[Kungsgeten]

So we've been lacking a defense vs short minors for a while, but are currently working on one. The prime target is nebulous diamond, but we'll probably use it against short club and Polish/Swedish club too. Please leave a comment!

(1D)---
Pass = Natural, or 15-18 NT not suitable for double, or a single-suited hands with diamonds.
Dbl = Take-out with 4-3 or 4-4 majors, and 2+ clubs. Could be 5-4 majors if bad five card suit. Could also be a hand too strong for other actions, like 17+.
1M = Natural overcall. Perhaps four card suit a bit more common than usual (with good suit and hand that we think will be awkward if we pass).
1NT = "Raptor/Woolsey". 4M and a 5+ minor, about 10-16 hcp.
2C = Natural, usually no four card major. Usually 6+ clubs.
2D = Multi: weak (about 4-9) with hearts or spades.
2H = "Ekren": weakish (7-11 hcp) with 5-4 or 6-4 majors, or 5-5 majors and 7 losers.
2S = 5-5 majors, 5-6 losers.
2NT = 5-5 hearts + minor. At most 6 losers.
3CD = 5-5 spades + minors. 5-6 losers.

I guess its pretty standard stuff, apart from the way 5-5 hands are handled, the Raptor 1NT, the multi 2D overcall, and the weakish both majors 2H overcall. The concept is mostly constructive in nature, but at the same time should hopefully put some pressure on opps. From some simulations it seems like the 2H overcall will cause quite a bit of trouble for the opponents, but I guess its a double edged sword.

I have no experience myself playing a 2D overcall as multi, but I guess there may be a reason why people do not usually play it.

We discussed having the 2D overcall as natural, which seems pretty good but then two-suiters get kind of awkard (and/or you loose some weak options). Pass and hope to bid later will have to do with those hands.

If the opening is 1C, the structure is the same (2C is natural) and ofcourse we can overcall with 1D to show diamonds.

[phoenix214]

Hm, this seems a bit complicated:
But how about, just treat the 1D as natural, and play Questem over that, but keep the idea of playing Raptor, with out an anchor minor.

[Kungsgeten]

What is Questem?

[nige1]

Kungsgeten, on 2017-May-08, 08:58, said:

So we've been lacking a defense vs short minors for a while, but are currently working on one. The prime target is nebulous diamond, but we'll probably use it against short club and Polish/Swedish club too. Please leave a comment!

(1D)---
Pass = Natural, or 15-18 NT not suitable for double, or a single-suited hands with diamonds.
Dbl = Take-out with 4-3 or 4-4 majors, and 2+ clubs. Could be 5-4 majors if bad five card suit. Could also be a hand too strong for other actions, like 17+.
1M = Natural overcall. Perhaps four card suit a bit more common than usual (with good suit and hand that we think will be awkward if we pass).
1NT = "Raptor/Woolsey". 4M and a 5+ minor, about 10-16 hcp.
2C = Natural, usually no four card major. Usually 6+ clubs.
2D = Multi: weak (about 4-9) with hearts or spades.
2H = "Ekren": weakish (7-11 hcp) with 5-4 or 6-4 majors, or 5-5 majors and 7 losers.
2S = 5-5 majors, 5-6 losers.
2NT = 5-5 hearts + minor. At most 6 losers.
3CD = 5-5 spades + minors. 5-6 losers.

I guess its pretty standard stuff, apart from the way 5-5 hands are handled, the Raptor 1NT, the multi 2D overcall, and the weakish both majors 2H overcall. The concept is mostly constructive in nature, but at the same time should hopefully put some pressure on opps. From some simulations it seems like the 2H overcall will cause quite a bit of trouble for the opponents, but I guess its a double edged sword.

I have no experience myself playing a 2D overcall as multi, but I guess there may be a reason why people do not usually play it.

We discussed having the 2D overcall as natural, which seems pretty good but then two-suiters get kind of awkard (and/or you loose some weak options). Pass and hope to bid later will have to do with those hands.

If the opening is 1C, the structure is the same (2C is natural) and ofcourse we can overcall with 1D to show diamonds.

