[lamford]

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Spingold Final. Contract 6NT by South or 7NT by North on a spade lead.

The early auction was similar in both rooms on this hand, but Helgemo jumped to 7NT because of the state of the match, when he found all the key cards were present. It is good to get back to bridge after all the bad press of the last few days, and this was an interesting play problem, with three or more possible lines. You can still comment if, as is likely, you know the hand.

a) How would you play 6NT? and
b) How do you play 7NT?

[gszes]

6n

First order of business it to duck a dia in order to rectify the count for any squeeze that might work.

trick 1 win spade Q in hand
trick 2 play a dia toward the T

If lho insert an honor win the A and return to hand with the heart K and lead another dia toward the T (if it wins OR lho rises with the other honor the hand is over if it loses morph into lop for the T loses first round*.

trick 3* If the dia T loses the first round win whatever is returned with the ace of the suit lead.
trick 4 dia to the K
trick 5 dia to A to see if dia split 33. If yes hand is over if no then

if lho has the 4th dia squeeze chances are dramatically reduced so finesse in clubs
trick 6 club to the ace
trick 7 club to the J one way or another the hand is over.

if rho has the 4th dia now squeeze chances look decent and I would try the following

trick 6 heart K this will leave the heart 9 as a threat card against one or both opps Vienna coupe or the heart QJ drop doubleton
trick 7/10 spades (saving your dia pitch for trick 10 so rho has to keep their dia) reducing our combined hands to

void
9
void
A8

void
void
void
KJ5

Assuming the heart 9 is not good you play the club A and a club to the K since it is either a show up squeeze against rho or lho began with Qx in clubs or held the heart guard and reduced to Qx (yay) or you go down (after all that work).

Works if lho began with QJ of dia or dia split 33 or if the squeeze works or the heart QJ drop doubleton

IN 7nt we have an entirely different problem since we must squeeze 2 extra tricks. So it is either hope the club Q and the Heart QJ are all onside taking 3 finesses OR

trick 1 win the spade
trick 2 club ace If the Q falls (yay) proceed to trick 3*
trick 3 club to J if it loses hand is over (so would playing for 3 finesses). Assume it wins (yay)*
trick 4 dia A
trick 5 dia K setting up a vienna coupe against either player holding QJx(x) or Qxxx or Jxxx and the top 2 hearts. you could do the same in hearts but playing on diamonds gives you a slightly better chance of dropping the QJ doubleton of dia.
trick 6 Assuming the QJ of dia did not drop doubleton (or the hand is over) club K (pitching a heart)
trick 7 heart A in case a heart** honor drops
trick 8 spade
trick 9 spade
trick 10 spade
trick 11 spade
reducing our hands to
void
x
T
void

void
AT
void

assuming the dia is no good decide to finesse the heart T** or play for the drop (vienna coupe actually worked). Lots more fun than depending on 3 finesses noone wants to be that lucky anyway.

[shyams]

Declaring 6NT: If spades split 4-1, odds of play change but I assume they are 3-2/2-3 (we're told both North and South got spade leads on the actual deal)

So, cash top three spades ending in dummy and lead the ♦7 from dummy.
(a) If East plays 2 or 3, we definitely duck knowing West is on lead.
(b) If East plays 8 or 9, we duck and hope for a 3-3 or an enforced overtake.
© If East plays J or Q, we win and play for split diamond honors -- i.e. finesse the ♦10.
If we succeed in ducking the first diamond trick to West, it should keep more squeeze plays options alive.

Declaring 7NT: I think we will be forced to take a double finesse in ♥. Even if the ♣ finesse succeeds, any successful squeeze positions in the red suits for the 13th trick look anti-percentage. So, it must be better to play for the ~25% chance in hearts first and then work out suitable squeeze positions in the minors.

[lamford]

 shyams, on 2015-September-01, 16:43, said:

Declaring 6NT: If spades split 4-1, odds of play change but I assume they are 3-2/2-3 (we're told both North and South got spade leads on the actual deal)

So, cash top three spades ending in dummy and lead the ♦7 from dummy.
(a) If East plays 2 or 3, we definitely duck knowing West is on lead.
(b) If East plays 8 or 9, we duck and hope for a 3-3 or an enforced overtake.
(c) If East plays J or Q, we win and play for split diamond honors -- i.e. finesse the ♦10.
If we succeed in ducking the first diamond trick to West, it should keep more squeeze plays options alive.

Declaring 7NT: I think we will be forced to take a double finesse in ♥. Even if the ♣ finesse succeeds, any successful squeeze positions in the red suits for the 13th trick look anti-percentage. So, it must be better to play for the ~25% chance in hearts first and then work out suitable squeeze positions in the minors.

I agree that one should take the double heart finesse in 7NT. If that holds, the minor suit squeeze on West has gone up quite a bit, although the club finesse is still a possibility. As the finesses are all against the same player, it will be a bit less than 12%, something like 1/2*11/23*10/22 I guess (10.9%). Add something for the QJ doubleton in diamonds. The squeeze plus the double heart finesse seems a better chance, as people say, but when West bares the queen of clubs you have to guess the ending. They will never allow the ten of diamonds to become a winner, so you cannot have both. I am still uncertain as to which is better (I would go for the double heart finesse then the squeeze as you do), and I have not tackled 6NT fully yet.

[nige1]

Lambert asks "Spingold Final. Contract 6NT by South or 7NT by North on a spade lead?"

My guesses:
6N: Win ♠ cheaply. Lead ♦ to ♦T, unless West plays an honour. (If West plays an honour, then cross to ♥A and lead another ♦ towards ♦T). Win return and test ♦ If they are worth 3 tricks, then claim. Otherwise cash ♥K, ♠s ,♣A. If East has 4th ♦, then you have a show up squeeze. Otherwise finesse ♣J.

7N: Win ♠. Cash ♦KA. If ♦QJ drop then cash ♦T and ♥AK: If ♥QJ drop then claim otherwise cash ♠s. If East has the long ♦, you may have a show-up/double-squeeze otherwise finesse ♣.
If ♦QJ don't drop and you feel that East has sole control of ♦, then finesse ♣J and cash black winners hoping for a red suit-squeeze on East. But if you feel that West controls ♦, then finesse ♥ twice and ♣s once

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[gnasher]

In 7NT, I'd probably cash five rounds of spades throwing two diamonds, then decide between:
- Club finesse + red-suit squeeze
- Double heart finesse + club finesse
- Double heart finesse + minor-suit squeeze

I don't think it's sensible to choose a line before seeing what they discard on the spades and how they do it. It's going to be quite hard for them to defend this without giving something away.

[jodepp]

I'm interested in the 'bad press', which I haven't heard anything about. Can anyone expound on that?

[lamford]

 jodepp, on 2015-September-02, 05:15, said:

I'm interested in the 'bad press', which I haven't heard anything about. Can anyone expound on that?

Not on this thread which is only for bridge play, please. I suggest you go to Ch..... Allegations in the General Bridge Discussion. If you have not heard anything about it, then Outings for Ostriches, a weekly publication, might be your cup of tea.