[y66]

 Winstonm, on 2018-December-31, 11:06, said:

So, when we die we'll have "total consciousness"?

The Lama promised "on our deathbed". Not suggesting we're there yet although this thread may be close.

[Winstonm]

 y66, on 2018-December-31, 11:31, said:

The Lama promised "on our deathbed". Not suggesting we're there yet although this thread may be close.

How can it die when you have straight lines like this:

Quote

“If anybody but Donald Trump Individual-1 did what I did in Syria, which was an ISIS loaded mess when I became President, they would be a national hero,” Trump Individual-1 wrote.

But you are a national hero I-1. Bashar al-Assad has a picture of you on his fridge - it was given to him by Vladimir!

Big hitter, the Lama. Long.

[johnu]

 barmar, on 2018-December-31, 10:35, said:

So he's given information, but routinely ignores it. It's not clear which is worse.

In fairness to Dennison, most of the time he stops listening if the subject gets away from telling him how great he it, and the rest of the time he has no clue what the basis of the arguments are.

[johnu]

 barmar, on 2018-December-30, 01:23, said:

As vile as I think Trump and his policies are, I suspect it would take the kind of twisted legal logic only found in "Law and Order" episodes to make them criminally responsible for these deaths. There's just too long a chain of cause-and-effect between establishing a crappy border control policy and the poor health management of the detainees to hold any one or two people liable. If that actually worked, you could also hold lawmakers responsible for prisoners who have severe mental reactions to solitary confinement, or hold the administration responsible for people who die as a result of reductions in Obamacare requirements.

In an unrelated matter,

Michigan's top public health official to stand trial for 2 deaths connected with Flint water crisis

I was very surprised the "old" governor of Michigan who was in charge of the scandal has not been investigated for conspiracy on these charges and indicted yet. With a new Democratic Governor, who knows.

[Chas_P]

Happy New Year to all.

[y66]

From Matt Levine at Bloomberg:

Quote

Some stats for you. The last Money Stuff of 2018 was sent out in the morning of December 20; the previous day, the S&P 500 Index had closed at 2506.96. The first Money Stuff of 2019—this one—is going out in the morning of Wednesday, January 2; the previous trading day, Monday, December 31, the S&P closed at 2506.85. That’s a seven-trading-day move of 0.11 points, or about 0.004 percent. In the last ten years, there have been only six seven-trading-day periods with smaller stock-market moves. Basically my vacation was as quiet as the stock market ever gets, if you look only at the endpoints, which I did, because, remember, I was on vacation.

In the middle, it was otherwise. The market went down a lot for a couple of days, and then it had an up 5 percent day last Wednesday, December 26, a day that was so good that it “was the first time ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg that stretches back to 1990, in which more than 500 stocks in the S&P 500 finished positive.”[1] But it all ended up where it was when I left. Which is still not great; the market ended 2018 down about 6.2 percent for the year.

The best stock market advice is of course Will Rogers’s—basically, buy the stocks that are going to go up—but let me also put in a plug for “if the markets are going to be wildly volatile for a week or so but end up where they started, maybe take the week off.” This is not good advice for everyone—if you’re a professional trader, volatile times are where you make your money, and I suppose there are like five retail investors for whom that is also true—but it is good advice for almost everyone.[2]

But it is a particularly good approach if you are a financial columnist. Here I am, with the benefit of rest and hindsight, able to ignore the market gyrations of the last couple of weeks. But imagine if I’d come to work on Christmas Eve, with the market continuing its plunge, and felt the need to explain what had gone wrong. Feh! I am an efficient-markets purist, meaning that I believe not that markets are rational but just that I cannot explain or predict them. The market went down because it went down, and then later it went up because it went up, and fortunately you didn’t have to read that sage analysis from me at the time because I was on vacation.

[y66]

Paul Ryan leaves office with a 12 percent favorable rating, 32 percentage points lower than Trump's 44 percent job performance approval rating per a Civics survey of registered voters.

[y66]

Quote

23 years ago, from a refugee camp in Kenya, my father and I arrived at an airport in Washington DC.

Today, we return to that same airport on the eve of my swearing in as the first Somali-American in Congress.

Ilhan Omar: Mom, Refugee, Intersectional Feminist, 2017 Top Angler of the Governor's Fishing Opener and Representative-Elect for #MN05

[johnu]

OMG

Dennison says former Soviet Union was 'right' to invade Afghanistan, prompting ridicule

Quote

Afghanistan made it Russia because they went bankrupt fighting in Afghanistan," Trump said during a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. "The reason Russia was in Afghanistan was because terrorists were going into Russia. They were right to be there."

The former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to prop up Afghanistan's then- communist government, which was battling anticommunist guerrillas.

Holy smokes, somebody in the Russia Kompromat Ministry is going to get a Yuuuge bonus for getting Dennison to parrot the Russian talking point which has been broadcast nationally across many TV stations. Why waste Russian money on propaganda pieces on Twitter and Facebook when you have POTUS in your pocket. Das Vedanya.

P.S. The entire cabinet meeting would have been hilarious if it wasn't so frightening. Dennison is nearing a complete break from reality and his cabinet is applauding the meltdown.

[Winstonm]

Perhaps instead of packing the SCOTUS the better solution would be to reduce it by 2. Wouldn't the justices with least seniority get the boot?

[Winstonm]

I'm quoting from a comment on the Emptywheel site, so take it for what that is worth to you:

Quote

I’m glad to see you baldly emphasize Trump’s narcissistic personality disorder and the way it complicates the situation (this is coming from a psychiatrist). The media has largely been taken to task any time this n-word has been used, and it’s the elephant in the room. People say he’s erratic, he’s unpredictable, he’s a loose cannon, and so on, but his behavior is actually predictable if you understand pathological narcissism.

.... one thing that gives me hope is that his narcissism precludes him from thinking three steps ahead. He reacts to the choice in front of him, and is confident that he can turn any mistake he makes to his advantage. He is colossally easy to trick....

One thing that gives me hope about him lashing out is that the military has shown a willingness to ignore his orders, or at least play for time. There are still a lot of ways he can damage the country, but I don’t think he can successfully start a war. The way his trash talked all the generals he initially praised has also likely used up any credibility he had with the military.

....There is no preserving “some of” a narcissist’s ego. It’s all or nothing. Any damage to his ego is unacceptable to him, or rather, it’s intolerable to him.....As soon as things start to go bad for him, the sh*t will hit the fan....

[Winstonm]

Treasury yield curve for 1-3-19:
1 Mo/ 2 Mo/ 3 Mo/ 6 Mo/ 1 Yr/ 2 Yr/ 3 Yr/ 5 Yr/ 7 Yr/ 10 Yr/ 20 Yr/ 30 Yr
2.42- 2.42- 2.41- 2.47- 2.50- 2.39- 2.35- 2.37- 2.44- 2.56- 2.75- 2.92

Although the 2-10 spread is usually quoted as recession predicting, surely these inversions mean a lack of confidence for the next few years.

[johnu]

 johnu, on 2019-January-03, 02:47, said:

OMG

Dennison says former Soviet Union was 'right' to invade Afghanistan, prompting ridicule

Holy smokes, somebody in the Russia Kompromat Ministry is going to get a Yuuuge bonus for getting Dennison to parrot the Russian talking point which has been broadcast nationally across many TV stations. Why waste Russian money on propaganda pieces on Twitter and Facebook when you have POTUS in your pocket. Das Vedanya.

P.S. The entire cabinet meeting would have been hilarious if it wasn't so frightening. Dennison is nearing a complete break from reality and his cabinet is applauding the meltdown.

Yet another repetition of Russian talking points from Dennison the Manchurian Puppet.

There was this:

'Stupid statements' - Dennison WW3 jibe stuns Montenegro

Quote

"They're very strong people, they're very aggressive people. They may get aggressive and, congratulations, you're in World War Three," Mr Trump extemporised.

For the record, Montenegro is a tiny country of ~600,000 people that was part of Yugoslavia before it broke up.

Why does Russia bother on paying for their own subversive propaganda agents when they have the greatest Russian agent in the world, Dennison, who is also President of the United States.

Background: Russia was against NATO membership for Montenegro, and was also behind a plot to assasinate the Montenegro Prime Minister.

And there was this:

MYTH BUSTED: IS POLAND PLANNING TO ATTACK BELARUS?

