with both heart and club entry still in dummy, all is well.