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Which chances do you combine?

Poll: Which chances do you combine? (2 member(s) have cast votes)

Which elements would you include against expert opps?

  1. Finesse heart at trick 1 (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. Finesse heart later (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. Duck opening lead in both hands (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Endplay by throwing H on c (looser on looser) (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. "Marked" diamond finesse if both opps show even count (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. Ruff a diamond in dummy (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Dummy reversal (1 votes [50.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  8. Minor suit squeeze (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. Rounded suit squeeze (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  10. Red suit squeeze (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  11. Triple squeeze (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  12. Double squeeze with show-up in the common suit (diamonds) (1 votes [50.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  13. Duck second heart trick hoping for East to have Kx (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  14. Something else (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

What would you do differently if it was IMP?

  1. Finesse heart at at IMP but not at MP (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. Dummy reversal at MP but not at IMP (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. Endplay at IMP but not at MP (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Ruff diamond in dummy at MP but not at IMP (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. Something else (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. I would do the same at IMP as at MP (2 votes [100.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 100.00%

What would you do differently against LOLs and LOGs?

  1. I would trust LOLs/LOGs to give honest count, but not experts (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. I would trust experts to give honest count, but not LOLs/LOGs (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. LOLs/LOGs would be more likely to have lead away from a king (1 votes [50.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  4. LOLs/LOGs would be less likely to have lead away from a king (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. Something else (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. I would do the same as against experts (1 votes [50.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

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#1 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2023-November-26, 10:12

Matchpoints.
I am primarily interested in how you would play it against competent human opposition (and expert field).
3 lead (from any 3- or 4-card suit)

You need to combine a number of chances. Probably we all include the chance that J falls (unless having reason to finesse in the third diamond trick), but which other chances do we try to combine?

As it happened, there were at least two reasonable lines that would worked (other than the crystal ball diamond finesse).

I wanted also to ask how likely you think your plan is to give at least 12 tricks, but the maximum is three questions.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#2 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-November-26, 11:51

I may be using one of your suggestions, but one needs to be careful, in a manner not covered (explicitly…you may have intended it to be covered implicitly)

I had some problems posting as a spoiler so will post only a brief reply:

A dummy reversal requires trump to be 3-2. While ducking the heart in both hands may facilitate a squeeze, I’d play the queen since it’s barely possible it will hold and I think I have good chances if/when it’s covered…I duck, but don’t think it’s essential…if I won, I’d play the suit back.

The key is to unblock the heart Ace and tackle trump by winning the first round in hand, and the second on the board. You will need some luck in the minors, but if clubs are 5-2 then you can rethink. The basic idea is to ruff a heart early, then two clubs, but this requires that the hand with short clubs holds at least three diamonds (and not 5 unless he also holds the long trump).
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#3 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2023-November-26, 21:45

1. In an expert field, the more likely contract is 6NT played by North. This, a priori, is a >50% contract + on a heart opening lead it is 100%
So playing 6S in an expert field, I think playing the Q from dummy is best. If the Queen holds, one can play a squeeze line for the overtrick.

2. In any other field, I would be content with scoring the slam & not worry about the overtrick. Yes, a fair % of tables will declare in 6NT but then again a fair % will be in a 3NT/4S/6S. I don't know which of the various options is best but I would duck the first trick and then play on a squeeze line.

3. It makes no difference if one were facing honest count giving LOLs/LOGs. I think I would play the same way.


My Squeeze line:
Duck opening lead, win the (assumed) Heart continuation, draw trumps, top clubs then club ruff, cash final trump (if still with declarer).

The final trump is the 9th trick of the hand.

* If West began with 4+ cards in both minors, he will have to discard a diamond on this final trump. I throw dummy's club.
* If West began with King of Hearts & 4+ diamonds, he will have to discard a diamond to retain the HK.
* If East began with 4+ cards in both minors, we hope that he has the HK as well (triple squeeze)
* If nothing works so far, then maybe diamonds are 3-3 or the DJ is doubleton.
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#4 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2023-November-27, 13:37

View Postshyams, on 2023-November-26, 21:45, said:

1. In an expert field, the more likely contract is 6NT played by North. This, a priori, is a >50% contract + on a heart opening lead it is 100%
So playing 6S in an expert field, I think playing the Q from dummy is best. If the Queen holds, one can play a squeeze line for the overtrick.

2. In any other field, I would be content with scoring the slam & not worry about the overtrick. Yes, a fair % of tables will declare in 6NT but then again a fair % will be in a 3NT/4S/6S. I don't know which of the various options is best but I would duck the first trick and then play on a squeeze line.


Is there a situation in which playing Q might cost?
It might gain and looks no cost to me at first sight.
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#5 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2023-November-27, 18:35

Yes, if East has K, the queen may still give us the 12th trick on a squeeze or endplay.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#6 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-November-27, 19:52

There aren’t many squeeze layouts if east has the heart king, assuming that that he won’t play the king if we duck in dummy, but there are some. Void KJxx Jxxx Qxxxx s one…we duck his jack. Best return is probably a club…win in dummy, play 5 rounds of spades, pitching a club and a diamond. Cash the heart ace. 5 cards remain. We hold void void A9xx K. Dummy void Q KQ xx

RHO has to keep the heart king and Jxx of diamonds so has to pitch to a stiff club. We cash the club king, and dummy’s small club is good…east is in a three suit squeeze. When we cross o a diamond and cash the small club, he’s squeezed again.

However, this is extremely low percentage, so imo playing the heart queen at trick one is clear. Then I’d try for the dummy reversal, reverting to playing for a minor suit squeeze if trump are not 3-2.
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#7 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2023-November-28, 05:40



Thanks all.

I played Q at trick 1 and went for the dummy reversal which worked but afterwards I thought that maybe going for a minor suit squeeze would be better %age.

I think the red suit squeeze also works if I duck the opening lead in both hands, but I always find it difficult to figure that out, even DD.

The heart lead is weird, by the way.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#8 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-November-28, 09:42

I shouldn’t post late at night, lol. A red suit squeeze operates against east when he holds the heart King and 4+ diamonds

Simply duck the heart lead in both hands. Win the return, presumably a black suit. Draw trump and ruff a club (or pitch clubs on spades but ruffing is better in order to guess the distribution). You reduce to a 4 card ending of heart Queen in dummy along with the KQ10 of diamonds with A9xx of diamonds in hand. East is crushed.

If clubs were 4-3 you might play for either defender to be 4=4 minors….pull trump, ruff one club and cash your last spade, pitching the heart queen…coming down to void void KQ10 x opposite Void void A9xx void…neither defender can keep a club and four diamonds.

On the actual hand, when you ruff a club, you find out that the suit was 5=2 and that the long club had 3 trump and presumably at least 3 hearts, so you know that east has long diamonds.

Now cash the KQ of diamonds and run the 10…it’s a 100% line provided that west has 3+ hearts….which would seem clear from the lead and his later following to the Ace.
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#9 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2023-November-28, 12:32

I was wondering (without looking at all the hands) whether there could be a double squeeze on if the opening lead is ducked. I think it can only work if West has the king in which case rising with the queen would have worked.
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#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-November-28, 12:52

Both the dummy reversal and the squeeze work if you duck the opening lead.

You get to:


and can either ruff the heart high and overtake Q or play J to the ace and Q to the K squeezing E
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