[Cyberyeti]

mikeh, on 2023-February-03, 16:45, said:

This is especially true when holding two spades. While sometimes opener has extra length and/or if the opps are playing 4 card majors, they do have a good fit, most of the time it’s your partner sitting with many of the spades not held by opener. Would anyone be surprised to find partner with a 4333 weak hand?

Even if one scrambles to one’s best spot, and escapes the axe, -200 won’t score very well

If nobody were vulnerable, it might be worth taking a chance but red v white makes doubling extremely risky. Note that the risk of going for a big number is only part of the problem. You just may have no fit, and no place to play, even if 1N were about to be passed out.

The problem here is that if opener only has 4 spades, he has 15+ and this might not be unlikely, so you're outgunned with no guarantee of a fit. Also at that vul, opps are more likely to pull the trigger and go for the 200. They might get a lot more than that.

[thepossum]

Without reading the thread and spoilers I reckon I would bid 2C

Now to read the thread

[nullve]

Maybe you were lucky West didn't pass 1N:

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How should the auction have proceeded in that case?

[AL78]

nullve, on 2023-February-04, 10:30, said:

Maybe you were lucky West didn't pass 1N:

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How should the auction have proceeded in that case?

That is a worse situation, I have the same risk of partner bidding diamonds if I double as I did the first time so I guess I have to pass again.

[dokoko]

nullve, on 2023-February-04, 10:30, said:

Maybe you were lucky West didn't pass 1N:

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How should the auction have proceeded in that case?

That's why I would double in the South seat. Being a passed hand, partner will not play me for more. I agree double is risky, but pass is risky, too.

In my world the hand short in opp's suit should act.

[akwoo]

mikeh, on 2023-February-03, 16:45, said:

This is especially true when holding two spades. While sometimes opener has extra length and/or if the opps are playing 4 card majors, they do have a good fit, most of the time it’s your partner sitting with many of the spades not held by opener. Would anyone be surprised to find partner with a 4333 weak hand?

Even if one scrambles to one’s best spot, and escapes the axe, -200 won’t score very well

If nobody were vulnerable, it might be worth taking a chance but red v white makes doubling extremely risky. Note that the risk of going for a big number is only part of the problem. You just may have no fit, and no place to play, even if 1N were about to be passed out.

I think the cases where you are down 2 or more at wherever you end up - at the 2 level - are rare enough to disregard at MPs. (At MPs, I'm not going to worry specifically about the telephone number; all scores below -200 are basically equally bad.)

My experience is that most even very good players are not so good at doubling for down 1, +200, and a near top. (I did play for a while with a solid but not expert player whose strongest suit was doubling and scoring +200, so I know it can be done.) It's true that 'very good' for me means the folks who place in Regional Open Pairs, who are not quite as good on average as the folks who make the second day of a national event.

Think of it this way - everyone routinely balances against 1m-1M-2M with less, even when opps are playing weak NT and the 2M raise could be a 3 card raise on 16 balanced. It's true the the opps can't have the huge hand at this point and you're more likely to have a fit because they are more likely to have one, but the huge hand is basically the same as the big hand because all telephone numbers are equal (of course unless the whole field is going for a telephone number), and you're one level higher.

[mikeh]

I’m not sure but I expect that 1N was non forcing. If so, then on a lot of hands 1N is going to end the auction. Yes, I know what the hands were, but that’s a silly way to analyze.

They are not vulnerable. If they make 1N it’s -90. If partner pulls your double, and your side finds a seven trick contract, that’s -100.

So your focus on telephone numbers and, to a lesser degree, on -200 misses an important point. That’s why I referred to the vulnerability when I criticized the idea that west should double. You can avoid a double, avoid the dreaded 200 and still get a very bad score.

Fwiw, it’s not any auction that would happen in my partnerships…the west hand is an automatic minimum opening bid. 1D in one partnership, 1C in the other. We open virtually all 11 counts.

North overcalls 1S, east doubles and we end up in 4H.