Posted 2013-July-08, 08:53
There are a lot of things that could go wrong.
I win the diamond and cash the heart A.
I will rethink if someone shows out, but I can't take the time nor would anyone want to read an effort to cater to 5-0 and 0-5 trump at this stage.
I play a club to my hand and a spade up. I ruff a spade low....overruffing rho is he shows out and ruffs in.
I reserve the right to rethink of LHO overruffs.
Assuming the spade ruff wins, I play a diamond to dummy.
I think I am fine if LHO ruffs: I don't think he can beat me now. If RHO ruffs, again I reserve the right to rethink: for one thing, what does he play back?
So long as everything has stood up so far, I play a second club towards my hand. RHO can't hurt me should he ruff in....even if he then lays down a high spade, I'm ok I think. I can ruff with the 10 and if it gets overruffed, trump were breaking and I can eventually just concede a spade, losing 2 ruffs and a spade.
If LHO ruffs, again I get a rethink.
If all stands up to this point, I have 1 trump, 1 spade and a ruff and 4 minor tops, for 7 winners. I cash the heart K for my 8th trick. If hearts have behaved, I simply draw the last trump, making my small heart in dummy good.
If hearts are 4-1, then I am cold anyway.
If LHO had the length, I lead a minor: if I ruff low, I now have 10 tricks, and may be able to score 11 if I can ruff a spade without being overruffed. If he ruffs the minor, I overruff and ruff a spade...and again make 10 or 11 tricks.
If RHO had the length, I ruff a minor with the Q and lead a spade, guaranteeing the 10 of trump will score a trick.
All of this is a bit convoluted and it wouldn't surprise me to find there is a safer line. I do think that one should always try to lead towards an AKx(x) holding rather than laying down the AK, just in case a ruff is looming in front of our honours. I also think that one should generally cash a high trump, even when not intending to play a second. Not only will we have a chance to rethink should trump be 5-0/0-5, but we eliminate the always annoying ruff with a stiff trump. Not likely, of course, but where's the cost in catering to it?
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari