[mike777]

teamgame, unfavorable vul.

Void...K54....KJ9852...AK95

1NT-p-4D-?

4D=hearts

If you pass or double then:
1NT-P-4D-P
4H-P-P-?

Your decisions and why?

[smerriman]

Pass? I expect partner to have nothing so can't see an alternative; hopefully they lead a spade and that's enough to beat it.

[mikeh]

I would put the chance of a spade lead at about the same chance of my winning the Miss Universe contest next year. Unless, of course, partner is void in the suit we’ve told him to lead.

But I’m passing anyway. There’s a reasonable chance I have a natural heart trick and good chances of 2 club tricks and we just need one more somewhere.

Meanwhile, bidding 4N might hit a home run when partner has something like 4=1=2=6, say jxxx x Qx Jxxxxx

Bitter experience has persuaded me to leave heroic bids to the opps.

Passing wins whenever 4H fails or when 5m goes for 500 or 800 (give partner J10xxxx xx xx xxx and we’re playing 5C for a huge number)

[mike777]

Would you pass or double immediately over the 4D transfer?

[smerriman]

OK, I'm clearly missing something obvious - why does us passing twice tell partner not to lead a spade? And what suit have we told them to lead instead?

To me, partner is almost certain to be broke with spade length; your 4-1-2-6 with the opponents hiding a 9 card spade fit isn't on my radar. They might be considering a singleton diamond lead, but our lack of double of 4♦ should sway them away from that. So I would have expected that a spade lead would be not just possible, but likely.

[mikeh]

smerriman, on 2025-June-20, 16:56, said:

OK, I'm clearly missing something obvious - why does us passing twice tell partner not to lead a spade? And what suit have we told them to lead instead?

To me, partner is almost certain to be broke with spade length; your 4-1-2-6 with the opponents hiding a 9 card spade fit isn't on my radar. They might be considering a singleton diamond lead, but our lack of double of 4♦ should sway them away from that. So I would have expected that a spade lead would be not just possible, but likely.

Weird. When I read the problem I thought I saw a double of 4D. Clearly I didn’t. Even weirder, I read the problem waiting to get my eyes checked, lol

[WasWinM]

I do not double 4D. why discourage a spade lead for a lead that may blow a trick?

[mikeh]

WasWinM, on 2025-June-21, 15:04, said:

I do not double 4D. why discourage a spade lead for a lead that may blow a trick?

Because you might be cold for a game?

Admittedly unlikely since partner probably has 6+ spades…RHO is unlikely to hold 4S but could be 4=7=0=2 as an example, with opener 5=3=2=3.

RHO could definitely be out stealing, but the double of 4D almost surely won’t get partner bidding….ok…6=0=4=3 maybe. And it’s extremely dangerous to double then bid 4 N (usually correctly interpreted as minors with diamonds two cards longer than clubs…..with more equal minors, one bids. 5C).

OTOH, a pass of 4D is unlikely to get us a spade lead and even if he guesses to lead spades, we still haven't beaten 4H yet.

[smerriman]

mikeh, on 2025-June-21, 15:22, said:

OTOH, a pass of 4D is unlikely to get us a spade lead and even if he guesses to lead spades, we still haven't beaten 4H yet.

OK, I thought we were on the same page after your last post, but apparently not. Why is partner unlikely to lead a spade?

And how did you go from "just needing one more trick somewhere" in your first post to suggesting doubling 4♦ in the hope partner will bid a diamond game because we might not beat 4♥ starting with a ruff?

[mikeh]

smerriman, on 2025-June-21, 15:42, said:

OK, I thought we were on the same page after your last post, but apparently not. Why is partner unlikely to lead a spade?

And how did you go from "just needing one more trick somewhere" in your first post to suggesting doubling 4♦ in the hope partner will bid a diamond game because we might not beat 4♥ starting with a ruff?

He has three suits from which he will lead….anything but a heart. Which he leads depends on his holdings and it’s very strange for anyone to claim that they can predict one suit or another. These days, few players lead aggressively on leads where the auction neither points to a lead nor suggests that aggression is required…as in a power auction to a game or slam, where we can infer that they’re making on passive defence.

1N p 4D p 4H p p p is far from a power auction, especially at imps (where blasting game rather than inviting is a common approach) at ev3n more so a this vulnerability. Literally any 7 card heart suit should, imo, bid game….unless too strong, lol.

While his inferred spade length may make the suit attractive, that depends on his exact holding and his holdings in the other suits. My guessestimate is that he’ll lead spades somewhat less than half the time and, of course, a first round spade ruff isn’t guaranteed to beat the contract.

As for doubling 4D in the (faint) hope of bidding a game, I have trouble understanding your point. If I doubled, as I would, I’d not then bid 4N, as I pointed out.

But tell me….in what universe would you want to avoid partner bidding 5D with, say, a weak 6=0=5=2 hand? Is he likely to hold that? No, he’s extremely unlikely to hold that but it’s trivial to construct a layout where both 4H and 5D make. Picture partner with Jxxxxx void Qxxxx xx. Heck, we might make slam! And we’re not beating 4H.

Sure, doubling may cost a tempo, since he won’t lead spades very often now, nor will he lead clubs…but bridge is a game of probabilities rather than certainties. And it’s unlikely to cost a trick….although the tempo could result in our losing a winner later.

[mike777]

Thanks for the comments, I made all the wrong decisions on this one.

I unfortunately passed 4D, and then doubled 4H.
Partner lead a Trump. 4H was cold on any lead.

Thank you posters for taking the time to explain your thought process. Very helpful

Other table doubled 4D and then rebid 4NT.
Found successful sacrifice.

Fortunately we still won this second match.

[smerriman]

 mikeh, on 2025-June-21, 16:45, said:

He has three suits from which he will lead….anything but a heart.

But knows that we didn't double. This doesn't *guarantee* he won't lead diamonds, but must surely reduce the chance of one being led significantly.

 mikeh, on 2025-June-21, 16:45, said:

Which he leads depends on his holdings and it’s very strange for anyone to claim that they can predict one suit or another.

Agreed. If we're ruling out heart and diamond leads (maybe incorrectly), and you think a spade will be led somewhat less than half the time, this would logically imply you are claiming he'll lead a club more than half the time. This would seem a very strange claim to make - why?

I must have the hypothesis wrong, so I guess you're saying there are a lot of hands where he'll lead a diamond even though he knew we could have doubled for the lead and didn't. Which also seems strange to me, but maybe you have an explanation for it.

 mikeh, on 2025-June-21, 16:45, said:

But tell me….in what universe would you want to avoid partner bidding 5D with, say, a weak 6=0=5=2 hand? Is he likely to hold that? No, he’s extremely unlikely to hold that but it’s trivial to construct a layout where both 4H and 5D make. Picture partner with Jxxxxx void Qxxxx xx. Heck, we might make slam! And we’re not beating 4H.

As you say, bridge is a game of probabilities, not a game of cherry-picking one example that works for you, as you've told others countless times in this forum.

Doubling gets you a swing in this extremely rare case (or if a diamond lead is crucial). Not doubling gets you a swing whenever we need the ruff and partner finds the spade lead. Even if you're right that a spade lead will occur somewhat less than half the time, it still seems to me the number of hands it does happen is more than enough to compensate for giving up on the minute chance of declaring.

[mikeh]

 smerriman, on 2025-June-21, 22:07, said:

But knows that we didn't double. This doesn't *guarantee* he won't lead diamonds, but must surely reduce the chance of one being led significantly.


Agreed. If we're ruling out heart and diamond leads (maybe incorrectly), and you think a spade will be led somewhat less than half the time, this would logically imply you are claiming he'll lead a club more than half the time. This would seem a very strange claim to make - why?

I must have the hypothesis wrong, so I guess you're saying there are a lot of hands where he'll lead a diamond even though he knew we could have doubled for the lead and didn't. Which also seems strange to me, but maybe you have an explanation for it.


As you say, bridge is a game of probabilities, not a game of cherry-picking one example that works for you, as you've told others countless times in this forum.

Doubling gets you a swing in this extremely rare case (or if a diamond lead is crucial). Not doubling gets you a swing whenever we need the ruff and partner finds the spade lead. Even if you're right that a spade lead will occur somewhat less than half the time, it still seems to me the number of hands it does happen is more than enough to compensate for giving up on the minute chance of declaring.

You use your judgement and I’ll use mine. But I had to laugh. Why the f**k do you think that my not doubling 4D rules out a diamond lead? You and I play very differently. I’m very happy with how I play.

[WasWinM]

My double of four diamonds is not to suggest a sacrifice (although on second thought that may be the best usage)
My double is to urge a diamond lead to prevent blowing a trick in another suit.

[smerriman]

mikeh, on 2025-June-21, 23:22, said:

You use your judgement and I’ll use mine. But I had to laugh. Why the f**k do you think that my not doubling 4D rules out a diamond lead? You and I play very differently. I’m very happy with how I play.

I didn't say it rules out a diamond lead. I said IF it rules out a diamond lead, and then went on to say you clearly think it doesn't, and asked why. Laughing and swearing at me doesn't help me learn.

If I'm trying to decide what to lead, and I have 2 or 3 equal looking options, and partner had a chance of doubling to suggest a lead and didn't, I choose one of the alternatives. Which is why I thought the chance of a diamond lead would decrease if I didn't double, thus increasing the chance of a lead I thought I wanted. Maybe you simply don't want a spade lead, or your double says nothing about a lead. I'm so confused

Edit - I created a thread on BW to try to get some more advice on expert treatments of the double.

[mw64ahw]

 mike777, on 2025-June-21, 18:42, said:

Thanks for the comments, I made all the wrong decisions on this one.

I unfortunately passed 4D, and then doubled 4H.
Partner lead a Trump. 4H was cold on any lead.

Thank you posters for taking the time to explain your thought process. Very helpful

Other table doubled 4D and then rebid 4NT.
Found successful sacrifice.

Fortunately we still won this second match.

Coming to this late.
My first thoughts were pass then X with 3 quick tricks, but checking on partners holdings (40-16-14-8) I doubt they have anything to contribute. So what now. 4.5 modified losers suggests the downside with a fit should be limited to two tricks opposite the ops. making game. As you point out X followed by 4N and a suit was a profitable sacrifice.