[Mbodell]

opening lead ♦3

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Best line for 13?

More info:
If you try the J or T it will hold (E plays the 8)
If you play on trump west shows out on first round

[phil_20686]

If trumps are 2-1 I am 100% cold, just ruffing all of dummy's losers (the lead gives me 3 diamonds, two spades, and eight trumps). If trumps are 3-0 it only concerns me if diamonds are 5-1.

I will put in the diamond J. If it is covered, I claim. It if its not covered I play a heart to the K, if both follow I claim. If not, I ruff a club, draw trumps unblock the diamond K cross in spades, cash the diamond ace pitching a club and ruff a diamond. If diamonds are 4-2 I can claim, if they are 5-1 I still have some reasonable squeeze options. The position will be

Ax
-
J
-

x
x
-
K

If anyone has the club ace and five spades i will make. If lho has (basically impossible) the diamond Q i get a positional double squeeze going.

Still, I find it quite unlikely that lho has either Qxxxx or x diamond for his lead, its not very normal to lead a singleton vs a grand. Often just crushes partners slow trick.

[JLOGIC]

Win the king, ruff a club, heart to hand, ruff a club, cash 2 spades, ruff a spade, ruff a club, ruff a spade, claim.

I think this line is ~100 % as if LHO had 6 spades he would have led that, and if LHO had 1 spade and some hearts he would almost surely have led a heart.

[JLOGIC]

phil I think it is much more likely than normal that LHO has 5 diamonds and no hearts on the 3 of diamonds lead. Maybe that is wrong, I'm assuming a trump would be their #1 lead and a long spade or diamond suit would be their #2 lead.

I think this is a great hand because the JT of diamonds are an illusion, without them we would just be playing to ruff 3 clubs WTP.

[phil_20686]

JLOGIC, on 2012-November-04, 07:17, said:

phil I think it is much more likely than normal that LHO has 5 diamonds and no hearts on the 3 of diamonds lead. Maybe that is wrong, I'm assuming a trump would be their #1 lead and a long spade or diamond suit would be their #2 lead.

I think this is a great hand because the JT of diamonds are an illusion, without them we would just be playing to ruff 3 clubs WTP.

Yeah. lho could have all three queens and no trump to lead. All the lines are pretty close to 100%, mine goes off if diamonds 5-1 and trumps are 3-0 and no squeeze, yours goes off if spades are 6-1 even if the trumps are 2-1.

It doesn't seem that much more or less likely that lho is 1336/1246 with three small diamonds and the club ace. There is a school of players like gnasher who never lead trumps vs grands pretty much. My default assumption is that any lead vs a grand is from small cards. xxx or xxxx seems so much more likely than anything else.

I think we have enough top trumps to combine the early stages though. Maybe win the diamond K ruff a club and cross in trumps, and we can reconsider if lho has a trump. I would say if lho has a trump the diamond holding is 100% to be small cards, so then we can play on diamonds?

[JLOGIC]

phil_20686, on 2012-November-04, 09:34, said:

Yeah. lho could have all three queens and no trump to lead. All the lines are pretty close to 100%, mine goes off if diamonds 5-1 and trumps are 3-0 and no squeeze, yours goes off if spades are 6-1 even if the trumps are 2-1.

It doesn't seem that much more or less likely that lho is 1336/1246 with three small diamonds and the club ace. There is a school of players like gnasher who never lead trumps vs grands pretty much. My default assumption is that any lead vs a grand is from small cards. xxx or xxxx seems so much more likely than anything else.

I think we have enough top trumps to combine the early stages though. Maybe win the diamond K ruff a club and cross in trumps, and we can reconsider if lho has a trump. I would say if lho has a trump the diamond holding is 100% to be small cards, so then we can play on diamonds?

