[Zelandakh]

You seem to have missed the point. What you need to discover is the % of time when we open a Muiderberg 2M that we play in a 7 card fit at the 3 level, which was the scenario you were lecturing us about. Not only does your last post answer a completely different question, it also gives contradictory numbers (combined 3.28% when the post before gives % of Muiderberg hands as 2.80%). Now I am sure the numbers are all correct and everything but unless you can explain them clearly they are meaningless. This is why I suggest you switch to conditional probabilities for Muiderberg openings. Because I have no idea how often you think we are playing 2M and how often 3m based on your statistics. Nor the percentages for 7, 8 and 9+ card fits. Nor the expected number of tricks. In fact, I cannot find any meaningful information anywhere despite the forceful conclusions you are deriving from the numbers.

[MrAce]

32519, on 2013-July-09, 07:37, said:

.................no one has yet convinced me that I'm wrong!

I thought...

In order to try to convince you that you are wrong, one has to convince himself that you are convincable....Na.. i don't think anyone who has seen your ignorance and who has seen that you are wrong in so many things, in this topic as well as in the past, will ever gonna waste his/her time for this.

But looking at the replies, obviously i was wrong.

[barmar]

Trinidad, on 2013-July-10, 16:46, said:

The fact that the WBF allows an abbreviation for Stayman as an explanation on its CCs indicates that they consider 'Stayman' to be an appropriate description (at least for CC purposes). Seen in that light it isn't that strange that an NBO allows players to explain some of the most popular conventions by their name, even if it is a big no-no in the ACBL.

Allowing a shorthand on the CC does not necessarily mean that just naming the convention is adequate disclosure. The ACBL convention card is full of checkboxes for common conventions and treatments, but ACBL Alert Procedures says that when someone asks for an explanation you must describe the meaning, NOT just name a convention. The point is that a CC and an explanation are different -- there isn't room on a piece of paper for detailed explanations, the CC is just a summary.

[Wackojack]

Since I play Muiderberg with 1 regular partner, I thought I would do a quick and admittedly rough check on the perils of finding that you have to play in a 4-3 minor fit at the 3 level. In Playbridge I specified 1 hand to be ♠A10965; ♥ 8; ♦J86; ♣Q1098. This was meant to show a typical absolute weakest hand that he might open 2♠ vulnerable. This (just) breaks the criteria (7 points in the long suits vul)that we agreed but I know what my partner is like. The opposite hand I gave 6-11 points any distribution. 32 deals.
When this hand is dealt a singleton spade, I judged that you would respond 3♣ pass or correct.

Results:
4-4 came up twice and 4-3 twice.
Of the 4-3's
1. Opps had 3NT game on and unlikely to go for a penalty even at green.
2. Opps had part score and 4-3 fit goes 2 off.

Otherwise I dont see any obvious (possible) bad results. I don't have time to analyse the possible good results.

[campboy]

32519, on 2013-July-10, 22:56, said:

4. Exactly 5M7m 5-10 HCP = ?
5. Exactly 5M8m 5-10 HCP = ?

The last two are so remote that BBOs deal generator fails to spit out a probability percentage.

This is another reason not to use simulations when you don't have to. The probability of a random hand having exactly 5 spades and 7 clubs and 5-10 HCP is 1 in 22340. For 8 clubs it is 1 in 757204.

[hrothgar]

campboy, on 2013-July-13, 03:37, said:

This is another reason not to use simulations when you don't have to. The probability of a random hand having exactly 5 spades and 7 clubs and 5-10 HCP is 1 in 22340. For 8 clubs it is 1 in 757204.

When brute force doesn't work, this is usually a sign that you need to apply more brute force...

[32519]

Now here's a thought.
The trend is towards a Weak Only Multi, 5-9 HCP. The 2♥ and 2♠ bids being used for a sound weak 2 in the suit, 10-13 HCP. Stated differently, the trend is away from Muiderberg.

[hrothgar]

32519, on 2013-July-24, 10:36, said:

Now here's a thought.
The trend is towards a Weak Only Multi, 5-9 HCP. The 2♥ and 2♠ bids being used for a sound weak 2 in the suit, 10-13 HCP. Stated differently, the trend is away from Muiderberg.

