[kgr]

Partner opens 1NT (15-17) and RHO passes.
You have 4=4=4=1.
What is the probably that you'll have a fit in a major? I was told by a good player that this is more then 50%.

At MP's you have 7 HCP and 4=4=4=1 after partner opens 1NT. What will you do?

[mikeh]

At matchpoints, it seems clear to stayman, intending to drop the 2♦ response.

This approach will almost always be a clear winner when partner has a 4 (or 5!) card major, and will often break even or be a winner when he has 4 (or 5!)diamonds, and probably be a loser otherwise.

Since mps is a game about frequency of win rather than size of win, and the odds are in favour of his having at least 4 cards in one of our suits, it seems clear to bid.

Btw, I wouldn't invite game if he shows a major...I have already 'won' the board (compared to those who passed) and don't want to risk giving the board back.

Imps is a somewhat different issue, since with 7 hcp we stand a reasonable chance of making 1N even if it is an inferior contract compared to one of our suits......and we run a serious risk that a 4-3 or perhaps 4-2 ♦ partial will be failing.....partner holds 3=3=2=5 with chunky clubs and xx in diamonds and we have found the only minus score available to us. I would pass 1N at imps...tho would bid 2♣ with a weaker hand.

[Bbradley62]

kgr, on 2011-September-07, 09:46, said:

What is the probably that you'll have a fit in a major? I was told by a good player that this is more then 50%.

My crude calculation says that the probability is 51%, but this is certainly dependent on your partnership's definition of a 1NT opening...

[JLOGIC]

I think even beginners are taught to stayman with 4441 mike, it is the classic garbage stayman shape though I would prefer 3451. So I doubt you have won the board against many people by staymaning. I would just try to make the percentage action if we find a fit, depending on my hand this would be to invite game or bid game, or possibly pass with a bunch of queens and jacks.

kgr: I have heard it's something like 55 %, but it depends on how often you open 1N with a 5 card major, with 5422 shapes, and with 6322 shapes with a 6 card minor. I think it is over 50 % with any normal style. But playing diamonds will often be a winner over playing NT anyways, so you should factor that in. It's not like just because you have 7 HCP playing 1N will beat playing a 4-4 or 5-4 diamond fit when you have a ruffing value/stiff, especially since they will often lead that suit vs NT and set up a lot of winners.

You could make a case for correcting 2D to 2H if your majors were extremely strong and you had exactly 7, something like QJT9 KJT9 xxxx x I would bid 2H because I would expect playing a 4-3 major fit to be quite good given the solidity of those suits, but thats a pretty contrived example and in real life I have never done this.

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2011-September-07, 13:53, said:

You could make a case for correcting 2D to 2H if your majors were extremely strong and you had exactly 7, something like QJT9 KJT9 xxxx x I would bid 2H because I would expect playing a 4-3 major fit to be quite good given the solidity of those suits, but thats a pretty contrived example and in real life I have never done this.

If you do this, you want to play the garbage stayman method where 1N-2♣-2♦-2♥ partner ALWAYS bids 2♠ when holding 3 spades and 2 hearts.

[Crunch3nt]

"If you do this, you want to play the garbage stayman method where 1N-2♣-2♦-2♥ partner ALWAYS bids 2♠ when holding 3 spades and 2 hearts."

We all play correcting with 3-2 down here in New Zealand. Garbage stayman is so popular here primarily because we all used to play weak NT.

I read years ago the odds were as high as 60% that partner had a 4 card major but a good player whose maths I would trust didn't believe me when I told him that and he did his own analysis recently and he got 58%

[JLOGIC]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-September-07, 14:11, said:

If you do this, you want to play the garbage stayman method where 1N-2♣-2♦-2♥ partner ALWAYS bids 2♠ when holding 3 spades and 2 hearts.

obv

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2011-September-07, 14:45, said:

obv

Obv to you and any decent player that's given this serious thought, but not everybody plays this.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-September-07, 14:11, said:

If you do this, you want to play the garbage stayman method where 1N-2♣-2♦-2♥ partner ALWAYS bids 2♠ when holding 3 spades and 2 hearts.

Slight correction/addition :
Partner ALWAYS bids 2♠ when holding 3-3 or 3 Sp and 2 hts.

