Quote
I've had bad experiences with weak 4333's after partner opens a weak NT, but it wasn't like we could do much better using another method
Try passing you will see.
I know from your previous posts you have experience in weak Nt and understand what is really happening, so im rather convinced that if you think about it a little more you will see that passing with a broke 4333 is clearly superior to XX. The frequency isnt that great so i agree its not a priority but if you play 12-14 at all vulnerability and you have experience in weak nt defense and continuations I think my post is worth a quick look.
First of all how many pts your pass show 5+ ? 6+ ? both have drawbacks
if your passing with 5+ it mean that partner cannot business XX with a maximum and cannot X a 2M runout = almost pointless to play that pass guarantee pts unless its for scaring noob that will run with 5 pts.
If your passing with 6+ it mean that you forced yourself to scramble with some hands that 1Ntx has a shot or will be -1 or that west is going to pull. Not perfect.
Assuming your pass show 6+ (because 5+ is pointless) I dont have experience with passing show pts so maybe im missing something big, if so please tell me.
Does
1Nt-(X)-p-(P)
xx -(P)-P-(p)
happen ? My guess is not even once a year.
What about
1Nt-(X)-p-(P)
xx -(run)-P-(or run)
and you X them for -2
Its possible.
does
1Nt-(X)-P-(run)
X
and (wiggle or not) go -2 ? Very rarely is my guess.
(remember if south has pts and X them it doesnt count since ill be able to get them too at my table, only its when south pass showing pts permit north to X that its really a gain for your side)
So its pretty clear that the advantage of pass always showing pts is very minimal.
Now for the upside of passing with a broke 4333.
As West I would pass all 5 count, pass most 4 count and also pass and pray with a 4333 3hcp (do you ?)
I escape without a scratch when the opps pts are
20-3
19-3
19-4 /sometimes so lets divided by 2
18-4/divided by 2
so these hands you are almost in the -500/-300 territory while im going to be defending a partscore that can possibly still go down.
Also all the hands where I save 200 pts.
(4333) vs (4333) chance of reaching a 4-4 fit are 25% and even if you get the fit its possible 1Ntx score the same than 2Y doubled (the best is if they simply dont X you)
but when your playing a 43 fit with no ruffing power it doesnt yield half a trick better than 1Nt. So more than 1/2 you blow a trick by being 2y instead of 1Ntx
4432 vs 4333 less than 50% your going to have a 4/4 fit and more often than not your not going to find it. You will always play in the bad 43 fit (no ruff with short trumps side) so some small loss here too.
(4333) vs 5332 you should always be able to play undoubled or 5-3 fit but at a cost of missing 8 card fit in other situation. My guess is that you XX a 2C doubled to show the 3 OS so it mean you cannot used 2H/2D to show 5/4
A bit complex but here are the sequences
5242 vs 3433 1Nt (X)-XX-(P)-2C-(X)- you have to bid 2D here without showing wich suit is longer since you have to keep the xx for a (4333) i would play in S
4252 vs 3433 1Nt (X)-XX-(P)-2C-(X)-2D here you cannot show wich suit is longer since you have to keep the xx for a (4333) i would play in D
Its a bit more complex than this since is you have a 3=3=3=4 the chance of reaching a 44 clubs fit is clerly better that if you 4=3=3=3
As for 54 you should XX if your broke the best fit can save a neat 200, if your in the making zone they wont probably X 2C helping you find the best fit but if they do the difference between 53 and 43 fit is huge. Pressure is important but not as important as reaching the best contract in close making/going down situation. Again this is very obvious for me.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."