Posted 2024-November-24, 11:43
At mps I’d have sympathy for a pass. In fact, while I’m not sure I could bring myself to pass at the table, I suspect it would be the winning call more than half the time. But we’re not playing mps. We’re vulnerable at imps with a 10 count and that valuable diamond king.
It’s vanishingly unlikely that anyone will double 3N so we can discount fear of multiple doubled undertricks even on a bad day. So, while down 2 is possible, we’re looking at something close to the prototypical imp odds calculation….say 3D makes…heck let it make 10 tricks. Pass gets us 130. Bidding 3N gives us either 600 or -100….sometimes 200. Say -130 on average, for the sake of some symmetry, lol. If we make, we win 10 imps opposite a 3D contract at the other table. If we fail, we lose, on average, 260 or 7 imps.
So we don’t need to have a 50% chance of making for 3N to be, over an infinite number of plausible hands, the right call.
Also, I’m willing to bet that the great majority of good imp players bid here.
As for what….I don’t think it playable to rebid 4S as some kind of stall…either 6 spades, presumably looking for a raise, or 4 spades, no heart stopper. Opener will often have the ‘hoped for’ partial fit….is he supposed to bid a slow 3N with hearts stopped and 2 or 3 spades? And a fast 3N with no fit but a heart stopper? /sarcasm
Also, being somewhat old-fashioned, I’d play 3H as hearts. While I don’t think that opener can hold 4 hearts…..I used to, many years ago, when I believed in ‘strong’ reverses (anyone who’s read the primer on reverses pinned on this site will see that I described strong and weak reverses and, at that time, was a strong reverser). These days, if the hand is 4=6 and strong enough to bid 3D, I’ll bid 2H. Having said that, in my main partnership we have a completely non-standard 1D structure, which I’ll ignore for the purpose of this post. How would we bid QJxxx KJxxx x Ax?
In that partnership we have the explicit agreement that a bid of the 4th suit below 3N asks for a stopper, but we don’t have that when it’s the third suit. So I’m stuck with 3N.
Note that once in a while xxx will provide the heart ‘stopper’ that we need….so Ax xxx AQJxxx Ax gives us a chance. As for the diamond king being stiff, obviously we’d prefer Kx but I think fears of lack of communication are a bit overblown. Partner has 8-10 hcp outside of diamonds so rates to have entries. Plus even if his diamonds aren’t coming home, maybe our clubs will. xx AQx AJ10xxx Ax gives us lots of ways to make. And so on.
Of course, making up specific hands in order to assess odds is a fool’s game and I’m not pretending that I can make up more ‘good’ hands than bad. That’s neither my intent nor the point. The point is that there are many layouts on which 3N is anywhere from unlikely but worth bidding (due to the cost benefit analysis above) to basically cold…..xx Ax AQJ109x Axx and we simply can’t tell.
So….what does your gut tell you, given that your gut feeling is simply your unconscious mind telling you how your cumulative experience evaluates this situation, influenced by whether you’re innately a pessimist or an optimist? I’m a pessimist by nature, but I’m aware of that failing so I grit my teeth and bid 3N. Bridge, especially imps when vulnerable, is almost always won by optimists.
Edit: my main partner likes to say…you can die quickly or die slowly…..always opt for the quick death. He means, in situations like this, go for the aggressive move. You die, usually quickly as they run hearts….too bad. But if you hem and haw and eventually pass, you’ll die slowly when partner takes his 10 tricks and yiu see that 3N made.
Last edit: I reread Bridge Worlds periodically. A few months back I read a report on one of the big team championships…Spingold or Vanderbilt iirc. Both teams reached a vulnerable game. Both went -300. The commentator observed that 50 years ago the board would also likely be a push….passed out at both tables. When I rode motorcycles we had a saying. There are old bikers. There are bold bikers. There are no old, bold bikers. The converse is true in bridge….there are conservative bidders. There are winning bidders. There are no winning, conservative bidders.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari