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Once in a lifetime?

#1 User is offline   JLOL 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 09:20

I was looking over the hand records from a club game and it had deep finesse analysis of how many tricks each side can make in each denomination fromm each declarer. If you cannot make 7+ tricks in a denomination it just leaves i blank. Anyways there was a hand where no declarer can make anything...literally. Par on the hand is passout.

Anyways I was just wondering if I was right in how unlikely this is, it seemed super unlikely like a once in a lifetime thing. Am I overestimating the improbability of this? Can anyone smart come up with an estimate of how likely this is or is that too difficult?
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#2 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 09:24

I didn't find any par zero deals among the first 10,000 deals in the GIB DD database. Gerben once posted a link to a website that gave some examples.
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#3 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 09:39

I once saw a hand on the hand record where on double dummy play and defense, NS make 9 tricks in all five strains. Somehow that seems to me even less likely, but who the heck knows.

BTW can you post that hand? There was a thread like 2 weeks ago where someone asked if that very occurence was possible.
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#4 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 10:52

helene_t, on Feb 5 2009, 10:24 AM, said:

I didn't find any par zero deals among the first 10,000 deals in the GIB DD database. Gerben once posted a link to a website that gave some examples.

That's not even a year's worth of bridge for Justin.
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#5 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 11:04

Try here for some examples:

http://bridge.thomas.../deals/parzero/
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#6 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 11:42

First one on that site depends on the lead. Granted, the lead seems obvious.....
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

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#7 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 13:06

I have seen many deals at club games where no one seems to make anything. Of course, that might be based on less than deep finesse declaring.
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#8 User is offline   nickf 

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Posted 2009-February-05, 15:17

1) I am sure Richard Pavlicek has constructed many such deals.

2) Having the little DF box blank doesnt always mean no contract is makeable. On old machines, and with complex hands (usually flat part scores where the HCP are evenly distributed), the DMPro analyser can take literally hours to find the makeable contracts. There's a keyboard option for the operator to skip the analysis on that hand, thereby leaving the analysis blank.

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#9 User is offline   thomaso 

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Posted 2014-January-15, 18:01

View Postvuroth, on 2009-February-05, 11:42, said:

First one on that site depends on the lead. Granted, the lead seems obvious.....


It's not clear what you mean by that. Nobody is asking for a deal where no contract makes on any lead. We are talking about double dummy results.

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#10 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-January-15, 18:34

Pavlicek had a lot of research on this, he looked for years for a hand where everyone made 1 of a suit, which is much harder, every possible lead had to give away a trick double dummy. He finally found one.

Funniest for me still is the one where every player makes 3NT.
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#11 User is offline   thomaso 

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Posted 2014-January-15, 18:42

View PostFluffy, on 2014-January-15, 18:34, said:

Pavlicek had a lot of research on this, he looked for years for a hand where everyone made 1 of a suit, which is much harder, every possible lead had to give away a trick double dummy. He finally found one.

Funniest for me still is the one where every player makes 3NT.


To be more accurate, he looked for a hand where all seats can make 1 of the same suit.

And here is the deal I found which satisfies this condition. In this deal, every seat makes 1N, 1S, and 1H.
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#12 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-January-16, 03:31

A deal where every seat can make exactly one of any denomination would be particularly special.
(-: Zel :-)
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#13 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2014-January-16, 03:41

View Postnickf, on 2009-February-05, 15:17, said:

1) I am sure Richard Pavlicek has constructed many such deals.

2) Having the little DF box blank doesnt always mean no contract is makeable. On old machines, and with complex hands (usually flat part scores where the HCP are evenly distributed), the DMPro analyser can take literally hours to find the makeable contracts. There's a keyboard option for the operator to skip the analysis on that hand, thereby leaving the analysis blank.

nickf
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Also the settings on DF matter. Sometimes it only looks at cases where the putative declaring side have a majority of trumps, some proportion of the HCP etc. I tend to trust only DF analyses which give a number for the tricks each player can make in each denomination.

With different settings I have seen boxes that are inaccurately blank.
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#14 User is offline   thomaso 

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Posted 2014-January-19, 12:57

I have a personal database of 6,000,000 deals, of which 15 are par zero, which puts, in this sample, the probability at 1 in 400,000.
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#15 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2014-January-21, 10:52

View Postthomaso, on 2014-January-19, 12:57, said:

I have a personal database of 6,000,000 deals, of which 15 are par zero, which puts, in this sample, the probability at 1 in 400,000.

i.e., about 1.25 times in a lifetime (assuming you play half a million hands in that life of yours).

Of course, the confidence interval on the sample (assuming each hand is independent) is 0.60 to 1.89, so who are we to say it is not indeed once in a lifetime?
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#16 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2014-January-22, 13:44

View Postthomaso, on 2014-January-19, 12:57, said:

I have a personal database of 6,000,000 deals, of which 15 are par zero, which puts, in this sample, the probability at 1 in 400,000.



How are hands added to your database? Randomly generated or self-selected in some way?
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#17 User is offline   thomaso 

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Posted 2014-January-22, 15:29

View PostCSGibson, on 2014-January-22, 13:44, said:

How are hands added to your database? Randomly generated or self-selected in some way?


Entirely randomly - no filter applied.
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#18 User is offline   thomaso 

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Posted 2014-January-22, 19:38

The only parzero deal in my sample with a 9-card fit or better:


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#19 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-January-23, 07:21

I'll bet a coke this hand was not passed out at the table.
(-: Zel :-)
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#20 User is offline   Lord Molyb 

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Posted 2014-January-23, 18:09

View PostZelandakh, on 2014-January-23, 07:21, said:

I'll bet a coke this hand was not passed out at the table.

that reminds me of a hand in which the par result was E/W playing 4X-1 in their seven card fit when they have a side 9 card fit and a combined 16ish points
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