The expression "thought" suggests that "thinking" took place, so this hardly seems like an appropriate description...
Rather, this is an example of an anecdote from another thread being confounded with the posters own biases and used to claim a trend.

If you want to contribute something of actual value, why not go to ECATs and record the what the 2D and 2M opening bids showed over time.
(I collated this information for a few years, you can probably find this information)

Once you've collected an adequate time series - and compensated for geographic effects - you might be able to make a few founded claim that there is/ is not a "trend"

[PhilKing]

32519, on 2013-July-24, 10:36, said:

thought.

The "trend" is purely a function of how many English posters who happen to use constructive weak twos post on BBO.

Visit a Dutch bridge club and you would doubtless draw an entirely different false conclusion.

[Free]

32519, on 2013-July-24, 10:36, said:

The trend is towards a Weak Only Multi, 5-9 HCP.

LOL

[32519]

Exactly how many wannabees do you think copy whatever Fantoni/Nunes do? Here is a link to their Convention Card. Amuse yourself and have a look at how they describe their 2♥ and 2♠ bids. Sure it's not Muiderberg, but it does say 10-13 HCP unbalanced, 5+ in the suit. So if it's exactly 5 and unbalanced, presumeably there are 4 cards in a minor suit.

[PhilKing]

32519, on 2013-July-25, 02:28, said:

Exactly how many wannabees do you think copy whatever Fantoni/Nunes do? Here is a link to their Convention Card. Amuse yourself and have a look at how they describe their 2♥ and 2♠ bids. Sure it's not Muiderberg, but it does say 10-13 HCP unbalanced, 5+ in the suit. So if it's exactly 5 and unbalanced, presumeably there are 4 cards in a minor suit.

I doubt they dare do it without 5-5.

[helene_t]

32519, on 2013-July-25, 02:28, said:

[...] Fantoni/Nunes do [...] So if it's exactly 5 [....]

yes, and if pigs could fly ....

[blackshoe]

Pigs fly in the same way everyone else does - on an airplane. I know this is true, I saw it in a TV ad.

[32519]

PhilKing, on 2013-July-25, 02:47, said:

I doubt they dare do it without 5-5.

Hmmm, some more wisdom from the forum. We are talking here about the players ranked number 1 and 2 in the world. These guys have upped the HCP value to 10-13 versus the wisdom of the forum who still insists on 5-10 HCP with a hand which could be 5M4m. I rest my case.

When it's a 6-card card major, it's still 10-13 HCP. These guys don't waste time with stuff like Garbage Multi.

[gwnn]

32519, on 2013-July-25, 04:12, said:

I rest my case.

Sounds good to me!

[Free]

32519, on 2013-July-25, 02:28, said:

Exactly how many wannabees do you think copy whatever Fantoni/Nunes do? Here is a link to their Convention Card. Amuse yourself and have a look at how they describe their 2♥ and 2♠ bids. Sure it's not Muiderberg, but it does say 10-13 HCP unbalanced, 5+ in the suit. So if it's exactly 5 and unbalanced, presumeably there are 4 cards in a minor suit.

I don't see the relevance of Fantunes here (it's a completely different opening) nor do I see what you're getting at. You might as well compare a Muiderberg to a Lorenzo two (0-7HCP 4+X Majors first) and say that IF you have 6-7 HCP AND a 5 card M AND a 4 card m, then ... what's your point exactly?

Oh, and how about if they open 2♠ on a 5=5=2=1? Even when they add up ALL their minor suit cards they don't get to 4...

[Free]

32519, on 2013-July-25, 04:12, said:

Hmmm, some more wisdom from the forum. We are talking here about the players ranked number 1 and 2 in the world. These guys have upped the HCP value to 10-13 versus the wisdom of the forum who still insists on 5-10 HCP with a hand which could be 5M4m. I rest my case.

When it's a 6-card card major, it's still 10-13 HCP. These guys don't waste time with stuff like Garbage Multi.

This is the most stupid posts I've ever read on this forum, because it's wrong on so many levels. You only prove one thing: stupidity has no boundaries. Have you ever seen them play these 2M openings with a weaker range? Get your facts straight dude, they haven't upped anything!

