[rpkelly]

I'm just returning back to the game after a 25 year absence when I picked up:

♠Axx
♥AKQJxxx
♦x
♣Ax

Contract is 6♥ and dummy comes down with:

♠Qxx
♥xxx
♦AK10
♣Qxxx

Open lead: small diamond

My thinking is that the diamond lead killed any squeeze chances so I focused on the black kings. If the spade king was onside I could make it and figured that was 50% If both kings were on my left that was the same 50/50. If LHO had the club king and RHO the spade king, I couldn't see how to be successful. If both kings were on my right, a 25%? chance,I could do a throw-in. I also had to consider if hearts broke 3-0 I would not have another dummy entry after the first trick.

I thought the 50/50 spade king on my left represented the best chance so I took the top diamonds and pitched a club and eventually lost two tricks when both kings showed up on my right and the throw-in strategy would have been successful unless a crafty defender bared a king and I didn't figure it out.

Of course, the local cast of experts concluded they would have all played for both kings to be in one hand and I didn't give myself the best chance.

Thoughts?

[Endymion77]

Throw the club loser, draw trump, try the CA to see if the CK would fall singleton (if hearts are 2-1) and then play for the SK to be onside.

[Fluffy]

the lead suggests kings are onside not the other way.

[nige1]

rpkelly, on 2013-September-17, 04:37, said:

♠ Q x x
♥ x x x
♦ A K T
♣ Q x x x

♠ A x x
♥ A K Q J x x x
♦ x
♣ A x

Open lead: small diamond

Endymion77, on 2013-September-17, 04:48, said:

Throw the club loser, draw trump, try the CA to see if the CK would fall singleton (if hearts are 2-1) and then play for the SK to be onside.

Tiny extra chance when RHO has less than 3 ♥, ♣K, and doubleton ♠K: After ♦ AK , ruff a ♦ high.

[gszes]

I am unsure what kind of end position you local experts were imagining when the throw
in idea appeared. let us assume you have reduced the hands to the following

Axx
x
void
A


Qxx
void
void
Qx


It does not matter what type of end position u imagine there is no realistic
chance of any throw in position. Your hand will not have the exit card it
needs to take advantage of any strangulation of rho that manages to appear.

The hand may indeed (and probably is) impossible to make if rho holds both kings
so that holding should be discounted and it turns out the LOP you chose playing
rho for the spade K along with (nige1) trying to drop the club K singleton when trumps
are 21 is the best way to go.

[manudude03]

Someone holding 2 specific cards is slightly less than 50% (48%), while the finesse is 50%.

gsze, I think the "experts" are talking about throwing a spade on the diamonds, so that your hand has Ax in both black suits.

[rhm]

gszes, on 2013-September-17, 20:08, said:

The hand may indeed (and probably is) impossible to make if rho holds both kings

You can take the additional chance that trumps are 2-1 and RHO has ♠Kx.
Play three rounds of diamonds discarding your club loser and ruff the third diamond high.
Now draw trumps and cash the club ace.
Finally play spade ace and spade to the queen.
Now if RHO is left with spade Kx he might be end-played.

Rainer Herrmann

[rpkelly]

The "experts" pointed out that when RHO has both kings you come down to Ax in spades and clubs and then Ace and another in one of the suits is the endplay. I pointed out that if I was defending the end position could easily be seen and would bare a king early in my discards and play for a wrong guess by declarer. Hearts were indeed 3-0.

[cherdano]

rpkelly, on 2013-September-18, 05:11, said:

The "experts" pointed out that when RHO has both kings you come down to Ax in spades and clubs and then Ace and another in one of the suits is the endplay. I pointed out that if I was defending the end position could easily be seen and would bare a king early in my discards and play for a wrong guess by declarer. Hearts were indeed 3-0.

So if they always guess right, they are playing for a 48% chance (both kings in the same hand) rather than a 50% chance (♠K onside). I presume they are guessing shapes correctly 110% of the time.