Good stuff, Kungsgeten We play something similar, trying to ignore their nebulous minor suit openings, with many bids retaining their normal opening-bid meaning e.g. after 1♣

• Pass = NAT
• Double = PEN. Would open 1♣.
• 1♦/♥/♠ = NAT Opening bid.
• 1N = ART. Raptor. 5m and 4M as recommended by Kit Woolsey.

[phoenix214]

In this spot:
2D = Majors
2N = lowest
3C = S+C
All options are 5-5:

Now you have a forcing bid with all options, except S+C, which you can get by using 3C,
Also partner will know which major you have when you preempt, so he can bump it up if need be.

[Kungsgeten]

I randomized 20.000 deals where they open a nebulous diamond. I defined the nebulous diamond like this (the version most common where I play):

a) 11-13 NT without a five card major.
b) Unbalanced with 5+D or 4D and 5C, no five card major, 11-16 hcp.
c) Any 4441 (even with short diamonds), 11-16 hcp.

The frequency of the options are something like this:

a = 59%
b = 34%
c = 7%

I also checked frequencies for different hands that direct seat can have over this opening.

Weak major = 7% (3.5% each)

Having a six card major with 4-9 hcp occurs about 7% of the openings. I had no requirements regarding suit quality, so the frequency are somewhat lower IRL.

5-5 majors = 0.5%
5-5 maj + clubs = 0.75% (so spades + clubs is 0.375%)
5-5 maj + diams = 0.59% (so spades + diamonds is 0.295%)
5-5 minors = 0.2%

I defined 5-5 hands as exactly 5-5 in the suits, and at most six losers. No requirements regarding suit quality. With 5-6 and 6-6 allowed the frequency should go up somewhat. The hand with 5-5 majors is most common, and both minors is the least common.

6+ clubs, no major = 1.4%
6+ diams, no major = 1%

Not sure how I should define natural minor overcalls at the two level, but I defined them as 6+ minor and no four card major (because of Raptor 1NT), 10-16 hcp, disregarding suit quality. If you overcall some five card suits (perhaps good five card suit 5332, or 5-4/5-5 minors, or good 5 card minor and bad 4 card major) the frequency will ofcourse go up.

Frequency wise a hand with 6+ diamonds is more common than playing 2♦ as 5-5 majors. But playing 2♦ as 5-5 in spades and another suit is more common than 6+ diamonds.

4M, 5+C = 2.6%
4M, 5+D = 2%
Strong NT = 3.9%

This is regarding frequency of a 1NT overcall (natural vs Raptor). The Raptor overcall is a bit more common. Raptor is defined as exactly 4 card major and 5+ minor, 10-16 hcp disregarding suit quality. If you lower the threshold for overcalling (as some do with these overcalls) the frequency will rise. Natural 1NT is defined as 15-18 NT with 5332, 4333 or 4432.

Flannery = 1.6%
Weak both majors = 4%

Some play Roman Jump Overcalls, where you show 5+ cards in the suit bid and 4(+) cards in the higher touching suit. So with 5+♥ and 4♠ you could overcall 2♥, which would essentially be a Flannery overcall. I defined this as 5+♥ and exactly 4♠ and 10-16 hcp, but if you also allow 5-5 majors the frequency will rise. 5+♥ and 4♠ could be somewhat awkward if you make a normal heart overcall, since you may not be able to show spades later. Another factor is the preemptive effect: you've taken away the one level and almost the whole two level, and the opponents haven't shown a suit yet.

With the preemptive effect in mind I looked at overcalling weakish hands with both majors: 5-4 or 6-4 or 5-5 (either suit can be longer), and 7-11 hcp. Now the reason are mostly preemptive: the opponents will have to discover a minor fit a the 3-level, or sell out, or perhaps risk a penalty double. If it is a partscore battle, many times we've shown where we belong.

---

So the above is the reasoning for choosing the structure in the OP. Not sure if it is the right conclusion to make, but I look forward to trying it out The multi overcall is probably the one I dislike most, because natural weak overcalls are more preemptive (especially 2♠). Another idea could be to include other meanings in the multi, or just change it all together. An idea could be something like this:

2D = Weak with hearts, or 5-5 hearts and a minor at most 6 losers. Now it promises hearts.
2S = Weak with spades.
2NT = 5-5 majors, at most 6 losers. Could also play it as 5-5 majors or minors. A downside is that you can not play 2S, compared to OP structure.

