Cyberyeti, on 2014-April-10, 10:08, said:
I don't understand your odds, the chance of hearts with one loser is 1 - (0 losers + 2 losers). This is 100 - (57 + 5) = 38%
The chance of no diamond loser once you know there's a heart loser is Kx/KJ onside + Kxx onside (as you'll play small to the Q) which is half the 2-2 breaks + 1/8 of the 3-1s which is 26.5%
So your chances when there's a trump loser add 10% not 2% so I get 53.5%. This is actually slightly modified by the fact that length in 1 suit modifies the chances of length in the other, but I don't see this making much difference in this case.
The major chance of a helpful lead is a stiff diamond allowing you to pick up KJx
Sorry very careless of me.
Chance of zero heart losers = 58%
Then play A diamonds first and you only lose 2 tricks when KJx or KJxx is offside = 17%
Combined chance = 58 * (100-17) = 48%
i diiffer from you here. I think you may have included stiff K♦ offside as a losing play
Chance of 1 heart loser = 37%
Then take diamond finesse which succeeds 26.5% of the time.
Combined chance = 37* 0.26 = 10%.
Overall chance of making = 48 +10 = 58%
This as you say assumes no asymetric effect of the other suits which I trust as you say is very small and for me much too complicated to work out.
I hope this is correct now. If so 58% turns out to be not a bad slam after all.