[steve2005]

4H -1
above hand adjudicated in bbo express 80% as -1
clearly going to make just have to take ♦ finness.
have no appeal get 30% instead of 70%

[mink]

I looked in myhands and found that this board was really adjusted to 4♥-1. I understand that these adjustments are done be letting robots finish the hand. The only way to go down is afaics that North wins trick 10 with ♥J and then the ♦ finesse is not taken. But in trick 9 the finesse was already taken, so refusing the finesse in trick 11 or 12 this time makes no sense. Does a GIB robot take this into consideration?

Karl

[Antrax]

GIB doesn't necessarily repeat a winning finesse. This is a known issue with how it operates.

[Bbradley62]

This was not "a known winning finesse". Declarer does not know that South doesn't have ♦K.

[mink]

 Bbradley62, on 2012-October-14, 09:03, said:

This was not "a known winning finesse". Declarer does not know that South doesn't have ♦K.

Yes, but for a human it would be poor matchpoint play not to try finesse the K, after a previous finesse has revealed that South had the Q.

[Bbradley62]

 mink, on 2012-October-14, 09:42, said:

Yes, but for a human it would be poor matchpoint play not to try finesse the K, after a previous finesse has revealed that South had the Q.

That is likely true, although I'd be interested in seeing the simulations since South was willing to bid to the 4-level with no help from North... but to call the finesse "marked" or "known winning" is wrong.

[steve2005]

no, not a marked finesse. im playing for split honors and north to have the ten with finessing ten worked on 1st rd of ♦.
also north showed out of ♣ so you know north started with 3♦
and south 2♦. so i think that means north 60% likely to have K
I know GIB doesnt use this type of odds

[Antrax]

 Bbradley62, on 2012-October-14, 09:03, said:

This was not "a known winning finesse". Declarer does not know that South doesn't have ♦K.

You're right, I posted that before looking at the actual hand.

[barmar]

 steve2005, on 2012-October-15, 16:42, said:

no, not a marked finesse. im playing for split honors and north to have the ten with finessing ten worked on 1st rd of ♦.
also north showed out of ♣ so you know north started with 3♦
and south 2♦. so i think that means north 60% likely to have K
I know GIB doesnt use this type of odds

But as BBradley62 said, you also have to account for the fact that South kept bidding. He's only shown up with 7 HCP so far. If the robot doesn't think he'd bid like this with so little, it will give higher odds to him having ♦KQ.