Dennison parroted the Russian talking point that Poland planning to attack Belarus in an interview on Fox. Again, Russia is desperate to keep NATO from expanding into Belarus.

I would ask what country is the Manchurian Puppet working for, but the answer is all too obvious.

[johnu]

From the big lies, to the small lies,

Trump Says Country Wants Border Wall, But That’s Not What Polls Say

Quote

And opponents can’t call the White House switchboard to let the president know because it’s not working due to the government shutdown.

Nor can supporters call the White House.

Quote

Trump was apparently referring to personal calls he has received. Neither the White House switchboard nor the call-in phone line to leave recorded comments is functioning because of the government shutdown. “We apologize, but due to the lapse in federal funding, we are unable to take your call,” a recorded message on the switchboard states.

I can understand that. Doesn't everybody have Dennison's private phone number

Quote

Just 35 percent of those surveyed supported including money for the wall in a federal spending bill, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 2,440 adults conducted online Dec. 21-25.

More than two-thirds of Americans don’t think the wall should be a priority, according to a poll of 1,075 adults by NPR, PBS News Hour and Marist. That poll was conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 4 using live telephone interviews to reach both landlines and cell phones.

As we have seen since day 1, Dennison's idea of the USA is the 35-40% of the population that supports him.

[barmar]

 johnu, on 2019-January-03, 23:55, said:

As we have seen since day 1, Dennison's idea of the USA is the 35-40% of the population that supports him.

Well, he keeps going back and forth on on equating border security with border wall.

Probably a decent number are in favor of border security. And when it suits Trump's purpose, he translates that to wanting a wall.

[barmar]

I heard this tidbit last night on "Marketplace". The part of the IRS that collects taxes is considered essential, so they're still working (although not being paid); so are auditors and criminal investigators. The part that sends out refunds, on the other hand, is not, so they're furloughed by the shutdown. So are the people who answer taxpayer questions.

[Winstonm]

Now we are in for it.

Quote

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg on Friday that December's strong jobs report was more evidence that there is no "recession in sight," despite a "gloomy" period for the stock market.

Quote

Kudlow wrote on Dec. 7, 2007, in National Review, predicting that gloomy forecasters would “wind up with egg on their faces.” Kudlow, who previously derided as “bubbleheads” those who warned about a housing bubble, now wrote that “very positive” news in housing should “cushion” falling home sales and prices.

“There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen,” wrote Kudlow. “ . . . The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.”

!!!!!!

[jjbrr]

Quote

And women, sitting in the back of the van or car, tape on their mouths, and they drive their van or car, they get off the road and they drive out into the desert and they make a left turn - usually a left turn, not a right - because in areas of San Diego we finished brand new walls - steel walls - and they wanted it badly - I said let's not do it in California, because of their governors, their governors always complaining - so we built a brand new wall, and it's doing really well, it's incredible how well it works - but these coyotes, these traffickers, they make a right turn, they go as far as the wall is, and then they make a left, WELCOME TO THE UNITED STATES, and what they do, usually with women, sometimes, children, that they're trafficking with, you don't want to know about, so the only way to stop that is to have a solid steel structure, whether it's a wall or something powerful.

[kenberg]

 barmar, on 2019-January-04, 09:54, said:

I heard this tidbit last night on "Marketplace". The part of the IRS that collects taxes is considered essential, so they're still working (although not being paid); so are auditors and criminal investigators. The part that sends out refunds, on the other hand, is not, so they're furloughed by the shutdown. So are the people who answer taxpayer questions.

Yes, I wasn't listening to Marketplace but I heard the same. We have a friend who is now about 70, living on her own, a retired high school teacher. She has an accountant who handles her finances and somehow something with her taxes was done in error. No scam, no attempt at doing anything tricky, just an error. The accountant is, or I guess was, fixing this. Our friend has anxiety issues, and believe me this is not doing her any good. I don't doubt that it will get straightened out, but sooner would be a lot better than later.

Becky and I lead a pretty simple life, as does our friend, but it is stunning how quickly something can intrude on peace of mind.

I think my strongest emotional reaction, just for myself, to this shutdown is embarrassment. We are supposed to be better than this.

