[Cyberyeti]

You are playing something fairly simple without serious/frivolous 3N (I accept this hand is trivial if you are playing this), and systemically you open 1♦ with this shape:

---

3N from partner over 3♠ would have been 4333 or just possibly 4324

the 4 level bids are cues, 1st or 2nd round control.

[mw64ahw]

Given 4♣ is a slam invite and North has shown their strength, why bother with 4♥ rather than going straight to a key card sequence. For me this would signal either a void (not likely here) or a weak Trump suit. On the back of that I bid 4♠ and take 4♥ as Last Train-ish

[DavidKok]

Was 3♠ GF? If not I think it is an underbid. Either way I think 4♥ is more descriptive.
Is the 4♥ bid last train?

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2022-February-11, 10:00, said:

Was 3♠ GF? If not I think it is an underbid. Either way I think 4♥ is more descriptive.
Is the 4♥ bid last train?

As stated in the op, the 4 level bids are cues, you ae not playing last train

Because you so want to be in game opposite xxxx, KQx, xx, Jxxx where 3 could easily be too many, it really isn't a great hand if partner only has 4 spades, a more reasonable KQxx, Qxx, xxx, xxx is very poor if they lead trumps and could easily not make 3.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

I guess 4C could be either the King, which would be great, or shortage,
which would be less so.
Nevertheless, partner starting the cue bidding seq. means I will proceed,
which means RKCB.

At tthe end of the day you have to go either low or high and if it does not
work out, that is the price for simple agreements.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[DavidKok]

Cyberyeti, on 2022-February-11, 10:15, said:

As stated in the op, the 4 level bids are cues, you ae not playing last train

Because you so want to be in game opposite xxxx, KQx, xx, Jxxx where 3 could easily be too many, it really isn't a great hand if partner only has 4 spades, a more reasonable KQxx, Qxx, xxx, xxx is very poor if they lead trumps and could easily not make 3.

Sorry, I missed the statement on cue bids. I am willing to accept getting too high with my splinter sometimes, giving partner a balanced hand with soft heart values is always going to be awkward. Also if 3 is too many we can never get this right. Bidding 3♠ caters to partner having a minimum and being able to take exactly 9 tricks. By bidding 4♥ on the second round partner will able to evaluate their hand properly, and will be able to judge whether the 5-level is safe, whether slam might be on or if we should stop in 4. We're at most a queen short on values, that's a reasonable tradeoff.

Anyway, on the auction shown 4♥ is an interesting bid. Partner seems to not have the values to bid beyond the 4-level. Fortunately we have extras, and I expect to be able to find partner's entire hand safely by bidding keycards now (if partner shows enough keycards we can ask for the trump queen and king of clubs). If partner has something awful like ♠Kxxxx, ♥KQxx, ♦xxx, ♣x we might just make 5♠ and I'd expect a lot more for a slam try opposite a limited game try.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2022-February-11, 11:06, said:

Sorry, I missed the statement on cue bids. I am willing to accept getting too high with my splinter sometimes, giving partner a balanced hand with soft heart values is always going to be awkward. Also if 3 is too many we can never get this right. Bidding 3♠ caters to partner having a minimum and being able to take exactly 9 tricks. By bidding 4♥ on the second round partner will able to evaluate their hand properly, and will be able to judge whether the 5-level is safe, whether slam might be on or if we should stop in 4. We're at most a queen short on values, that's a reasonable tradeoff.

Anyway, on the auction shown 4♥ is an interesting bid. Partner seems to not have the values to bid beyond the 4-level. Fortunately we have extras, and I expect to be able to find partner's entire hand safely by bidding keycards now (if partner shows enough keycards we can ask for the trump queen and king of clubs). If partner has something awful like ♠Kxxxx, ♥KQxx, ♦xxx, ♣x we might just make 5♠ and I'd expect a lot more for a slam try opposite a limited game try.

This hits on the point, you have the cards that partner cannot find out about. Partner as it happens DOES have the values to go beyond 4♠ but can see KC won't help.

The dangerous hand for partner is xxxxx, AKQJ, xx, KJ but in fact partner has AKQxx, Axxx, Jx, Kx and if he asks for aces you might bid 6 but not 7 playing simplish methods as you may not find out about the minor suit Qs.

4♥ over 1♠ was not in the frame as we play this as a void.

[DavidKok]

Cyberyeti, on 2022-February-11, 13:01, said:

The dangerous hand for partner is xxxxx, AKQJ, xx, KJ but in fact partner has AKQxx, Axxx, Jx, Kx and if he asks for aces you might bid 6 but not 7 playing simplish methods as you may not find out about the minor suit Qs.

Oh what a devilish hand, that wasn't on my radar at all! I guess we live in 5♠ if the spades break 2-2, or if we can trick an opponent, but most of the time that will be down one. If only we had splintered in hearts
As an aside, I think there should be room to find the minor suit queens even over keycard. I don't like keycard conventions very much, but the version I play has sufficiently thorough followups that we can almost always ask for third round support in specific suits.

Cyberyeti, on 2022-February-11, 13:01, said:

4♥ over 1♠ was not in the frame as we play this as a void.

Do you then play 3NT as a singleton-showing splinter? I'm happy to take the long route, but I think bidding a GF splinter is sensible regardless of the exact method.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2022-February-11, 13:57, said:

Do you then play 3NT as a singleton-showing splinter? I'm happy to take the long route, but I think bidding a GF splinter is sensible regardless of the exact method.

We play an artificial unbalanced 2N rebid where most of the singleton splinters go as long as you have 5+ in your first suit, a really big 4441 with support bids 3N and this is not big enough for us.

