Zelandakh, on 2013-December-11, 04:57, said:
I realise you are a much better cardplayer than me cherdano but I am confused by your saying we do not have entries for 2 spade ruffs. It does mean blocking the diamonds (using honour on honour as an entry) but I was quite up front about needing 3-3 diamonds rather than 4-2 with length by the ♣Q - it is not like we need the fourth diamond trick if spades come in. Even if we decide that 2 finesses are better odds, something I offered as a possibility, going for the heart finesse rather than spades seems a little bit like an unlucky expert play to me. Sure the auction screams aggressive lead to you but perhaps I play against I/A players a little more than you do because they just do not lead from king-empty against strong hands often, regardless of the auction. Therefore, in this forum I am confident that the heart finesse is not the right play.
I don't think you should worry about the spades 5-3 at all if you don't take the heart finesse.
Line 1 (Zel's)
Makes when spades are 5-3/6-2/7-1 with the K dropping or (diamonds are 3-3 unless spades are 6-2 with the K in the long hand and you get overruffed on the third spade)
Line 2
Ace of spades, ruff a spade and bang out diamonds if the K
♠ hasn't dropped. Makes when diamonds are 3-3 or K
♠ drops in 2 or diamonds are 4-2/5-1 with the long trump with the long diamonds.
Line 1:
Spades 5-3 = 47.12 x3/8 for K dropping = 17.67
Spades 6-2 = 17.14 x1/4 for K dropping = 4.29
Spades 7-1 = 2.86 x1/8 for K dropping = 0.36
So the spades come in 22.32% of the time
Diamonds 3-3 = 35.53, but if spades are 6-2 with the short spades and long trump over the clubs this doesn't help, if I've calculated this correctly, this happens 4.57% of that time so the 35.53 goes down to 33.50%.
22.32% + (77.68% x 33.50%) = 48.35%
Line 2:
As above, spades 6-2 or 7-1 with the K dropping = 4.65%, diamonds 3-3 = 35.53%
Additionally:
Diamonds 4-2 with the 4 with the 3 trumps = 21.28%
Diamonds 5-1 with the 5 with the 3 trumps = 5.11%
So we get 4.65% + (95.35% x 61.92%) = 63.69%
I've ignored some very low percentage possibilities most of which affect both lines, but I think the calculations differ by enough to show that ruffing the third spade is not a winner unless there's a big hole in my calculations.
Edit: Cherdano posted while I was typing this up
Additional edit: I should point out these odds are after playing A
♥ and the 2 top clubs leaving only the Q missing