[rduran1216]

Can Someone run a simulation for me, and get opinions on this opening lead problem. MPs

Qx KJ109xx xx Axx

1c 1H x p 2NT all pass.

Your lead?

[rogerclee]

I think not leading the HK is pretty bad.

[gnasher]

It's not hard to imagine a layout where leading ♥K lets the contract through. If the heart suit is xx-xx-AQx around the table, and partner and I have one entry each, ♥K lead allows declarer to hold up effectively, whereas ♥J forces him to win the first trick.

[ahydra]

rogerclee, on 2013-October-16, 01:03, said:

I think not leading the HK is pretty bad.

Why the King, and not the more standard Jack from this position (retaining the finesse position over declarer, as gnasher said)?

Of course, in gnasher's theoretical scenario if declarer ducks once and is confident of guessing which entry we have, we're forced to switch, but declarer might not be able to risk his contract like that.

ahydra

[gnasher]

The point of leading the king is to pin a singleton queen, either in dummy or in partner's hand.

[rduran1216]

I think the issue for me is that this is pairs. In teams HK is obvious. But isn't it likely RHO has AQx of hearts and we are gift-wrapping a 9th/10th trick for no reason?

[gnasher]

rduran1216, on 2013-October-16, 10:35, said:

I think the issue for me is that this is pairs. In teams HK is obvious. But isn't it likely RHO has AQx of hearts and we are gift-wrapping a 9th/10th trick for no reason?

Trying to hold them to 120 or 150 doesn't sound like a winning matchpoint strategy. Surely our chances of beating this are quite good? Partner is marked with a six-count or so. If one of those is a winner, we can hope for at least six tricks just by leading our long suit.

[rduran1216]

gnasher, on 2013-October-16, 10:59, said:

Trying to hold them to 120 or 150 doesn't sound like a winning matchpoint strategy. Surely our chances of beating this are quite good? Partner is marked with a six-count or so. If one of those is a winner, we can hope for at least six tricks just by leading our long suit.

Partner has 6 and didn't raise hearts, isn't declarer going after clubs first? partner may get in, but by then is he likely to hold a heart?

If partner has a heart honor we are beating this, idk I think it's more likely his values are in a pointed suit given the auction, was why I was curious to see a simulation.