[BunnyGo]

Hi all,

An intermediate level friend of mine is practicing his IMP declarer play (he's only done MPs until now). He sent me the following hand and asked for my comments--I told him two lines I considered, but that I could be missing something and wasn't able to tell which line was better. Thanks for your comments.

---

The lead was the club 4.

He said he took the first trick in hand and immediately played a heart to dummy's king to set up a spade discard--this did not work out well for him when east got a club ruff, and he had to lose a diamond still. I suggested the following thoughts:

Hello,

So here's how I think about the hand:

1) The 4 is either singleton, 3rd best or 4th best--cannot be 2nd.
2) Why would he lead from xxx of clubs? So likely singleton or 4th best, that means a club ruff is likely coming.

3) I have to lead a heart before they get in and lead spades
4) I have 2 ways to avoid extra losers:

a) I can play the A of diamonds. If the K is singleton or if the K is doubleton and that person is going to get the club ruff, then I'm safe--or if the person getting the ruff only had 1 trump, then I'm safe. I'll either pull trump if the king falls, or lead the heart now.

b) I can win trick 1 in dummy and immediately finesse the diamond.

Let's compare these two lines (and let me say, I think this hand is subtle, and I could easily be wrong, so I'm going to post it on bridgebase online and ask for advice there).

The finesse line is easy to analyze. If the king is onside, either singleton, doubleton or Kxx, then you get 4 clubs, 5 or 6 diamonds, 1 spade, and hopefully 1 heart (likely on the bidding). The finesse is better than 50-50 based on the 2H bid, but not a sure thing. Also, if it fails, you're immediately down.

Playing the diamond A is a bit harder to analyze. There are several advantageous cases: 1) the king falls singleton. 2) The person threatening a ruff has a singleton 3) the person with Kx is threatening the ruff. If the king isn't singleton, then you need the heart finesse to make.

I'm not sure which is better, but both are better than your original line.

[steve2005]

I don't think A) has much chance. whoever wins K switches to ♠ and you lose 1♦ 1♥ and 1♠ unless K♦ is singleton.
B) is better but if ♦ fails west can lead a ♠ if they can't give a ♣ ruff.

I like leading up to K♥ which has good chance then you have a pitch for a ♠. If west can give east a ♣ ruff then you can still finesse ♦ for contract. If west can't give east a ♣ ruff then you make an overtrick if ♦ finesse works.

Also, I think when you finesse ♦ don't lead J as I think you can't pickup 3-1 cause missing T98, so go for 2-2 or singleton K with east.

[nige1]

5♦ by South. West leads ♣4. BunnyGo compares 3 lines

A) Play A of diamonds. If the K is singleton or if the K is doubleton and that person is going to get the club ruff, then I'm safe--or if the person getting the ruff only had 1 trump, then I'm safe. I'll either pull trump if the king falls, or lead the heart now.
B) I can win trick 1 in dummy and immediately finesse the diamond.
C) Take the first trick in hand and immediately played a heart to dummy's king to set up a spade discard--this did not work out well for him when east got a club ruff, and he had to lose a diamond still."



I agree with Steve2005, that line C is best, winning
- When LHO has ♥A and
- When ♣4 isn't singleton and RHO has ♦K singleton or doubleton.

---

[BunnyGo]

Hi guys, thanks for the responses: Line A was suggested that you just play the Ace and if the king doesn't fall, lead the heart now--don't lead a second heart. This protects against a ruff when the ruffing hand has Kx or x, or either hand has K.

I think that this line is strictly better than line C, as line C requires the same things as line A, but loses to a ruff. The advantage of C over A is that when a ruff isn't coming, and the heart finesse loses, it can still finesse the diamond to try and pick the suit for no losers.

[Stephen Tu]

If LHO led from 4 clubs, then bang down DA cater to LHO having stiff DK only. If LHO have small stiff D, RHO Kxx, then even LHO win HA give club ruff doesn't matter, because now diamond hook will pick up the suit, RHO just ruffed with natural trump trick. But if you banged down the ace, then lead heart, now RHO scores both club ruff and DK.

If rho has stiff club and DKx, either bang down ace or lead heart up trick 2 works fine.

[jogs]

nige1, on 2015-September-26, 16:28, said:

I agree with Seve2005, that line C is best, winning
- When LHO has ♥A and
- When ♣4 isn't singleton and RHO has ♦K singleton or doubleton.[/hv]

When opponents bid and raise a suit and then lead another suit, isn't it a singleton 99+% of the time?