The problem is that you want to ask for all of ♦KQ and ♣Q, works much better if partner who holds all those cards asks for our cards which can be shown to keycard and then only one other card to show.

[DavidKok]

While true, I think there's some missing caveats. Responder cannot be certain that opener will bid 4NT over 4♥. Also, opposite responder's ♠AKQxx, ♥Axxx, ♦xx, ♣KJ it is quite enough if opener has ♠JTxx, ♥x, ♦AKxx, ♣Axxx - you don't actually need the minor suit queens to have 13 tricks on top (well, with spades splitting 3-1 or 2-2, and with the 9 in responder's hand you can take a 4-0 break as well).

In this case responder bid masterfully, in my opinion. Responder knows that opener will bid 4♦ over 4♣ (and if not there is no slam anyway), and if opener signs off with 4♠ over 4♥ nothing is lost and they can still bid on (presumably with 4NT). But there are many ways to bid this grand, and I think splintering on the second round (or on the second+third round artificially) might cater to more hands responder could have.

How would the auction have gone if opener held ♠JT9x, ♥x, ♦AQJx, ♣AQxx? Or if you add the ten or jack of clubs?

[Bad_Wolf]

I would rebid 3H, could be slightly weaker but avoids game on the crappy 43(42) types with wasted H.

[mikeh]

I think it a clear mistake to play 1D 1S 3H as game force.there’s no need.

Play it as invitational or better. This hand is a maximum invite or a minimum gf, but with 3H as invite+ stiff heart (4H is gf void), who cares?

As it is, since we’ve swung low with 3S, we cannot conceivably give up after partner, expecting us to usually hold a less suitable hand, has taken two cuebids!

As for inferring anything from his failure to use keycard, that suggests you use keycard far too often. Keycard is to be used ONLY when you can count enough to take 12 tricks but are worried about two quick losers OR when you are checking for grand.

Here, on the auction, if partner has Axx or the like in hearts he cannot possibly know that you have no heart losers. So his using keycard is almost certainly a mistake on many, many hands where slam or grand is good but keycard doesn’t tell him what he wants to know.

He surely has enough, having made two slam moves, for the 5 level to be reasonably safe, so I can bid 4N with some comfort.I’m the one who knows I have 7 minor suit winners and a heart ruff or two.

I am assuming that he won’t make his first cue in shortness.I think that a very good rule. Consider how difficult this hand is if you don’t know whether his 4C was shortness or the king.

I wrote this before seeing his hand

He’ll show 3 keys, I’ll ask for the Queen, he’ll show the queen and the club king.

Opposite a mundane AKQx Axx xxx Kxx I can count 13 tricks…if he has only Ax in hearts, and only 4 spades, we have a minor suit that is at least a 4-4 fit with at least AKQ, so odds on we have 13 then as well.

So 4N gets us trivially to grand….unless partner bids 4N!

Of course, over 3H, responder can afford to keycard because he’ll show us, via 4N, that we have all the keycards and north has enough to bid grand imo. But I wouldn’t keycard as responder anyway.

[Cyberyeti]

mikeh, on 2022-February-11, 16:26, said:

He surely has enough, having made two slam moves, for the 5 level to be reasonably safe, so I can bid 4N with some comfort.I’m the one who knows I have 7 minor suit winners and a heart ruff or two.

I am assuming that he won’t make his first cue in shortness.I think that a very good rule. Consider how difficult this hand is if you don’t know whether his 4C was shortness or the king.

I wrote this before seeing his hand

He’ll show 3 keys, I’ll ask for the Queen, he’ll show the queen and the club king.

Opposite a mundane AKQx Axx xxx Kxx I can count 13 tricks…if he has only Ax in hearts, and only 4 spades, we have a minor suit that is at least a 4-4 fit with at least AKQ, so odds on we have 13 then as well.

So 4N gets us trivially to grand….unless partner bids 4N!

Of course, over 3H, responder can afford to keycard because he’ll show us, via 4N, that we have all the keycards and north has enough to bid grand imo. But I wouldn’t keycard as responder anyway.

The bit I bolded was actually the point of me making the thread, IMO partner bidding 4♥ indicates a wish for them not to not keycard.

Also I'm interested most people evaluate this hand as better than I do.

[AL78]

Cyberyeti, on 2022-February-11, 13:01, said:

The dangerous hand for partner is xxxxx, AKQJ, xx, KJ but in fact partner has AKQxx, Axxx, Jx, Kx and if he asks for aces you might bid 6 but not 7 playing simplish methods as you may not find out about the minor suit Qs.

The probability of opponents holding AKQ between them when you have a nine card fit must be small.

[DavidKok]

Conditional on seeing your own hand and the auction thus far it is not more or less probable than any other honour distribution compatible with the bidding.

[AL78]

DavidKok, on 2022-February-12, 07:28, said:

Conditional on seeing your own hand and the auction thus far it is not more or less probable than any other honour distribution compatible with the bidding.

But missing AKQ is the worst case scenario, and my point is that this worst case scenario is very unlikely compared to all the other less worse cases together.

[mw64ahw]

Quote

Also I'm interested most people evaluate this hand as better than I do.

Both hands have an MLT of 5.5ish North shows theirs with the ♠ raise and South with 4♣, so are others really evaluating the hands better?

The 4♥ bid is interesting, and perhaps an ambiguous flag for North, which should become clearer if North bids 4♠ and South continues with key carding.

Playing an unbalanced ♦ I get to show the shape and short suit before trumps are set with 3♠. North is then in the position to count the 13 tricks after subsequent cue bidding/key carding and hope the trumps don't break badly.