Because Garbage Stayman is also played by Responder holding a weak 5s/4h.

With a weak 4s/5h, Responder just transfers to Hts and forgets about Sp.

[JLOGIC]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-September-07, 16:02, said:

Obv to you and any decent player that's given this serious thought, but not everybody plays this.

" Advanced and Expert-Class Bridge"

[semeai]

kgr, on 2011-September-07, 09:46, said:

What is the probably that you'll have a fit in a major? I was told by a good player that this is more then 50%.

Bbradley62, on 2011-September-07, 12:22, said:

My crude calculation says that the probability is 51%, but this is certainly dependent on your partnership's definition of a 1NT opening...

JLOGIC, on 2011-September-07, 13:53, said:

kgr: I have heard it's something like 55 %, but it depends on how often you open 1N with a 5 card major, with 5422 shapes, and with 6322 shapes with a 6 card minor. I think it is over 50 % with any normal style.

Crunch3nt, on 2011-September-07, 14:28, said:

I read years ago the odds were as high as 60% that partner had a 4 card major but a good player whose maths I would trust didn't believe me when I told him that and he did his own analysis recently and he got 58%

This is probably better suited to a simulation, but I tried it analytically but ignoring the confounding factor of hcp.

If you open any balanced hand including 5M332 and neither 5m422 nor 6m322, I get 56.9%.

If you open with any balanced hand including 5M332 plus any 5m422 and any 6m322, I get 53.2%

If you open any balanced hand except never 5M-332 (and also neither 5m422 nor 6m322), I get 51.3%.

If you open any balanced hand except never 5M-332 but do open all 5m422 and all 6m322, I get 48.4%

(Before posting, I double checked and found I'd left off 3-3-4-3. I think I've used every distribution now, though.)

[Siegmund]

I came up with close to 57%, opening all balanced and semibalanced hands 1NT, when I did a sim of it a year or so ago.

The case for Staymaning is even stronger at IMPs than at MP, too - getting to even a shaky 4-3 diamond fit may cost you 10 or 30 points, but save you from some big sets.

At any rate, not a remotely close decision with any of 4441, 3451, 4351, or 3361 shape. When you have a doubleton club, its only clear with a weak hand; with 7 or 8 points you gain some by Staymaning but do better by retreating to 2NT if you get stuck in a 7-card fit than playing the 4-3.

[Free]

At first glance, it seems rather very probable you have a good chance of a fit.
- 4333 x 4 => 2 without M fit (50% fit)
- 4432 x 12 => 2 without M fit (83% fit)
- 5332 x 12 => 6 without M fit (50% fit)

Combined it gives us 64.29%* chance of a M fit (when 5M332 in range is always opened 1NT).

Some extras:
- adding 5m422's will increase the percentage slightly (4 out of 6 holdings with M fit)
- adding 6m322's will decrease the percentage significantly (0 out of 12 holdings with M fit). I'm sure not all of these are opened 1NT, so the difference will be smaller.
- adding 4441's will increase the percentage significantly (4 out of 4 holdings with M fit)

(*) Given the fact that partner's average number of ♣s will be higher than the other suits, the percentage will drop a little, but I'm quite confident it won't drop below 50%.

kgr, on 2011-September-07, 09:46, said:

At MP's you have 7 HCP and 4=4=4=1 after partner opens 1NT. What will you do?

Definitely Stayman, if partner has a M fit you might invite depending on honor location, if partner doesn't have a M fit we still have a decent chance of having a ♦ fit.

[Cyberyeti]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2011-September-07, 17:06, said:

Slight correction/addition :
Partner ALWAYS bids 2♠ when holding 3-3 or 3 Sp and 2 hts.

Because Garbage Stayman is also played by Responder holding a weak 5s/4h.

With a weak 4s/5h, Responder just transfers to Hts and forgets about Sp.

Err, no, with 5♠/4♥ he bids 2♣-2♦-2♠.

These are 2 different approaches.

Mine is better because in the 45 opposite 42 case I find the fit.

Quote

" Advanced and Expert-Class Bridge"

Yeah, but some advanced don't play garbage statman at all, so have never thought about it.

[Free]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-September-08, 02:37, said:

Err, no, with 5♠/4♥ he bids 2♣-2♦-2♠.

These are 2 different approaches.

