Been a while since I posted here. MPs scoring, all vul. Click Next to follow the play so far. Note the 1NT bid shows 15-16. How do you play it from here?
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which finesse to take, if any Maths at work
#1
Posted 2020-October-08, 14:46
Been a while since I posted here. MPs scoring, all vul. Click Next to follow the play so far. Note the 1NT bid shows 15-16. How do you play it from here?
Wayne Somerville
#2
Posted 2020-October-08, 16:28
If we believe everything thus far, RHO has:
x
Axx
KQxx
AKxxx
How about a spade to the ace, ruff a club and finesse the diamond. Now RHO is endplayed into letting me get rid of my minor suit loser. If RHO's singleton spade was the ten or Jack, I can now finesse for an overtrick. If their singleton was the seven, I should have finessed in spades earlier. If spades were 3-2 all along I might go down in a cold contract.
x
Axx
KQxx
AKxxx
How about a spade to the ace, ruff a club and finesse the diamond. Now RHO is endplayed into letting me get rid of my minor suit loser. If RHO's singleton spade was the ten or Jack, I can now finesse for an overtrick. If their singleton was the seven, I should have finessed in spades earlier. If spades were 3-2 all along I might go down in a cold contract.
#3
Posted 2020-October-08, 16:47
sfi, on 2020-October-08, 16:28, said:
If we believe everything thus far, RHO has:
x
Axx
KQxx
AKxxx
How about a spade to the ace, ruff a club and finesse the diamond. Now RHO is endplayed into letting me get rid of my minor suit loser. If RHO's singleton spade was the ten or Jack, I can now finesse for an overtrick. If their singleton was the seven, I should have finessed in spades earlier. If spades were 3-2 all along I might go down in a cold contract.
x
Axx
KQxx
AKxxx
How about a spade to the ace, ruff a club and finesse the diamond. Now RHO is endplayed into letting me get rid of my minor suit loser. If RHO's singleton spade was the ten or Jack, I can now finesse for an overtrick. If their singleton was the seven, I should have finessed in spades earlier. If spades were 3-2 all along I might go down in a cold contract.
Except dummy actually played his last trump to the 3rd round of hearts so he just exits a club. If spades were 3-2 W might not have bid 1♠
#4
Posted 2020-October-08, 17:00
Hmmm ... W is supposed to have 6-7 points. Assuming he has ♣Q, that leaves either ♦Q or ♠J. Assuming the spades break 1-4, the prior odds of ♠J with West is 4/1, while ♦Q is equally likely to be with either as East has 1345 including ♦K.
Another consideration is that if E had 16 points and a 1345 shape, he might have preferred a reverse to the off-shape 1NT rebid, so maybe he's more likely to have ♠J. Also, maybe he's a bit more likely to make an off-shape 1NT rebid with an honour singleton? That wouldn't be my expectation with English club players but maybe it's different in NI.
I think I will cash a spade to see what E has. If he has the J or T I can ruff the club, draw the last trump and play ♠9.
BTW if we want to run a spade, why not ♠8? Don't we prefer W not to cover with JTxx?
Another consideration is that if E had 16 points and a 1345 shape, he might have preferred a reverse to the off-shape 1NT rebid, so maybe he's more likely to have ♠J. Also, maybe he's a bit more likely to make an off-shape 1NT rebid with an honour singleton? That wouldn't be my expectation with English club players but maybe it's different in NI.
I think I will cash a spade to see what E has. If he has the J or T I can ruff the club, draw the last trump and play ♠9.
BTW if we want to run a spade, why not ♠8? Don't we prefer W not to cover with JTxx?
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
#6
Posted 2020-October-08, 18:43
Are we not puzzled by the fact that the opps have missed a very good club contract.
East is presumably 1345 and west 4225.
Since east has a stiff, we need not worry about pairs opening a strong 1N. Thus the field will usually get to clubs at some level. 5C seems cold no matter whether west has a diamond honour.
Also, west has a clear 3C call over our 2H.
Thus we are in the nice position of rating to have a good result, since -1 rates to be above average, and +110 we rate to score a near top.
I lead a spade to dummy, looking at east’s card. If it’s the Jack or the 10, I ruff the club and lead the spade 9, which also allows me to win this or the next spade in hand and lead a diamond to the Jack, making 140 if LHO has the diamond Queen and 110 otherwise.
If rho plays the 7 on the 1st spade, ruff the club, lead the spade 8 (no reason not to, and LHO doesn’t strike me as very strong, given his pass of 2H). Assuming a cover, I play ace and a low diamond. I expect eventually to take another spade hook for 8 tricks
If east plays the 3 or 2 of spades on the first round, I ruff the club. Note that east should play low on this, but many easts will fly with the Ace. In any event, I now play two more spades, forcing pitches from east, who should pitch club reducing to KQxx x in the minors.
