ggwhiz, on 2013-July-07, 18:06, said:
Or Q from QJ. I'm ducking on a and b strongly suspecting that the trump shortage is with the 5♥ bidder and it looks to be the only way to keep lho off lead for the dreaded diamond shift if that's the case.
If lho was inspired enough to play the K from KJ, I'm buying them a beer.
When Q is played and you put Q stiff and QJ doubleton probability in a fight, Q stiff wins. Possibilities are same but the preference of the player in which order he would play QJ doubleton diminishes the chances of QJ tide. And there is KQ tide side of this story too.
If you re read what i wrote, you will see that
even if we agreed to totally disregard the behaviours of how one plays QJ tide, they will (Q stiff and QJ tide) will equal each other and we will come down to what to do for our best interest if Q was from KQ.
Anyway;
If you are wrong (Q isstiff) you are down.
If i am wrong (QJ tide) i still have an out (QJ tide+ 4clubs with W)
If KQ tide, you are down, again, while i have the same out (KQ + 4 clubs by W)
It is very hard to tell from this bidding who is short in hearts. E may as well be short in clubs. He did not bid 5
♦ before he bid 5
♥, perhaps he doesn't have Q of
♦ next to his A. His pd promised him nothing but 5 card hearts, yet he is the one who doubled and neither NS nor EW has the hcp ownership of the hand. Can you blame any East player for bidding 5
♥ at these colors when they hold 6 hearts and pd said he has at least 5 of them ? I don't think he needs a specific reason, such as holding stiff in only spade suit, in order to bid a 5
♥ . He is the one who doubled though, telling his pd not to bid any further, no ? Which tricks did he rely on for defeating 5
♠ ? I am not saying he can not be short, but i think it is not as clear as you think it is, just because he bid 5
♥.