I guess I just don't agree. Leading a trump when they've shown a 9+ card fit, all of the A/K/Q for sure, and a void in the shorter trump hand against a grand is normal. I'm probably one of those guys that you're talking about that doesn't auto lead trumps vs grand like most people, this is especially true if they might have an 8 card fit and I have a singleton, or if they have not guaranteed the trump Q with their auction. However, in this specific case a trump is not only known to be 100 % safe, it is known to be constructive (it will stop some ruffs). I think there is a very strong implication on the diamond lead that LHO has no trumps.

If that assumption is correct, then LHO having 3 small diamonds is going to be somewhat unlikely since they would almost certainly prefer to lead a spade if they had 5 since it might give partner a ruff. Likewise, a diamond might be attractive from 5 since it might give partner a ruff. Partner can't really lightner double automatically without the CA and if he has trump length he will probably expect you to find the right lead a lot of the time since you might have no trumps and might have a long suit that is not clubs.

LHO with no trumps would have a good reason to not lead clubs whether he had the CA or not, it might not just set up a trick if it's into like AQ, it will simply help you ruff clubs in dummy which is a very likely line.

Certainly if you agree with my assumptions my line is basically 100 % and your line might be only like 70 % even or something. Of course, you might not agree with my assumptions which is what makes bridge interesting

[JLOGIC]

I think you are putting too much emphasis on a diamond being a negative lead from Qxxxx because they have the Q. Dummy will likely have some diamond length since he has a club void. At worst it gives up a 2 way guess that will likely be guessed if necessary anyways when we show up with a heart void. At best, it gives partner a ruff and/or messes up their communications if partner has a stiff (since they can't cross back in diamonds and might not be able to pull all the trumps) and is somewhat passive. I would think leading a long spade or diamond suit would always be attractive whether or not I had the queen unless it was like QT

[gnasher]

phil_20686, on 2012-November-04, 09:34, said:

There is a school of players like gnasher who never lead trumps vs grands pretty much.

I'm reluctant to lead a trump after a sequence where they haven't bothered to ask about the queen, or haven't been able to. If they've explicitly shown the queen of trumps I may well lead a trump, and probably would do on this auction.

[gnasher]

Another argument for Justin's line is that RHO didn't open 2♠, which he might have done with six spades and a singleton heart.

[phil_20686]

JLOGIC, on 2012-November-04, 10:03, said:

LHO with no trumps would have a good reason to not lead clubs whether he had the CA or not, it might not just set up a trick if it's into like AQ, it will simply help you ruff clubs in dummy which is a very likely line.

Certainly if you agree with my assumptions my line is basically 100 % and your line might be only like 70 % even or something. Of course, you might not agree with my assumptions which is what makes bridge interesting

Just looked at the invisible text

Last time I was given a problem like this lho had underlead the club ace into the void at trick one, and the winning solution was to run it to your K at trick 1. I have been waiting five years for the opportunity to underlead my ace vs a grand.

[JLOGIC]

lol I heard about a hand where someone underled their AK against a slam or a grand of the exclusion suit and they psyched exclusion but their partner had the Q so it didn't matter. Not sure if that is true or not, these things get exaggerated, but still funny.

[Zelandakh]

I think best is to put the ♦10 up to give East a chance to make a mistake and overtake when the queen does not appear in order to ruff 3 clubs as per Justin. Of course this detail would be irrelevant against Justin's opponents!

[Mbodell]

I forgot to post the full hand here. JLOGIC read it right in that the lead was from Q-fifth of diamonds with void hearts. Here was the full hand from the JEC match. Note that the opponents played it in 7♥ and ended up playing for the double squeeze (pointy Ks and a trump opposite the 4th round of spades and AT of diamonds - if you knew you were going for the squeeze you'd still be better to unblock the K on the first round to add a possible diamond finesse to the bag, but then you'd be in the right side to trump 3 times which is near 100% as pointed out on the thread) after they won the first round of diamonds with the J and only roughed twice. If you give E one more spade and one fewer club then the JEC team would have been down 1 and we'd have won the match (we were in 6 making 6 in the other room):

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