If he’s kept the club Ace, which he should not, I play a diamond to the Jack, and pitch a spade on the club Ace, forcing him to lead into dummy’s diamond tenace.
If he has properly unblocked in clubs, I lead the diamond 7, covering if west covers, ducking otherwise.
I ruff the club return and play a diamond towards dummy, covering west’s card if need be.
There are a few more permutations but I’ve typed enough.
East is presumably 1345 and west 4225.
Since east has a stiff, we need not worry about pairs opening a strong 1N. Thus the field will usually get to clubs at some level. 5C seems cold no matter whether west has a diamond honour.
Also, west has a clear 3C call over our 2H.
Thus we are in the nice position of rating to have a good result, since -1 rates to be above average, and +110 we rate to score a near top.
I lead a spade to dummy, looking at east’s card. If it’s the Jack or the 10, I ruff the club and lead the spade 9, which also allows me to win this or the next spade in hand and lead a diamond to the Jack, making 140 if LHO has the diamond Queen and 110 otherwise.
If rho plays the 7 on the 1st spade, ruff the club, lead the spade 8 (no reason not to, and LHO doesn’t strike me as very strong, given his pass of 2H). Assuming a cover, I play ace and a low diamond. I expect eventually to take another spade hook for 8 tricks
If east plays the 3 or 2 of spades on the first round, I ruff the club. Note that east should play low on this, but many easts will fly with the Ace. In any event, I now play two more spades, forcing pitches from east, who should pitch club reducing to KQxx x in the minors.
If he’s kept the club Ace, which he should not, I play a diamond to the Jack, and pitch a spade on the club Ace, forcing him to lead into dummy’s diamond tenace.
If he has properly unblocked in clubs, I lead the diamond 7, covering if west covers, ducking otherwise.
I ruff the club return and play a diamond towards dummy, covering west’s card if need be.
There are a few more permutations but I’ve typed enough.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#8
Posted 2020-October-22, 10:50
The full layout on this was below, you basically had to take an immediate deep spade finesse which works as long as it's not a stiff honour.
Wayne Somerville
#9
Posted 2020-October-23, 06:35
Thanks for posting this, interesting hand. It seems that everyone agrees that small to the Ace is better when RHO holds singleton J or 10 and running the 9 is better against singleton 2 or 3. And when RHO has the 7 they both work
MikeH points out extra chances in playing high if East keeps KQ9x, x but I think that East can counter this by coming down to D-KQ9 C- Ax. East wins the Diamond finesse and even though we duck the first club East just continues with another, which we must ruff with our last trump.
So for me, it's a draw between the two plays in spades
MikeH points out extra chances in playing high if East keeps KQ9x, x but I think that East can counter this by coming down to D-KQ9 C- Ax. East wins the Diamond finesse and even though we duck the first club East just continues with another, which we must ruff with our last trump.
So for me, it's a draw between the two plays in spades
#10
Posted 2020-October-23, 07:28
Douglas43, on 2020-October-23, 06:35, said:
Thanks for posting this, interesting hand. It seems that everyone agrees that small to the Ace is better when RHO holds singleton J or 10 and running the 9 is better against singleton 2 or 3. And when RHO has the 7 they both work
MikeH points out extra chances in playing high if East keeps KQ9x, x but I think that East can counter this by coming down to D-KQ9 C- Ax. East wins the Diamond finesse and even though we duck the first club East just continues with another, which we must ruff with our last trump.
So for me, it's a draw between the two plays in spades
MikeH points out extra chances in playing high if East keeps KQ9x, x but I think that East can counter this by coming down to D-KQ9 C- Ax. East wins the Diamond finesse and even though we duck the first club East just continues with another, which we must ruff with our last trump.
So for me, it's a draw between the two plays in spades
♠ 2 ♥ A 8 4 ♦ K Q 4 3 ♣ A K T 6 2 or
♠ 2 ♥ A 8 4 ♦ K Q 9 ♣ A K T 6 3 2
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Manudude03 'Been a while since I posted here. MPs scoring, all vul. Click Next to follow the play so far. Note the 1NT bid shows 15-16. How do you play it from here?'
+++++++++++++++++++++
You might try leading a ♠6 to ♠Q, hoping RHO has singleton ♠ J or T or 7. If you're lucky, you can then use your 2 ♥ entries to set up a 4th ♠ trick.
Your 8 tricks would be: 4 X ♠, 3 X ♥ and 1 X ♦
Otherwise you might find a favourable ♦ layout
e.g. LHO might have ♦98 doubleton or ♦ might be 3-3.