Yet another option could ofcourse be 2D as weak with hearts, or 5-5 majors. Its easier to defend the bid if it has an anchor suit though.

[helene_t]

Don't you miss a preempt in clubs?

[Kungsgeten]

helene_t, on 2017-May-09, 02:51, said:

Don't you miss a preempt in clubs?

Yes we do. We also miss a preempt in diamonds. In the current structure that could be remedied by playing 2S as 5-5 spades and another suit, then 3m could be preemptive. This makes 2S somewhat bulky though, but may work ok.

If we define a preempt as 6+ suit and 7 or 8 losers and less than 10 hcp (not sure if that's a good definition, might be too strong?) then we have a frequency of 0.9% for clubs and 0.7% for diamonds.

[Zelandakh]

My suggestion for 2-suiters is a slight modificaion to yours but I think you might like it:-

Over (1♦)
==
2♦ = WJO in a major; or ♠ + a minor, strong
2♥ = 5+♥, 4+♠, weak
2♠ = 5+♠, 5+m, weak
2NT = 5+♥, 5+♣, weak or strong
3♣ = 5+♥, 5+♦, weak or strong
3♦ = 5+♥, 5+♠, strong

You could also use 2NT as ♥ + a minor and reclaim 3♣ as a WJO if preferred. You could of course also include 5♠4♥ hands within the 2♥ overcall as per the OP but my testing has suggested that having at least one suit known to be 5+ cards is beneficial.

The above module can be paired with a traditional structure (natural 1NT, etc) or with the Raptor-based method from the OP. Overall you are putting more pressure on the opponents and are able to stop lower sometimes, so I feel this is a clear improvement.

[wank]

phoenix214, on 2017-May-08, 16:24, said:

In this spot:
2D = Majors
2N = lowest
3C = S+C
All options are 5-5:

Now you have a forcing bid with all options, except S+C, which you can get by using 3C,
Also partner will know which major you have when you preempt, so he can bump it up if need be.

if you play ghestem, 3C should never contain clubs. that way you can bid it with strong hands.

[awm]

Looking at the frequencies, I'd prefer to maximize my results on the one-suited hands rather than optimize the 5-5 patterns. It seems like smashing the WJO into multi in order to devote four bids to 5-5 is not best.

Perhaps something like 2D = weak majors or strong spades and another with 2nt strong hearts and another?

[Zelandakh]

The problem with that is that you end up having to guess too much Adam. The 2M advances to a 2♦ overcall need to be ParadoX for the whole thing to work. There are 4 hand types that have to be fit into the 3 calls - WJO in hearts, WJO in spades, weak with both majors, weak with spades and a minor. It just works better when 2♦ covers the WJO types. It is different over a 1♣ opening and you might well be right that rearranging would be better. However I choose to use the same structure for both to save on overheads. It is not as if the WJO-based structure is clearly better even in this case.

[Kungsgeten]

I think we'll go with:

2D = WJO in hearts or 5-5 majors, 6 losers or less.
2H = Weak both majors.
2S = WJO.
2NT, 3C, 3D = Two-suiters M + m, as OP.

Now 2D always show 5+ hearts, and bidding 2S removes their opportunity to bid 2H.

[Zelandakh]

The main downside is that you can no longer stop in 2♠ with spades and a minor. A secondary consideration is that strong 2-suiters need to go a different way, presumably starting with a double.

[nullve]

I'm toying with

(1♦*)-?:

* nebulous, 1st seat

P = a) 10+, like a Precision 1♦/2♣/2♦ opening in terms of shape (11-13 or 17+ if BAL) b) very strong hand
...X/1♥+ = "T-Walsh"?
X = weak hand unsuitable for 2♣+. Maybe 0-10 BAL if NV vs. V?
1M = normal
1N = 14-16 BAL
2♣+ = weak preempts?

Yes, the double is probably suicidal when V vs. NV (at least!!).