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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#221 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 14:20

View Postbillw55, on 2012-October-03, 14:00, said:

I live in a predominantly rural region. I am quite confident that you are confusing cause and effect. The politicians are pro gun because the people are, not the other way around.

Your confidence is misplaced. I am sure the politicians are pro-gun because the people are. I am also sure that when a rural person claims to be pro-gun, assault weapons are not the guns they are generally concerned with losing access too. The nebulous slippery slope argument of the NRA may have convinced some that they are concerned about them in some abstract sense, but I doubt a significant percentage of rural folk actually own an assault weapon.

Regardless, I don't consider blocking legislation as doing something. What has the Republican party enacted for the rural folk? For the sake of this argument, enacting legislation to repeal something else counts.

Such as
http://ictsd.org/i/n...sweekly/103535/
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#222 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 15:55

View Postkenberg, on 2012-October-03, 05:04, said:

No doubt Republicans favor photo ids for voting because they believe this will work favorably for their candidate. It is naive to believe otherwise.

actually, the reps are putting their eggs in the citizens united basket, coupled with the preponderance of republican governors who are (very quickly) making state employee unions obsolete... with the number of super pacs growing, and the number of unions (and the democrat party campaign coffers the dues support) dropping ... well, do the math

View Postcherdano, on 2012-October-03, 05:33, said:

Democrats want to win by allowing everyone eligible to vote.

and, in some cases, even those not eligible to vote
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#223 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 16:03

View Postluke warm, on 2012-October-03, 15:55, said:

and, in some cases, even those not eligible to vote

Can you point to any such case that any of these laws would have prevented?
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#224 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 16:06

View Postluke warm, on 2012-October-03, 15:55, said:

and, in some cases, even those not eligible to vote

Ignoring for a moment that this issue is so tiny that it has had no impact on any election. There is no evidence that would suggest this issue benefits Democrats more than Republicans, hence your premise that Democrats are against this, for this reason, for political gain is absurd and insulting.
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#225 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 16:30

It is well known that voter fraud is endemic in uk council elections. National elections are much harder because of the scale. A few hundred fake votes can alter a local election, whereas at least five thousand would be needed in the vast majority. Of uk national elections, and many seats are safe by much more than that.
It's well known that voter fraud is more common on small elections, asa it's much easier to have a conspiracy big enough for a few hundred votes, not so easy to get a thousand without raising suspicion.
Voter I'd laws are a good thing generally. Voter fraud may be pretty low now in the us, but there is not guarantee that it will be in the future. Best to get a ahead of the game. It was, I believe, a major problem when the mob still ran Chicago. They a known to have interfered in Chicago mayoral elections. Also, it's hard to know they extent of voter fraud. Due to they way votes are anonymised it is hard to catch anything that doesn't get caught on the day, so one should take the stats on low fraud with a pinch of salt.
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#226 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 16:38

Having grown up in Chicago and later living only a few blocks away from the head of the Chicago Mob not sure about all this worry about voter fraud. We love Daley and I think Rahm is very well liked.

BTW Sam Giancana, the mob boss, lived in a very very modest home.


By the end of the war, the Giancana family had moved from the city to a house in the affluent Chicago suburb of Oak Park.

He returned to his Oak Park home on June 17, 1975. Two days later, Sam Giancana was shot once in the back of the head and several more times up through the chin with a .22-caliber pistol while cooking in his basement. Though theories abounded as to who killed him (rival Mafiosi, CIA operatives nervous about his future testimony, one of many former girlfriends), no one was ever arrested in connection with the murder.


http://www.biography...iancana-9542088
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#227 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 19:16

1st debate!

\game on.
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#228 User is offline   dwar0123 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 19:36

View PostPhil, on 2012-October-03, 19:16, said:

1st debate!

\game on.

Going well for romney so far imo
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#229 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 19:37

who is debating?

It is moving posters to the other person?
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#230 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 19:44

Criticisms:

1. Obamas pithy anecdotes are not hitting the mark.

2. Romney is scoring a lot of points but getting bogged down in some details and losing his message.

But the worst:

3. Lehrer is doing a worse job than the replacement refs. Someone buy him a bell.
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#231 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 20:00

One reason he may lose his message is I am just not sure he has a core message.

As I mentioned before the Rep. party use to stand for Freedom but look at how many posters feel, feel strongly that it stands for getting rich or businesses.

I would hope he would frame his points in terms of Freedom and the trade off that often means in politics and the real world.
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#232 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 20:39

Did Romney even use the word freedom? If so I missed it.

I did hear in his closing remarks he was going to try and make me richer with his central govt policies.

Now I have to weigh which guy will make me richer, with the least effort on my part.
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#233 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 20:45

good time to buy obama i think lol. i read an article recently about the poll results changing very little after debates, basically debates do not matter. I believe that, but obama dropped 5 % after gettin whooped. Went up 2 % real fast after that, I assume someone figured out the market overadjusted.
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#234 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 21:40

"Any time a society becomes so complex as to require id cards, it is time to leave. The nice thing about space travel is that it makes it possible to leave." -- R. A. Heinlein, From the Notebooks of Lazarus Long.

The bad thing about space travel is it ain't here yet, so there's no place to go.
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#235 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 21:58

Did today change 150,000 votes in OHIO?

If no, then over.
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#236 User is offline   jonottawa 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 22:34

View PostPhil, on 2012-October-03, 19:44, said:

3. Lehrer is doing a worse job than the replacement refs. Someone buy him a bell.


Funny, I thought of the replacement refs metaphor too. (The first red flag for me was some inartfully worded question about 'trickle down' something or other.) And while he did a lousy job, he did it equally. He let Obama speak on way over time and he left the direction of the debate mostly up to the contestants (and Mitt was the only one to take advantage of that.)

Barry was godawful tonight. Someone should tell him you don't start playing prevent defense at the end of the third quarter. He sure wasn't fired up and ready to go. He made Willard look like the young guy with fire in his belly while he played the role of the befuddled old out of touch guy who didn't really want to be there.
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#237 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 22:38

I thought Romney was much better prepared than Obama. My guess is that the race will tighten up quite a bit.

But I'm even less clear about Romney's actual plans as he seems to have taken positions that vary from those he's been campaigning on. Certainly did not expect that he'd ditch his 20% tax cuts at this point in the race -- although that's a good thing in my opinion.
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#238 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 22:59

but i note not one poster claims this changed 150,000 votes in Ohio....
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#239 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-October-03, 23:49

for sake of discussion if it did.....granted......a long shot


we have a contest if correlations.
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#240 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2012-October-04, 03:58

i agree w/ mike... if ohio not changed, map won't be red enough
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