[661_Pete]

This was a fairly spectacular deal:

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West led a spade to K and A. I drew one trump to which both followed and then played Q and 10 of spades, hoping to ruff in dummy. Alas! W ruffed with the Q♦. One down.

As I see it the only way of making as the cards lie is to lead a ♣ hoping west will take the A and will then lead a second ♠. Is this a better guess than the one I took? Surely West - noticing East's K♠, will place me with the Q and hence not continue?

I'm not very good at weighing up the odds, I just assumed East's double might show more than a singleton ♦.

[Cyberyeti]

No harm in leading a club anyway, if W wins, he may lead a trump, then a good guess and a spade finesse will get you home. Might also lead a spade in the hope that his pd has KJ10.

[GrahamJson]

On the bidding leading a club does not look a good idea as you would expect east to hold the ace. Plus of course it still won't make even if west has the ace provided there isn't a misdefence.

Trying to ruff a spade looks reasonable. The only alternative is to run all your diamonds, coming down to a four card ending. The hope is that east has all the outstanding high cards, reasonable on the bidding, and comes down to Kx A - A. Then exiting with a club forces a spade return. This of course doesn't work as the cards lie, but does if east has KJxxxx AKQ X Axx or similar. (It also works if east is missing K or Q of hearts and doesn't discard the ace.)

[GrahamJson]

Looking again at the hands presumably west led the S3. This could be from J73 or similar, making your line of player even more reasonable as it only loses on the actual distribution, I.e. Doubletons in both spades and diamonds. Still, as another has pointed out I guess that there is no harm in trying a small club first, hoping for a misdefence.

[msjennifer]

No Chance at all unless the opponents commit some stupid mistake.West is not going to return a spade as East has denied the Queen.Wests only hope is that they can cash two heart tricks.

[alok c]

Your line is reasonable but as the cards lie it can be made cashing all ♦ ending with in hand Q10-J-nil-x & Dummy 8-nil-nil-KJx.East is to keep 2♠,if he keeps both the♥,he can be endplayed in ♥.If he keeps one ♥ & one ♣,a club lead from hand will bring 11 tricks.

[nekthen]

alok c, on 2017-January-28, 07:43, said:

Your line is reasonable but as the cards lie it can be made cashing all ♦ ending with in hand Q10-J-nil-x & Dummy 8-nil-nil-KJx.East is to keep 2♠,if he keeps both the♥,he can be endplayed in ♥.If he keeps one ♥ & one ♣,a club lead from hand will bring 11 tricks.

Close but no cigar!
East must throw K♥ to avoid the end play

[Joe_Old]

alok c, on 2017-January-28, 07:43, said:

Your line is reasonable but as the cards lie it can be made cashing all ♦ ending with in hand Q10-J-nil-x & Dummy 8-nil-nil-KJx.East is to keep 2♠,if he keeps both the♥,he can be endplayed in ♥.If he keeps one ♥ & one ♣,a club lead from hand will bring 11 tricks.

what if W keeps nil Q98 nil A opposite J9 2 nil Q? won't W take 4 tricks on a club or heart lead, and 3 tricks on a spade Q lead?

[alok c]

nekthen, on 2017-January-28, 07:55, said:

Close but no cigar!
East must throw K♥ to avoid the end play

That is the second position mentioned by me.East is Jx-A-nil-Q then play a ♣ from hand, they can take one♣ & one ♥ as East again will be endplayed.

[alok c]

Joe_Old, on 2017-January-28, 07:57, said:

what if W keeps nil Q98 nil A opposite J9 2 nil Q? won't W take 4 tricks on a club or heart lead, and 3 tricks on a spade Q lead?

East does not know where ♥Q is,if he still discards Hearts AK, congratulate him.

[Joe_Old]

alok c, on 2017-January-28, 08:02, said:

That is the second position mentioned by me.East is Jx-A-nil-Q then play a ♣ from hand, they can take one♣ & one ♥ as East again will be endplayed.

No, E must pitch the AK♥, keeping the 2. Then no end play

[Joe_Old]

alok c, on 2017-January-28, 08:07, said:

East does not know where ♥Q is.

From careful discards W can show 2-4-2-5 distribution. E knows W must have the ♣A, or S has 11 tricks already. If E keeps J9 A2 nil nil then E knows he can get to W's ♥Q or J (since E knows S has only one ♥).

[gszes]

While I vastly prefer 3n* to 5d (almost as preemptive and usually far easier to make) you should congratulate yourself on taking what appears to be your best shot at making 5d. The alternative squeeze hoping against hope east cannot or does not figure out how to pitch effectively is such a low % as to be not worth mentioning. If lho had started with a higher spade (increasing the odds of it being from a doubleton then I think the squeeze becomes more palatable but here it seems like the best for three reasons.
1. The opening lead could easily be from Jxx (many pairs lead low from 3 small also).
2. The dia Q could drop singleton and even if lho wanted to ruff the 3rd spade dummy can overruff
3. Lho might have started with only 1 dia. Not a high degree of probability but still adding a few % points toward making.

Do not concern yourself with always making a contract-- concern yourself with taking the best LOP. The best LOP will not always work but the development of that skill will go a long way toward making you a much feared opponent. keep up the good work.


* there really is still far too much chance of game even opposite a passed partner. Not only is 3n usually far easier to make and requires far less from partner the only time it will seem wrong is if lho can x (which would mean partner is truly broke) and running to 4d (depending on vulnerability) might seem prudent under those circumstances.

[msjennifer]

alok c, on 2017-January-28, 08:07, said:

East does not know where ♥Q is,if he still discards Hearts AK, congratulate him.

So the so called "solution" was right if you were sitting East.

[661_Pete]

Thanks for the answers. Certainly not a run-of-the-mill sort of deal - or play. My partner thought at first, I could have made it simply by drawing the second trump, hence my posting it up here. But on a second glance, we agreed that obviously I couldn't (without a lot of help from the opps!). A pity: when I overcalled I had in mind more than a sacrifice...

[alok c]

msjennifer, on 2017-January-28, 11:06, said:

So the so called "solution" was right if you were sitting East.

Of course,i'm far off & never pretend to be in the same league of "Marshal Miles".