[JLOGIC]

 mfa1010, on 2013-May-13, 16:30, said:

I take the sure plus (famous last words).

Good luck with that!

Seriously though, I would expect partner to reopen X very aggressively with a heart void and think those hands might produce a double game swing. With a stiff heart it is probably a sure plus but you never know. If the opps only have 10 hearts, they presumably have only 18 high at most so I would not be surprised to see some shape. If that happens to come in the form of a diamond void that is bad for our sure plus. Even a stiff diamond opposite a stiff club in the other hand could be very bad for us (not that opener has to have a stiff but it's still scary, and if he opened light vul he is more likely to have shape even though he could just have a normal 11 or 12 or 13 count obv).

[mfa1010]

 JLOGIC, on 2013-May-14, 10:02, said:

Good luck with that!

Seriously though, I would expect partner to reopen X very aggressively with a heart void and think those hands might produce a double game swing. With a stiff heart it is probably a sure plus but you never know. If the opps only have 10 hearts, they presumably have only 18 high at most so I would not be surprised to see some shape. If that happens to come in the form of a diamond void that is bad for our sure plus. Even a stiff diamond opposite a stiff club in the other hand could be very bad for us (not that opener has to have a stiff but it's still scary, and if he opened light vul he is more likely to have shape even though he could just have a normal 11 or 12 or 13 count obv).

I agree I can't know, and pass will concede 790 with a significant frequency. On the other hand if both sides go down pass is not just a small but a huge imp-winner. +200 at both tables = 9 imps etc. It probably matters a great deal how aggressive the opponents are (= how often we will catch them with flattish hands). It is a very tough problem in my view.

I could see myself double 4♥ with 5233 16-17 if the values are sharp (aces etc.) as a battlefield decision. With 6-0 in the majors partner should be willing to guess 4♠ himself a lot, if his suit is just reasonably good. So there are not that many voids in his range. 5044 is possible, but 5530-hands would have bid Michaels.

[PhilKing]

 mfa1010, on 2013-May-14, 11:35, said:

I could see myself double 4♥ with 5233 16-17 if the values are sharp (aces etc.) as a battlefield decision.

That reminds of General Melchett in Blackadder Goes Forth. He will virtually always think he has the right shape send us over the top.

I think voids are a big part of our range, because with a void we will double back in with almost our whole range, but with a singleton, we need a suitable max.

[mfa1010]

 PhilKing, on 2013-May-14, 11:50, said:

I think voids are a big part of our range, because with a void we will double back in with almost our whole range (...)

That reminds of stories from Donald Duck and the Minus Four Digits.

[rogerclee]

I would pass with some reservations, tough problem. I think I prefer 4N to 4S, 4S seems like taking an IMO antipercentage gamble regarding the quality of partner's spades.

[lesh]

I think partner's DBL mean: I would like to bid 4♠ but I have some defensive values, wheareas 4♠ would be with offence. So it is up to you to decide whether to play 4♥ or 4♠. I wouldn't expect 5044 hand in partner even though it is a possibility.

Either Pass or 4♠ could turn to be right. No other options for me.

[dake50]

I want a spade honour to bid on a doubleton here, so 4NT for me. -- FrancesHinden

*** So you accept 5C on 3-4 fit, missing D:3-5?
Or correcting to 5D missing C:4-4 this time?
I would agree 4Nt if it was sure to find an 8-fit.
But it is a level higher than 4S and no surety of a fit.

[FrancesHinden]

 dake50, on 2013-May-16, 07:02, said:

I want a spade honour to bid on a doubleton here, so 4NT for me. -- FrancesHinden

*** So you accept 5C on 3-4 fit, missing D:3-5?
Or correcting to 5D missing C:4-4 this time?
I would agree 4Nt if it was sure to find an 8-fit.
But it is a level higher than 4S and no surety of a fit.

Yes I know what the risk of bidding 4NT is.
The alternative of playing in 4S with xx opposite AKxxx x Kxxx Axx is also quite frightening.

[JLOGIC]

Yep, maybe that's one of the most attractive things about passing (both 4N and 4S risk getting to the wrong spot by a lot). I still wouldn't do it, but meh, nice problem.

[aguahombre]

 FrancesHinden, on 2013-May-16, 14:14, said:

Yes I know what the risk of bidding 4NT is.
The alternative of playing in 4S with xx opposite AKxxx x Kxxx Axx is also quite frightening.

If my partner had that hand, we wouldn't be playing in 4S, 4HX, 5C, or 5D.

[kfay]

Pass.

I don't expect partner to be be bananas in this position: I'm a passed-hand and everyone's red. I'd be surprised (but not shocked) if they made this. The biggest downside I see is that maybe we miss our game and get only 200. Oh well, at least I'm not playing in a 4-3 fit (clubs) if bid 4NT and partner shows up with 5143 or 6133. Maybe we weren't going to get to that game anyway.

[Free]

4NT for me, 4♠ as a close second. I prefer to have a top honor ♠, but on the other hand you only need 10 tricks, so it's close.

[Winstonm]

4S for me, too.

[Trinidad]

I'm with the passers.

Rik