[y66]

From It’s time for Democrats to be the grownups voters want by Dana Milbank at WaPo:

Quote

I watched from the House gallery Thursday afternoon when the Democrats’ socialist sensation, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in suffragist white, rose to announce her vote for speaker.

“Nancy Pelosi,” the 29-year-old firebrand declared.

From the Republican backbenches came boos and derisive groans.

Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) later complained about being singled out. “Over 200 members voted for Nancy Pelosi today, yet the GOP only booed one: me,” she tweeted. “Don’t hate me cause you ain’t me, fellas.”

Actually, the Republicans love Ocasio-Cortez, in the same way Democrats love Mark Meadows and others in the Republicans’ far-right Freedom Caucus. They hate her politics, but they hope the young representative will sow division among Democrats. They were booing her because, this time, she didn’t.

The decision by Ocasio-Cortez and others on the far left about whether to work with or against their party will determine the fate of the new majority and of the resurgent progressive movement. The Democrats’ return to power after wandering in the wilderness for eight years — and 20 of the past 24 — holds both great promise and great peril for them.

If they can stay unified, they will be an effective counterweight to the Trump lunacy, establishing the Democrats as the party to be entrusted with governing. But if they are split by internal divisions, they could become an easy foil for President Trump, lose suburban seats that gave them the House majority and possibly hand Trump a second term.

The country is on fire. This is the time for Democrats to be the grown-ups voters want.

It’s not the time for Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), mere hours after being sworn in, to tell a cheering crowd that “we’re gonna impeach the mother------.”

It’s not the time for Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), without waiting for the Mueller report, to announce plans to introduce articles of impeachment against Trump.

Progressives aren’t solely to blame. Even after a rebellion by moderates got Pelosi to accept leadership term limits, 15 Democrats refused to vote for her on the floor — including freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew (N.J.).

“No,” he called out when the clerk asked for whom he was voting.

Dr. No?

Because “No” is not a person. Van Drew’s vote — dissent for the sake of dissent — was switched to “present.”

At the fulcrum between Democratic unity and division is Ocasio-Cortez, a social media sensation who has endured hysterical attacks from the right (most recently a leaked video of her dancing in college).

A few hours after her vote for Pelosi, Ocasio-Cortez swung the other way on the first substantive vote: She opposed a resolution setting out new House rules, painstakingly negotiated by the entire Democratic caucus.

Her objection: a bit of accounting arcana known as “paygo.” She accused her Democratic colleagues of “a dark political maneuver designed to hamstring progress” on health care and other legislation. The passionate dissent was curious, given that the proposed rule is already current law, was a significant improvement over the Republican rule and, anyway, is routinely disregarded. Only two Democrats joined her rebellion.

Ocasio-Cortez has become known for such stands. She joined a sit-in at Pelosi’s office demanding a select committee on climate change — though Pelosi had said two weeks earlier that she favored such a committee.

Later, Politico reported that Ocasio-Cortez was seeking a 2020 primary challenger to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), a popular African American progressive and House leader. She denied it.

She and other left-wing newcomers can have a salutary effect. Their protest over lobbyists’ presence at an unofficial orientation at Harvard for new members led to a rethinking of the event. Their advocacy for Medicare-for-all health coverage has nudged Pelosi to accept hearings.

But now comes decision time. Will Ocasio-Cortez and fellow hard-liners become the left’s version of the Freedom Caucus? Will they object to H.R. 1, the Democrats’ ethics and voting-rights package, because it doesn’t go far enough in banning corporate money? Will they withhold support for bills unless they can force votes on Medicare-for-all and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement? Or will the firebrands build support for their causes without forcing vulnerable colleagues to cast suicidal votes on bills that won’t become law?

Democratic unity is what gives them the upper hand in the shutdown battle, as some Republicans openly question Trump’s strategy. Democratic unity also allows them to appeal to the large majority of Americans disgusted with Trump, as Pelosi did during her acceptance speech, uttering “bipartisan” seven times, praising George H.W. Bush and approvingly quoting Ronald Reagan on immigration.

There was silence on the Republican side, now a shrunken sea of old white men. “You don’t applaud for Ronald Reagan? ” Pelosi taunted.

A disastrous presidency has given progressives an extraordinary opportunity — if they don’t blow it by fighting among themselves.