The facts are that they've designed an entire system where they don't need an artificial strong opening, and instead can open any strong hand natural and at the 1-level to optimize information transfer for slam bidding. Every 1-level opening shows 14+HCP to make it playable (12+ would be too wide range), and everything else is designed to fill gaps in their system. They can't just pass with every 0-13HCP hand, so they've decided to play a weak NT and constructive 2-level openings to cover hands with around 10-13HCP and comply to system regulations (otherwise they might be playing a HUM).

[the hog]

Free, on 2013-July-25, 05:41, said:

This is the most stupid posts I've ever read on this forum, because it's wrong on so many levels. You only prove one thing: stupidity has no boundaries. Have you ever seen them play these 2M openings with a weaker range? Get your facts straight dude, they haven't upped anything!

The facts are that they've designed an entire system where they don't need an artificial strong opening, and instead can open any strong hand natural and at the 1-level to optimize information transfer for slam bidding. Every 1-level opening shows 14+HCP to make it playable (12+ would be too wide range), and everything else is designed to fill gaps in their system. They can't just pass with every 0-13HCP hand, so they've decided to play a weak NT and constructive 2-level openings to cover hands with around 10-13HCP and comply to system regulations (otherwise they might be playing a HUM).

Clearly such logic is beyond the comprehension of the numeric one, Frederick.
If you want to argue even more, numeric one, ask yourself how many world class players play Fantunes. I know of only one other pair who have represented their country who play Looney Tunes as they call it and they are Australian. Then ask yourself "why"?

[32519]

Free, on 2013-July-25, 05:41, said:

This is the most stupid posts I've ever read on this forum, because it's wrong on so many levels. You only prove one thing: stupidity has no boundaries. Have you ever seen them play these 2M openings with a weaker range? Get your facts straight dude, they haven't upped anything!

The facts are that they've designed an entire system where they don't need an artificial strong opening, and instead can open any strong hand natural and at the 1-level to optimize information transfer for slam bidding. Every 1-level opening shows 14+HCP to make it playable (12+ would be too wide range), and everything else is designed to fill gaps in their system. They can't just pass with every 0-13HCP hand, so they've decided to play a weak NT and constructive 2-level openings to cover hands with around 10-13HCP and comply to system regulations (otherwise they might be playing a HUM).

Seems like you never read the CC properly. So I’ll help you with some extracts –
1C = 14+ (good 12/13)
1D = 14+ (good 12/13)
1H = 14+ (good 12/13) 5+ H OR 11-13 with 5+ H and 4S
1S = 14+ (good 12/13) 5+ S OR 11-13 with 5+ S and 4H

32519, on 2013-July-25, 02:28, said:

Exactly how many wannabees do you think copy whatever Fantoni/Nunes do? Here is a link to their Convention Card. Amuse yourself and have a look at how they describe their 2♥ and 2♠ bids. Sure it's not Muiderberg, but it does say 10-13 HCP unbalanced, 5+ in the suit. So if it's exactly 5 and unbalanced, presumably there are 4 cards in a minor suit.

Free, on 2013-July-25, 05:25, said:

I don't see the relevance of Fantunes here (it's a completely different opening) nor do I see what you're getting at.

What am I getting at?
With 5+ H and 4S, 11-13 HCP, they open 1H
With 5+S and 4H, 11-13 HCP, they open 1S
With a 5-card major and a 4-card minor, 10-13 HCP, they open 2 of the major

Free, on 2013-July-25, 05:25, said:

Oh, and how about if they open 2♠ on a 5=5=2=1? Even when they add up ALL their minor suit cards they don't get to 4...

See above. Clearly you never read the CC before posting this. It will never be 5521 as you suggested.
What am I getting at?
The number 1 and 2 ranked players in the world play sound 2H and 2S openings with unbalanced hands, whether that is a 6-card suit or 5M4m. They allow lesser mortals to make silly pre-empts (Garbage Multi/Muiderberg) and then extract favourable penalty doubles from them or make thin games because the hand layout and HCP distribution has been gifted to them.

Why all the venom that is continuously being spat out? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that an intermediate is challenging the logic behind your favourite convention(s)? There has been a lot of interest in many of these types of threads. So until I start the next one……cheers!