[nige1]

jogs, on 2015-September-26, 21:06, said:

When opponents bid and raise a suit and then lead another suit, isn't it a singleton 99+% of the time?

• If RHO has ♥A and LHO has a small singleton ♦ or doubleton ♦Kx, then the contract was doomed to lose at least 1♠, 1♥, and 1♦.
• Immediately cashing ♦A wins when LHO has singleton ♦K.
• It also gains when LHO has ♥A, 4 ♣s and RHO has 2 minor singletons..
• But it loses when LHO has 4♣s, ♥A and a small singleton ♦ (more likely).

[mikeh]

The first thing an aspiring declarer has to learn is that one needs to take inferences from what the opps do or don't do.

Here, the overwhelmingly correct inference, against any players who know anything about the game, is that the club lead is a stiff. I know it wasn't, but at the table no competent player would think there was much likelihood of it being from 4 clubs. The auction simply doesn't make a club lead attractive from a 4 card holding, no matter what RHO's stiff is.

So: we would mentally assume that the club was a stiff and analyze our contract on that basis. If we see that the contract is always cold on that assumption, then we look at what happens if we are wrong...if it is from a 4 card suit. Can we guard against that improbable situation while not endangering the contract when it was from a stiff? If so, we do so even if it means giving up on a possible overtrick. But if guarding against 4-1 clubs threatens the contract when they are 1-4, forget it...the 1-4 is overwhelmingly more likely.

If LHO has a stiff club, he won't (to a high degree of won't) have a stiff diamond.

Our lines are:

1. win in dummy, hook the diamond. Given that LHO has 7 round cards, there is a good likelihood of his holding the diamond K. If he has that, he will have no choice but to switch to a spade and down we go.

2. Win in hand and lead a heart. On the reasonable assumption that the heart A is onside (I'd say it was 90%, since he was red for his 2H call and if he held, for example, QJxxxx, he'd lead the heart Q much of the time). Now they cannot beat us, since on the operating assumption about clubs, he cannot get to his partner's hand. We win the spade switch, take our pitch and lead a low diamond, making 12 tricks if RHO has stiff K or Kx in trump.

Line 2 has to be by far the stronger line.

The advancing player has to learn that the fact that the correct line failed and an inferior line worked, is not a reason to refuse to take inferences.

Admittedly, the worse the opps, the less reliable the inferences will be, which is why, paradoxically, it is sometimes harder to succeed as declarer against bad opps than good. Unless the bad opps are pitching tricks (which they do a great deal of the time), it is far less certain that one can draw inferences from what they do, whereas a good player will always have a reason for their play, and one can often reverse engineer from their play to figure out why they did it. With the bad defender, there may have been no logical reason, or the reason may have been utterly wrong. Here, for example, I defy anyone to come up with a plausible reason to lead a club from xxxx on an auction in which the opps have not even hinted at a club fit.

[phil_20686]

mikeh, on 2015-September-27, 11:20, said:

The first thing an aspiring declarer has to learn is that one needs to take inferences from what the opps do or don't do.


Here, for example, I defy anyone to come up with a plausible reason to lead a club from xxxx on an auction in which the opps have not even hinted at a club fit.

KJx AQJxxx - xxxx ?

Think that would fetch a club lead some of the time. I agree with pretty much everything you said, just, weird leads just happen a lot in bridge.....

[phil_20686]

I really think his line was best, of win in hand and play a heart. To make this without scoring the heart K when a club ruff is coming you need Kx diamond in the slot, and that just isnt that likely. If no club ruff is coming you might as well try a heart up as if that works you can win the return ditch a space and play ace and an other diamond and claim on any 3-1 diamond break.

If a club ruff is coming then a heart up wins when lho has the stiff club and can't get his partner on lead, which seems like by far the most likely scenario. If the heart finesse loses and a club ruff comes back, you probably never had a chance, since that almost always gives lho two or three diamonds including the K. I mean, are you really going to try to cater for lho being 3721 without the heart Ace and with the diamond K, when you could make when he has the heart ace and not the diamond K?

If lho wins the heart ace and gives RHO a ruff you are still in good shape, as the lead from xxxx club would strongly indicate that lho has a spade tenace that he doesnt want to lead form, so I would now happily take the D finesse thinking that lho probbaly has some Kx AQJxxx x xxxx or similar.