[AL78]

MPs. This is one I got wrong and almost everyone else got right, and is an example of a situation where I couldn't work out what the best play is based on the odds.

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♠9 led. What is your plan and how do you play at trick one?

[TylerE]

Duck around to the Q. If the queen wins, play QH, which sets up 11 tricks.

If E pops A!S at trick 1 you have your 9 tricks immediately, at worst, and again have 11 for the taking on any non S return

I'm assuming you flew the Q at trick. Only way that's right is if E has the J and W has led the 9 from something like AT9x, which would just be bizarre.

[Cyberyeti]

TylerE, on 2020-November-06, 16:22, said:

Duck around to the Q. If the queen wins, play QH, which sets up 11 tricks.

If E pops A!S at trick 1 you have your 9 tricks immediately, at worst, and again have 11 for the taking on any non S return

I'm assuming you flew the Q at trick. Only way that's right is if E has the J and W has led the 9 from something like AT9x, which would just be bizarre.

This is horribly wrong when E has 9x(x) and ♥A. Ducking in both hands also works if they're 5-2 with the A with the 2, if they're 4-3 at MPs it's more complicated.

[AL78]

I decided the lead was top of nothing or top of a doubleton. I tried to go through the layouts where going up with the king was right and ducking to the queen was right. Playing low from dummy works if RHO has the ♥A, because I have a second spade stop when they get in and I make easily with overtricks. It doesn't work if LHO holds the A♥ and I win with the queen, since he gets in and plays through my ♠Kx and I'm down. If I duck in dummy and RHO plays low and I duck in hand, he clears the suit and I have to hope LHO has the ♥A. If I play the king at trick one, RHO wins with the ace and clears the suit (I duck once), I again have to hope LHO has the ♥A, else I'm down.

If I duck in dummy then whether it is correct or not to win in hand or duck seems to depend again on who holds the ♥A.

I could not work out what the percentage line was, and it looked to me like a guess on who holds the ♥A, so I eventually took the latter line. Of course, it was RHO who held it and I went down.

I am wondering if I have missed something because 29 pairs played in 3NT with North as declarer and made it with one or two overtricks, ond only three Norths went down. A 29 to 3 ratio of success to failure suggests it wasn't a guess and I missed something which would have suggested the correct play was to duck in dummy and win in hand. What did I miss?

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I don't know how many Norths got a spade lead, if you don't get a spade lead 11 tricks are easy. Even better if you can get South to play it.

[mycroft]

What did you miss? If you duck the spade to the Q, then when you lose the heart A, your Kx is a stopper, because East never gets in. There's a chance that West may pop Ace and return, and you have two stoppers (not on this layout, of course, but there are others).

The losing layout for "duck to the queen" is if East has the ♥A, as Yeti said. There, the right line is to duck the first trick in both hands (or rise K, and if they win, take the second; if they let you win it, you have to lead another spade!) Of course, that line goes down on this layout. I think it's pretty much a coinflip who has the Ace.

But the "easy" play is "duck to the queen"; it's the one most of the people who got the spade lead would do - especially if they didn't think about the potential problems. So if you didn't do that, that, combined with the ones who didn't get the spade lead, would explain the poor score.

[Stephen Tu]

AL78, on 2020-November-06, 17:47, said:

I am wondering if I have missed something because 29 pairs played in 3NT with North as declarer and made it with one or two overtricks, ond only three Norths went down. A 29 to 3 ratio of success to failure suggests it wasn't a guess and I missed something which would have suggested the correct play was to duck in dummy and win in hand. What did I miss?

Poor score is probably a ton of players don't lead a spade. But the reason to perhaps play RHO for HA and win SQ is to figure out why LHO is leading from a short suit. If LHO had HA and long hearts, they are more likely to lead hearts, hoping partner has Kxx or something where they can duck once and eventually cash out the suit. They are more likely to try to find partner's major lacking the HA in my opinion.

Note it's probably best to post the hand with south as declarer and North as dummy, to avoid confusing people.

[mikeh]

I think you got unlucky, in that I doubt that many defenders would lead the spade 9. It’s not that I disagree with the lead, especially at imps (yes, I know it was mps). The auction suggests that west has 4 or more spades and virtually all the defensive strength. If a spade lead is needed, it pretty much has to be on the opening lead. The reason I say this is better at imps than mps is because, while I think it pretty clear that a spade lead offers the best chance of beating the contract, the spade lead also risks blowing a trick. Say opener held AQ10x with Kx in dummy. Left to his own devices, declarer may well hold himself to 3spade tricks.

As for coping with the lead,I think Stephen is spot on. The reason for the spade lead is a lack of strength, which strongly (but not infallibly) suggests that west has the heart Ace. In that case, declarer has to duck in dummy, and win in hand. This is a disaster if east has short spades and the heart ace. However, bridge is like that. You draw inferences, and sometimes you go wrong.

[AL78]

mikeh, on 2020-November-07, 01:37, said:

I think you got unlucky, in that I doubt that many defenders would lead the spade 9. It’s not that I disagree with the lead, especially at imps (yes, I know it was mps). The auction suggests that west has 4 or more spades and virtually all the defensive strength. If a spade lead is needed, it pretty much has to be on the opening lead. The reason I say this is better at imps than mps is because, while I think it pretty clear that a spade lead offers the best chance of beating the contract, the spade lead also risks blowing a trick. Say opener held AQ10x with Kx in dummy. Left to his own devices, declarer may well hold himself to 3spade tricks.

As for coping with the lead,I think Stephen is spot on. The reason for the spade lead is a lack of strength, which strongly (but not infallibly) suggests that west has the heart Ace. In that case, declarer has to duck in dummy, and win in hand. This is a disaster if east has short spades and the heart ace. However, bridge is like that. You draw inferences, and sometimes you go wrong.

That's a bit too deep for me to work out at the table. I was playing for split aces, knowing the ♠A was on my right.

[Cyberyeti]

mikeh, on 2020-November-07, 01:37, said:

I think you got unlucky, in that I doubt that many defenders would lead the spade 9. It’s not that I disagree with the lead, especially at imps (yes, I know it was mps). The auction suggests that west has 4 or more spades and virtually all the defensive strength. If a spade lead is needed, it pretty much has to be on the opening lead. The reason I say this is better at imps than mps is because, while I think it pretty clear that a spade lead offers the best chance of beating the contract, the spade lead also risks blowing a trick. Say opener held AQ10x with Kx in dummy. Left to his own devices, declarer may well hold himself to 3spade tricks.

As for coping with the lead,I think Stephen is spot on. The reason for the spade lead is a lack of strength, which strongly (but not infallibly) suggests that west has the heart Ace. In that case, declarer has to duck in dummy, and win in hand. This is a disaster if east has short spades and the heart ace. However, bridge is like that. You draw inferences, and sometimes you go wrong.

I think this is generally right but say 9x, Axx, xxxx, xxxx a spade lead is attractive because you have an entry to potentially put another spade through (although it would be more attractive if it was weak NT-3N with more of the strength in dummy), you're not going to assume they have 28 points between them, so even with an ace in your hand, partner may still have enough that you want to try to find his suit. Also you need to know what they lead from 9xx(x) as this influences your chances of 10 tricks. You might also want to check it they play strong 10s and if they lead this from 109xxx where ducking in dummy is best.

[mycroft]

I'd even think that ♥Axxx and out would often find a spade lead, because there's a decent chance the A will allow me to lead a second spade. A-fifth, sure.