[Trumpace]

 billw55, on 2013-October-04, 07:12, said:

Yes.

I was expecting his most attractive lead from a minor suit. A singleton is a very attractive lead. Was it Garozzo who said "if I didn't lead it, it's not a singleton"?

I think a club lead is very likely (which you don't seem be taking into account). So what you say does not convince me.

Anyway... I guess broze must be uncomfortably brimming with pity by now, so I will shut up

[ahydra]

This looks pretty simple, so I must be missing something.

Suppose there is a trump loser (e.g. JTxx with one hand). If we go up with the Ace and draw 3 rounds of trumps, we can now get a diamond loser away on the hearts. (Contract's still not cold though - it requires that hearts are 3-3 or 4-2 with the long trump hand having the four hearts, or clubs are 3-3) But if we finesse first and it loses, we are instantly one off.

And of course, we are instantly one off if there is a club ruff.

As a table, assuming clubs not 3-3, hearts 4-2 (with the long hearts with the long trumps, if any):
If we win Ace:
- and trumps don't break, we make
- and trumps break, we make +1

If we finesse, and it wins (twice):
- and trumps don't break, result is +1
- and trumps break, result is +2

If we finesse, and it loses:
- and trumps don't break, we are -1
- and trumps break, but a club ruff occurs, we are -1
- and trumps break and no club ruff occurs, result is =

So, to guarantee the contract we should play the Ace. It is true that if we finesse first and it wins, we make an overtrick, or maybe two overtricks. But this is teams, so who cares?

ahydra

[Trumpace]

 ahydra, on 2013-October-07, 09:19, said:

This looks pretty simple, so I must be missing something.

Suppose there is a trump loser (e.g. JTxx with one hand). If we go up with the Ace and draw 3 rounds of trumps, we can now get a diamond loser away on the hearts. (Contract's still not cold though - it requires that hearts are 3-3 or 4-2 with the long trump hand having the four hearts, or clubs are 3-3) But if we finesse first and it loses, we are instantly one off.

I promised to keep my mouth shut, but...

We cannot cater to clubs 3-3 as the club suit is blocked. 3rd heart ruffed, diamonds, which you ruff. Club won with K and another diamond. Now you are shut out from the 4th club.
(I mentioned that earlier in some post, I guess it was easy to miss. Sorry).

4-2 hearts with long trumps having long hearts will give his partner 10 minor suit cards. Perhaps he would have bid something, or maybe not.

 ahydra, on 2013-October-07, 09:19, said:

<snip>

So, to guarantee the contract we should play the Ace. It is true that if we finesse first and it wins, we make an overtrick, or maybe two overtricks. But this is teams, so who cares?

ahydra

"guarantee" is a strong word btw, the discussion was never about overtricks. I don't see anyone other than you talking about it