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In need of confidence boost

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 04:11

Apologies to cyberyeti and anyone else who had already replied I was going to reframe

Trying to remember what I wrote. I had been doing better in MPs recently and occasionally try a slightly unusual bid, rather than the obvious to give an edge

Here is the hand which miraculously made 5H 100% for one other person. Sadly I made closer to the double dummy score (minus 2)

The obvious bid was 5C but I decided on 5H



I am curious whether it was a reasonable MP play, and how it should be played.

What I find interesting is that the player that made it played a very similar line, differing only on trick 3. And how hearts were played
But the only way to make depends on East's defence and how it plays trumps

etc

Sorry I lost my original post and what I wrote

Goodnight
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 04:20

4N is also vaguely plausible as 2 places to play at which point partner bids 5, although I'd bid 5.

You also didn't give yourself the best chance, many people don't give count in trumps (don't know about bots). Try playing a second round of trumps after the K. E will most likely think you have 4 hearts on the auction, so why would he duck which is what's required to beat the contract.
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#3 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 06:01

Hi sorry

Will repost. Curious not behaviour and I want to reframe 🙂

It's got a few issues. Tomorrow 🙂
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#4 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-December-19, 14:01

View PostCyberyeti, on 2021-December-19, 04:20, said:

4N is also vaguely plausible as 2 places to play at which point partner bids 5, although I'd bid 5.

You also didn't give yourself the best chance, many people don't give count in trumps (don't know about bots). Try playing a second round of trumps after the K. E will most likely think you have 4 hearts on the auction, so why would he duck which is what's required to beat the contract.


Thx Cyberyeti

Yes, I was curious how East played differently between my play and the 100% :)

Also if there was a trick or it related to genuine best play :)

I played my King on trick 3 and East ducked. the 100% played low to the QJ and East took with the Ace

All I think the hand really shows is to play the percentage game. But it can be fun to have more variance from time to time. One that got away :(

Curious statistical observation. My average doesn't seem to change much whatever I do :)
On a serious statistical note though. Maybe someone like Richard can advise. Does anyone even have an estimate how many hands and different types of tourneys and opponents I need to make any useful statistical inference at all

EDIT Apologies, in the mess around I posted the wrong hand (the 100%). I posted mine which was the original.

EDIT 2. Given that sadly this thread is already untidy I may start another one to ask about strategy for improving. I try to concentrate on hands that wen wrong - bidding or play - in order to increase my average. But they often, are hands like this, that could easily have worked. And if I try to exclude hands like this my average may drop
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