Mine is better because in the 45 opposite 42 case I find the fit.

2♣-2♦-2♠ is used for invitational hands with 5♠ these days, not for garbage stayman. Your approach may be better when you hold the weak hand with 5♥-4♠, but invites with 5♠ are much more common plus it gives you extra space for other hand types (1NT-2♥-2♠-2NT is now free). So I wouldn't claim your approach is better in general because 1 little case is handled better.

[mich-b]

I think the chances of the 1NT opener having a 4 card major are high enough , so that Stayman is generally correct even with 4432.

[Cyberyeti]

Free, on 2011-September-08, 02:54, said:

2♣-2♦-2♠ is used for invitational hands with 5♠ these days, not for garbage stayman. Your approach may be better when you hold the weak hand with 5♥-4♠, but invites with 5♠ are much more common plus it gives you extra space for other hand types (1NT-2♥-2♠-2NT is now free). So I wouldn't claim your approach is better in general because 1 little case is handled better.

Not in the UK it isn't very often, first time I've ever heard of that. So if you play that, how does opener know whether to play 2♠ or 2N if he wants to decline the invite ? (or is it specifically 5332 ?)

[Free]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-September-08, 03:58, said:

Not in the UK it isn't very often, first time I've ever heard of that. So if you play that, how does opener know whether to play 2♠ or 2N if he wants to decline the invite ? (or is it specifically 5332 ?)

With a 3 card suit he can obviously pass, with Ax/Kx/Qx it depends on the hand, with xx he'll bid 2NT. After that, responder can still bid a second suit if he has 5-5 for example - which is something you can't do if you transfer and bid 2NT to invite.

[Cyberyeti]

Free, on 2011-September-08, 05:53, said:

With a 3 card suit he can obviously pass, with Ax/Kx/Qx it depends on the hand, with xx he'll bid 2NT. After that, responder can still bid a second suit if he has 5-5 for example - which is something you can't do if you transfer and bid 2NT to invite.

We transfer and any minimum bid now is not GF, we can play in 3♠, so an invitational 5♠/4 or 5♣ can transfer and bid clubs.

It seems that all you lose by playing this as garbage stayman is playing in 2♠ rather than 3 with a 5-3 or good 5-2 fit when opener is minimum and has no heart fit.

Playing a weak no trump myself, I find the garbage stayman more useful.

[rhm]

mikeh, on 2011-September-07, 10:13, said:

At matchpoints, it seems clear to stayman, intending to drop the 2♦ response.
Imps is a somewhat different issue, since with 7 hcp we stand a reasonable chance of making 1N even if it is an inferior contract compared to one of our suits......and we run a serious risk that a 4-3 or perhaps 4-2 ♦ partial will be failing.....partner holds 3=3=2=5 with chunky clubs and xx in diamonds and we have found the only minus score available to us. I would pass 1N at imps...tho would bid 2♣ with a weaker hand.

This seems to me strange advice.
First holding 4441 and a reasonable 7 HCP, if partner has a 4 card major, chances for game are not negligible.
But even if we do not invite over a major suit response, bidding 2♣ will show a net profit of more than 1 IMP per board on average, whether vulnerable or not.
The case at IMPs for bidding 2♣ is at least as strong as at pairs.
Of course you may go down if you bid 2♣ finding no fit, but how likely is that even in a 4-3 fit and you having a singleton albeit with the length in the trump suit?
I think your chances making your contract are not that terrible even in the worst case that you will have to play a 4-2 fit in 2♦, though one would of course prefer to stay in 1NT in this particular case.
But all these adverse scenarios have to be balanced against incurring a minus score at 1NT.
It is not true that 1NT is foolproof.
For a given combined point-count the number of tricks vary more at notrumps than at suit contracts.
Of course you are a favorite to make 1NT when you have the balance of points, but you will go down a fair number of times in spite of your preponderance of strength.
A quick simulation showed that 1NT was down 20% of the time (1000 deals), roughly as frequent as making 3NT with this strength. Average number of tricks was 7.5
Even if you would make 1NT slightly more often than 80% single dummy, I doubt that you would incur a negative score that often bidding 2♣.

A reasonable analysis when to run from 1NT can be found at http://taigabridge.n.../dd/garbage.htm

Rainer Herrmann