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Sometimes fortune embarasses you

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2023-January-24, 00:05



Generally happy with my bidding and scores in a small MP tourney but this top was rather embarrassing to put it mildly

Can anyone explain the lead

I didn't feel too dishonest about my likely stop but ..... :)

I carefully and genuinely considered all options, checked all bid descriptions and felt ok about it

Whatever happened to the trusty old 4th highest - even if it thinks I have the King its not exactly giving much away is it?

EDIT With apologies to Gib and everyone else at the table (and the tourney) a mini-sim shows that if it thinks you have the King the diamond is a slightly better chance of almost having any chance at all of beating the contract. If it doesn't think you have the King it will lead a small club. Not a big difference though

I need to check my theory about best NT leads
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#2 User is offline   smerriman 

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Posted 2023-January-24, 01:08

View Postthepossum, on 2023-January-24, 00:05, said:

Whatever happened to the trusty old 4th highest - even if it thinks I have the King its not exactly giving much away is it?

Well, it can easily give away a trick that you weren't going to get in clubs?



It of course leads a club (Q, 4th best is too dangerous) at IMPs, where the club is the best chance of beating 3NT. But you're not expecting to be cashing all those clubs, and every trick is important at MPs in the more likely case that you're not beating it.
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#3 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2023-January-24, 02:15

I still don't get it. Simple little old me would have led a club

I know its very naive and elementary to just have one lead under my belt so have started leading middle or bottom of nothing from time to time, which appears to be the fashion EDIT I am not that limited. Sometimes I am lucky enough to have a good suit from which I can lead from the top

Because its apparently passive and safe and doesn't risk much

I have a very simple mind and I at least appear to have two possible entries back to my clubs

That's why I still regard myself as somewhere between beginner and intermediate I guess

Generally in very small tourneys I don't like attention being brought upon myself in this way

One of the other unfortunates may notice or may even have been watching. Scary

That dastardly Possum knows how to psych the bot. He doesn't actually
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