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High level pre-emptive guesswork

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2025-July-02, 01:12



A rather extreme hand in a robot tourney
Any hints on how to evaluate and pick the right contract

And irrespective of the system I was playing, any good technniques and systems to navigate?
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#2 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2025-July-02, 01:48

6H

Should be odds on, this leaves some room for p to have some wastage.

With regards to system: 4NT is quite often used as SI showing bid in this kind of seq.,
what it would mean in this specific seq. is anybodys guess, ... and no, it is not RKCB.

I would take the seq. 4NT followed by 5H as stronger than a direct 5H bid, and I would
take a jumpt to 5H as quantitative slam invite.

What you should not bid is 5C.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#3 User is online   WasWinM 

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Posted 2025-July-02, 07:51

6h. You don’t want to introduce possible confusion at this point so bid what you might can make.
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#4 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2025-July-02, 16:02

Thx, I could not work out any possible way to explore so did just bid 6H

I considered 5 clubs - what would go wrong with that :)
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#5 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2025-July-02, 23:52

View Postthepossum, on 2025-July-02, 16:02, said:

Thx, I could not work out any possible way to explore so did just bid 6H

I considered 5 clubs - what would go wrong with that :)


The issue with 5C: The bid asks a question, asking p to bid his longest suit.
... assuming you play with a human, not a bot.
But you know the suit, you want to play.
If he bids his longest suit, you never will be able to get back to hearts.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#6 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted Yesterday, 04:09

Thx, so not because it was a control giving away a lead. I wasn't sure of the meaning exactly

It did make an almost lay down 7 but most just found 6+1 for 50%.
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#7 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted Yesterday, 07:05

View Postthepossum, on 2025-July-03, 04:09, said:

Thx, so not because it was a control giving away a lead. I wasn't sure of the meaning exactly

It did make an almost lay down 7 but most just found 6+1 for 50%.


I have given you my meaning / interpretation, ..., ask someone else, and he may give you
a different one. And this someone may well be better. Ask the robots, and all bets are off.

And for sure 7 is quite likely odds on, ... you could also gamble 7.
But than, I dont know the odds, but if 6 makes, you basically need 75+% for the grand,
and the usual answer is, try not to loose the board on this one.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#8 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted Yesterday, 11:07

What do people think this auction means?:

3-X-4-5
P-5-P-6

Is it this hand or is it a raise to 6 looking for/showing something in hearts for the grand ?
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted Yesterday, 11:14

View PostCyberyeti, on 2025-July-03, 11:07, said:

What do people think this auction means?:

3-X-4-5
P-5-P-6

Is it this hand or is it a raise to 6 looking for/showing something in hearts for the grand ?

Never had it and don’t expect to have it but, imo, logic says the 5C bidder has a slam force in hearts with extras. Clearly, imo, looking for grand.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#10 User is offline   wuudturner 

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Posted Yesterday, 16:50

Partner doubled a club preempt. Conclusion? Partner has at least some heart support. You are under pressure from their bidding. Do you really, really, really want to end up in a 4-4 diamond fit, given the potential for bad breaks after the preempt and raise? And possibly, partner might even have only 3 card diamond support. A club cue bid will never convince partner you have this hand.

A good rule to remember for this type of hand is "Giraffes play best in the long suit." A giraffe is a hand with one long suit, at least 7 cards, and a side 4 card suit.

This is the kind of situation where people try to finesse it, wanting to find the perfect, magical contract. DON'T BOTHER. You already know where you want to play this, and how high. just bid 6♡. You will never be able to learn if partner has maybe the spade ace, and the right diamond controls so you can find a grand. And you could never hope to learn that if partner is a bot, or a pickup partner. Even playing with partners who I have played with for 30 plus years at the highest levels, we would just bid 6♡ here.
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#11 User is online   mike777 

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Posted Yesterday, 17:21

Live a little

Bid seven

MP just one hand.
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#12 User is online   jillybean 

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Posted Yesterday, 17:47

View Postmike777, on 2025-July-03, 17:21, said:

Live a little

Bid seven

MP just one hand.

We should play more often
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
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#13 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted Today, 01:14

View Postmike777, on 2025-July-03, 17:21, said:

Live a little

Bid seven

MP just one hand.


I would usually seriously consider it but was 12th hand in a 16 hand reward toruney and was going well. So 50% with the crowd it was :)
I realise it could have scored me a few more BB cents :lol: I can't exaactly give you the payoff matrix but you stand to gain less than you lose if going well :)
One person scored 100% and sadly one poor person scored 0% - you can never underestimate your hand playing with GiB
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